The Aam Aadmi Party is confident it will win Punjab. But will it? On social media, many have already declared the party a winner in the border state, which is witnessing an unprecedented four-way fight. Does AAP have it in it to win an entire state – all on its own? Sure, it might put up a good fight. Its seat share will most likely increase as well. In 2017, Aam Aadmi Party had won 20 seats. It was a stunning performance by a party that had just entered Punjab. AAP displaced the Shiromani Akali Dal to become the second-largest party in the state assembly.
Could it be that AAP has maxed out already? AAP has been campaigning in Punjab for pretty much one year now. It is determined to win the state. But a lot of equations are going to spoil the party for Arvind Kejriwal. A lot for the party is also riding on how it performs in Punjab’s Malwa. Unless AAP sweeps Malwa, it is not forming the next government in Punjab.
The four-way fight in Punjab between the Congress, AAP, SAD-BSP alliance and BJP-PLC alliance will most probably throw up a hung house. And then, there is also the Samyukt Samaj Party – comprising of the various farm unions, which can play spoilsport for the Aam Aadmi Party. AAP is banking heavily on Jatt Sikhs this time. And SSP promises to cut such votes away from AAP.
Besides, there are four other big reasons why AAP might be in for a big surprise in Punjab.
- Bhagwant Mann is a Jatt, but he is not really chief ministerial material. He has no qualities of leading a state like Punjab. And to top it all, Bhagwant Mann has an alcohol dependency problem. By all estimates, Arvind Kejriwal and many others within the party do not want Mann to be AAP’s chief ministerial face in Punjab. Yet, he is the tallest AAP leader in the state, and ignoring him would translate into a pre-poll organisational decimation for the party.
- Youth support for Aam Aadmi Party is being exaggerated, mostly by its own IT cell. AAP is fighting the election in Punjab with perception. AAP’s X-factor has always been the youth, but that is not really an assured mainstay for the party in Punjab any longer. The party wants to convince the people of Punjab that it is winning the elections, and so, they should not vote for anybody else as they’d be wasting their vote. In a state like Punjab, where people don’t like being told what to do, such a strategy could tremendously backfire.
- Hindus are not going to vote for the Aam Aadmi Party. While Kejriwal talks about 84, he conveniently chooses to ignore the years which preceded 1984. Hindus in Punjab face the minority complex, which is why they will vote for safety. Arvind Kejriwal hardly motivates any confidence among the state’s Hindus, who will vote for either the Congress, or BJP-PLC combine.
Read more: Punjab’s four-way contest presents a huge window of opportunity for the BJP
- AAP will be a vote cutter for Congress and SAD. Arvind Kejriwal can make a party lose in Punjab, but he cannot make his party win an entire assembly. He simply does not have the resources needed to make that possible.
With just a month left for the elections, there is no way Aam Aadmi Party will be able to address these issues and stage an impressive performance all on its own. And then, in 2017 as well, AAP had made a big impression on social media that it was set to sweep the state. Yet, it was sent packing with 20 seats alone. This time too, a similar fate awaits the party in Punjab.