In 2021, Outlook reported, “For the past two years, Rajasthan, which is a popular tourist destination, has often been in the news for a new form of hospitality often termed as ‘political tourism’ and ‘resort politics’.”
And now as per a recent report, the buzz in Rajasthan’s political corridors is that if the Congress happens to be in a position to form government in one or more states when results for elections in five states are declared on March 10, then its MLAs could find themselves staying in Jaipur’s five-star hotels and luxurious resorts. Bringing the MLAs to Rajasthan will be an apparent attempt to avoid poaching by competitors and the India Today report specifically mentions two states- Goa and Punjab.
So, how might the Punjab elections pan out? Let’s see.
Punjab headed towards a hung Assembly
This is the first conclusion. In case a political party is heading towards a landslide victory, it doesn’t need to resort to ‘resort politics.’ You win the elections; your leader meets the Governor, and you form the government.
And if you are losing by a fair margin, then also you don’t need ‘resort politics’ because no one will want to poach your MLAs. Poaching of prospective lawmakers and ‘resort politics’ come into the picture only when a state is heading towards a hung Assembly, and you know that you are going to give a good fight but fall short of the majority mark.
AAP may not form government in Punjab
Now, this is the second big takeaway. Opinion polls suggest that the AAP is going to come to power in Punjab with a comfortable majority. At least, most opinion polls believe that AAP will emerge as the single-largest party and leave the ruling Congress behind.
If Congress feels that it might have to keep its MLAs safe from poaching, it certainly means that the party does have a fair idea about giving a tough fight in Punjab. And contrary to opinion polls, AAP may not emerge as a clear winner.
The result could thus be something like this- Congress and AAP grab most of the seats in the 117-member Punjab Assembly. But neither of them gets enough seats to form the government on their own and end up with 40-50 seats each. Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) too gets a good number of seats and at least manages to retain its tally of 18 seats in the 2022 Assembly polls.
Who will form the government?
And the biggest question in case of a fractured verdict will be – who will form the government? If no party reaches the majority mark, coalition politics will definitely come into the picture.
Let’s go through all probabilities-
- AAP will need allies. So, it can tie up with the SAD or the BJP. An AAP-BJP alliance is definitely not a possibility. So, an AAP-SAD government could come to power.
- A Congress-AAP coalition is unlikely because when two parties have big numbers, then deciding the CM face does become an issue. Again, Congress and BJP cannot tie-up. SAD-Congress coalition too is unlikely because of their differences. But at the end of the day, it is politics, and anything can happen.
- Finally, there is another possibility of BSP winning 4-5 seats out of 20 seats that it is contesting in Punjab in alliance with SAD. In such a scenario, both SAD and BSP could join the Punjab Lok Congress-BJP alliance. With the farmers’ issue also getting resolved, SAD and BJP may be ready to get together. So, in the fight between two big parties- AAP and Congress, the NDA might emerge as a dark horse and expand with support from other parties to form a government.
Read more: Punjab’s four-way contest presents a huge window of opportunity for the BJP
In any case, Punjab is most likely headed for a split verdict and we might be looking at different post-poll combinations when it comes to forming government in the North Indian state.