There is a high probability that BJP will topple the Uddhav Government in the next 48 hours

Political crisis is gripping Maharashtra, and the chair of first-time and so called best CM Uddhav Thackeray is in danger. Eknath Shinde, the current Minister of urban affairs in the MVA government is at the heart of the crisis. Which way will the political situation in the western state go, that would be delicious to watch.

However, we at TFI have some predictions to make. We predict that the BJP will topple the MVA government in the next 48 hours.

Eknath Shinde pulls the plug

Political turmoils in Maharashtra have grabbed the eyeballs of the whole nation since Tuesday after one of Thackeray’s loyalist Eknath Shinde went incommunicado with other 10 MLAs.

Once a trouble shooter of CM Uddhav Thackeray, Eknath Shinde took the step as he was reportedly unhappy with the way Shiv Sena was being run and the treatment being meted out to the old Shiv Sainiks, a term used for party workers.

On Wednesday that is today, the political crisis further deepened as Eknath Shinde along with his supporting MLAs has moved to Guwahati from Surat. After his arrival in the north-eastern state, Shinde claimed to have the support of 40 MLAs, further claiming that additional 10 MLAs will join him soon.

Shinde has made his mind clear through his social media posts. Eknath Shinde claimed that he will continue to be a ‘Bal Thackeray’ supporter and will never compromise with his principles for political gains. Reports suggest that Shinde insisted on renewing the decade old alliance with the BJP.

Read more: Maharashtra elections this time, will be delicious to watch

Shiv Sena fails at catching hints

Shinde’s step may come across as surprising to many. However, the crisis was in making since the day Uddhav Thackeray got into an unholy alliance with the “secular” parties. However, the recently concluded Rajya Sabha and MLC polls acted as trigger points.

Everything was not alright within the Shiv Sena camp; this was predicted way earlier than the Shinde’s rebellion by the political pundits. Cross-voting patterns were visible in both the recently concluded Rajya Sabha and MLC elections.

The Bhartiya Janta Party managed to win more seats than its own numbers would have otherwise permitted. Subtle signs became ominous at the time of MLC elections, clearly establishing pattern of cross-voting. In the Rajya sabha elections, the BJP got 27 non BJP MLAs to vote for its candidates.

The way ahead in Maharashtra

While most are confused about how the events are going to unfold in Maharashtra, we predict a few situations here.

First with least chances, that Eknath Shinde, the henchman for Uddhav Thackeray and hails from Thane, a Sena strong hold and four time MLA may compel Uddhav Thackeray to trace back its roots of Hindutva as established and come in the camp of BJP. However, will the BJP accept a backstabber like Uddhav?

The second situation may arise in accordance with the statement of Shiv Sena spokesperson Sanjay Raut. Amidst the crisis, Raut tweeted today morning that, “The political developments in Maharashtra are heading towards dismissal of Vidhan Sabha.”

His tweet clearly indicates that the first time ‘non-political’ CM Uddhav Thackeray may head towards dissolving the assembly amidst the coup in the party and may give up power. If this happens and the state goes into election, BJP has an edge in the state as the Shiv Sena has deceived its loyal ‘Hindutva’ vote bank and has hence lost the fistful votes, that Bal Thackeray brought in through his hard-line Hindutva.

Adding to that, Shiv Sena has never been a winning party and has always been constricted to the role of kingmaker. If the state goes into election, the secular parties like NCP and Congress are going to bear the brunt of the misdeeds of Uddhav Thackeray and the MVA government.

The third situation and the one with the highest probability is the one arising from Guwahati.

Read more: Devendra Fadnavis – The god of winning elections 

BJP may topple the MVA government in the next 48 hours

After reaching Guwahati, Eknath Shinde claimed that he has the support of 40 MLAs and 10 additional MLAs would be joining him very soon. If his claim is to be believed then there is high probability that the BJP government may topple the MVA government with ease, and the magic lies in numbers.

The total number of seats in Maharashtra is 288, and any party or coalition needs 145 seats to reach the majority. The current strength in the assembly is as follows; BJP 106, Shiv Sena 56, NCP 53 and Congress 44. Other independents put together with smaller parties constitute 29 seats. The current strength of the house is 287.

Shinde camp claims the support of 40 MLAs and numbers suggest that if the camp wins over 37 Sena MLAs that is two third of the total, the rebels won’t be disqualified under the anti-defection law. The BJP can get the Shinde faction to merge with itself in order to gain majority and topple the MVA government.

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