No matter what Biden decides, India won’t do a Turkey dance on S-400

• Now the question of imposing CAATSA is back again as India has maintained its neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine war.
• One thing is very clear that India will not do Turkey dance on S-400 whether the Biden administration decides to impose CAATSA or not.
• America will be very apprehensive of going against India given its rising global standing under the Modi government.
• While the Indo-US relationship is growing, India will never compromise its relationship with Russia.

By now, it is very much evident that the American administration uses every product of its companies as weapons in the war. From Google to Apple, the companies which get access to foreign markets in the name of innovation and efficiency, are used by the American administration to further its global agenda.

The American government did the same with India in 1999 after the country successfully tested nuclear weapons but was forced to lift those sanctions very soon. America also wants to monopolize India’s defence needs and has threatened to impose sanctions if India purchases weapons from Russia.

However, in October 2018, India had signed a USD 5 billion deal with Russia to buy five units of the S-400 air defence missile systems, despite a warning from the then Trump administration that going ahead with the contract may invite US sanctions.

Also Read: CAATSA and the curious case of Indo-US relations

The US has already imposed sanctions on Turkey under the CAATSA for the purchase of a batch of S-400 missile defence systems from Russia.

Now the question of imposing CAATSA is back again as India has maintained its neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine war. The US administration is required under domestic law, Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) to impose sanctions on any country that has significant transactions with Iran, North Korea, or Russia.

Responding to a question on possible CAATSA sanctions on India, Donald Lu, Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia on Wednesday said that it was for President Biden to decide whether to apply or waive sanctions on India.

“I can assure you that the administration will follow the CAATSA law and fully implement that law and will consult with Congress as we move forward with any of them. What unfortunately I am not able to say is to prejudge the decisions of the President or the (Secretary of State) on the waiver issue or on the sanctions issue, or whether Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will bear on that decision,” he said.

However, one thing that is very clear is that India will not do Turkey dance on S-400 whether the Biden administration decides to impose CAATSA or not. And this is very evident from the fact that India is considering rupee-rouble trade with Russia on oil, gas, and many other items including S-400.

Also Read: ‘They were asking for it, they got it,’ Trump finally imposes brutal sanctions on Turkey and Erdogan did not see it coming

America will be very apprehensive of going against India given its rising global standing under the Modi government. And the American officials themselves admit this.

“India is a really important security partner of ours now. And that we value moving forward that partnership and I hope that part of what happens with the extreme criticism that Russia has faced is that India will find it’s now time to further distances,” Lu said.

Previously, the Ministry of External Affairs has declared that India pursues an independent foreign policy that also applies to its defence acquisitions and supplies. India also made it clear that it is guided by national security interests in such matters. The statement came a day after the US State Department talked about CAATSA sanctions risk.

MEA spokesperson Arindam Bagchi too made it clear that while India has a comprehensive global strategic partnership with the US, it shares a special and privileged strategic partnership with Moscow.

Also Read: ‘We don’t care’ – India rips into the US for its unsolicited comments about S 400 deal

At the end of the day, the fact remains that Russia is one of India’s most trusted friends and defence partners. While the Indo-US relationship is growing, India will never compromise its relationship with Russia.

And it shouldn’t matter to the US. Even if Biden has any problems with Putin in Ukraine and the rest of Eastern Europe, what does it have to do with the purchase of Russian defence equipment by India? And how is this “destabilising” the Indo-Pacific? After all, the Indo-Russia partnership is only marginalising China in the region and if the Biden administration has any problem with this, then it seriously needs to get its diplomatic priorities right.

In any case, India will keep expanding its defence partnership with Russia, even beyond the S-400 deal. India could be the first customer of Russia’s super-advanced and lethal S-500 Prometey surface-to-air missile defence system.

As for Biden’s S-400 concerns, India is not supposed to make him understand something that he presumably doesn’t want to understand. If Biden wants to act as a reasonable partner with India in the Indo-Pacific, it will be good for the US. Otherwise, the US will get edged out in a multi-polar world.