An old proverb says- He who earnestly seeks good, finds favour, but trouble will come to him who seeks evil. This is exactly going to be the case for BHIM Army hooligan Chandrasekhar Azad Ravan in the UP state assembly elections in 2022. His newly formed Azad Samaj Party is about to commit a colossal blunder, which in turn will open the floodgates for BJP to stay in power for 10-15 more years.
AIMIM head Asauddin Owaisi and Om Prakash Rajbhar, a former minister under Yogi Adityanath, met Chandrashekhar Azad Ravan in a hotel in Lucknow. This meeting is politically crucial as UP state elections are nearing. It is being speculated that Suhuldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (SBSP) led Bhagidari Sankalp morcha wants Chandrasekhar Azad Ravan in its alliance. The Bhagidari Sankalp morcha is an opportunistic nexus formed to stop the chariot of development in Uttar Pradesh. It comprises of Suhuldev Bhartiya Samaj Party, AIMIN, Bharatiya Vanchit Samaj Party, Bhartiya Manav Samaj Party, Janata Kranti Party (R) and Rashtra Uday Party and 4 more small parties. This alliance is constituted to contest UP elections in 2022.
While Owaisi led AIMIM claims to be working for Muslims, SBSP claims to be working mainly for Schedule castes, while Chandrasekhar led party claims that it is mainly focused on already given rights of Scheduled castes, Scheduled tribes and Other backward classes. The most common theme along all three parties is that they are involved in the appeasement of Muslims. In the 2017 UP state assembly elections, SBSP had contested 8 seats out of which they could only win 4, while AIMIM could not win any seat despite contesting from 38 seats. The combined vote share of AIMIM and SBSP was 0.9 per cent. SBSP had contested the elections by siding with the BJP in 2017. Chandrasekhar did not have a political party in 2017. All other constituencies of Bhagidari Sankal Morcha have virtually zero presence on the ground.
While it is excellent news for Dalits that there are so many parties standing up for them, but like in the past, most of them have turned out to be vote bank vultures. The SCs, STs, OBCs have long been fooled by Mulayam Singh and Mayawati led SP and BSP respectively. These communities have lost trust in both SP and BSP. Even after allying, SP-BSP suffered a humiliating defeat in the 2019 general elections. Now with Chandrasekhar being talked about as a replacement of Mayawati led BSP, the future is bleak for parties counting on votes of SCs, STs, Dalits and OBCs.
While OBCs, Dalits, Tribals and Muslims combined constitute about 80 per cent of the UP population, Yogi Adityanath has already made a big dent in these communities. His huge success in the 2017 assembly elections and 2019 general elections is a testament to that. Only SP and BSP alliance are in a position to challenge Yogi Adityanath ruled BJP government, but they have too many differences to resolve. It is a fact that SP-BSP divided vote bank has been a beneficial factor for BJP in UP. Now, AIMIN, SBSP and Chandrasekhar’s party are going to create further division in this vote bank. This division would turn out to be a jackpot for BJP in the Uttar Pradesh elections, 2022.