Asaduddin Owaisi, the leader of AIMIM, has said that his party will field its candidates on 100 seats in Uttar Pradesh. He also clarified that his party has not allied with any other party except Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party of Om Prakash Rajbhar.
उ.प्र. चुनाव को लेकर मैं कुछ बातें आपके सामने रख देना चाहता हूँ:-
1) हमने फैसला लिया है कि हम 100 सीटों पर अपना उम्मीदवार खड़ा करेंगे, पार्टी ने उम्मीदवारों को चुनने का प्रक्रिया शुरू कर दी है और हमने उम्मीदवार आवेदन पत्र भी जारी कर दिया है।1/2
— Asaduddin Owaisi (@asadowaisi) June 27, 2021
The entry of AIMIM in alliance with Rajbhar’s SBSP is a big blow to the electoral prospects of the Samajwadi Party because Muslim votes and Rajbhar (a community having significant numbers in Eastern Uttar Pradesh) votes will be divided. Rajbhars have traditionally voted for SP, moved to BJP in 2017, but a section is not happy with the BJP and Om Prakash Rajbhar, their tallest leader, made a new party. SP was hoping to capitalize on the Rajbhar community’s dissatisfaction with BJP but not even that plan is finished.
Owaisi has already spoiled the show for RJD led Mahagathbadhan in the Bihar assembly election 2020 and he plans to do the same for SP in Uttar Pradesh. In the northern states, Owaisi allies to small caste-based parties and this helps him to win on Muslim-dominated seats.
The rivals of BJP – SP & BSP – are already performing very poorly in Uttar Pradesh. In the recent Uttar Pradesh Panchayat elections, BJP scored a big victory over its nearest rival, Samajwadi Party. So far, the results of 17 Zila Panchayat Adhyaksha (District Council chairperson) have been declared and BJP has won all except one, Etawah – the family bastion for Akhilesh Yadav.
In Western Uttar Pradesh, where the party was supposed to lose given the intensity of the ongoing farmers’ protests in the region, BJP won all seats. In fact, in many districts including Agra, Ghaziabad, Gautam Buddha Nagar, Amroha, and Meerut, BJP’s candidates have been elected unopposed.
This shows that despite all the media hullabaloo about BJP’s electoral prospects being harmed due to the farmers’ protests, it is still the most popular party among the electorates. Except for the protestors with ulterior motives, farmers do understand that the farm bills would free them from the tyranny of mandis and end up boosting agricultural income.
BJP proved invincible despite the manufactured dissent and protest. The entry of Owaisi makes things worse for SP and BSP because he would prove to be ‘vote katua’ especially on the seats where Muslim voters are in significant numbers.
In 2017 Assembly polls, BJP managed to receive a gigantic mandate by securing a 41.4 per cent vote share, which translated to the party winning 325 seats in a 403-member state assembly. Nobody had anticipated such a huge wave of Yogi Adityanath in the state and the opposition and detractors were left dumbfounded at the magnitude of the victory.
Fast forward four years, Yogi has become the tallest leader in the country. From developing UP into an industrial state to reducing crime to tackling the first and second wave of the coronavirus pandemic effectively, UP has grown strength to strength with Yogi at the helm.
As reported by TFI, according to an ABP-C Voter survey conducted in March earlier this year, if elections were to held now, BJP would storm into power once again. The BJP is projected to win 289 seats in the 403-seat Uttar Pradesh Assembly. Meanwhile, SP is projected to be the second-largest party with 59 seats followed by BSP with 38 seats but not posing any real challenge to the BJP.
BJP can afford to let its guard down and go easy on the election preparations but ‘ruthless’ seems to be the keyword passed along from the party high command. The preparations have begun and despite the sorry situation of the opposition especially the BSP, the BJP does not want to leave any loophole in its electoral preparedness. There is no doubt that Yogi is storming back to power, the only question is, by what margin?