In the current state of global affairs, there are three countries that will matter most in the upcoming years – the United States, China and India. These three are the three of the world’s largest economies in terms of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), the largest countries in terms of population and the countries that have internal strength and power projection capacity to lead the world.
The United States, the current global superpower that has dominated the world for the last three decades with no rival, is in a state of decline. Donal Trump tried to “Make America Great Again”, but the ship sailed in the opposite direction in 2020 and now Biden is undoing all the gains made during the Trump administration.
As per various estimates, China shall overtake America in terms of GDP (market rates) in the late 2020s or early 2030s. With China being an authoritarian country, the power in hands of the government is more than that of the power in the hands of the American government. So, in terms of national power, China shall overtake America in this decade or in the early years of the next decade.
China is in a downward spiral, not just economically but socially too. There is a fight between 3 factions – Maoists, Market friendly peeps (Deng faction) and liberals. Liberals have the least clout as they believe in dissolving the CCP. The real fight is between the first two.
— Atul Kumar Mishra (@TheAtulMishra) April 9, 2021
On the other hand, China, which is expected to overtake the United States, is facing unprecedented internal fighting in the Communist Party of China, the party that owns the country. Nevertheless, China shall overtake the United States by the end of this decade. But, the faultlines that are emerging in Chinese society due to the One-party system will constrain the country from becoming a global superpower.
Given its political system and mercantilist style of economy, no country is ready to rally behind China. So, even if it becomes an economy bigger than the United States, the smaller countries around the world will never agree to follow its lead.
Moreover, the internal fighting between Maoists (like Xi Jinping who believes in Communist party-led political and economic system), those who believe in Deng Xiaoping’s idea of Communist with Chinese characteristic and liberals (who want a Western-style political system and political economy) will ensure that China does not survive for long in its current form.
Therefore, while China will definitely overtake the United States as an economic powerhouse, it will never become a global leader given its political system and sustainability issues.
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Currently, India is behind the United States and China as far as an economic or military power is concerned. But, given the demographic dividend (median age in India is 28 while in China and the United States it is around 39) enjoyed by India, the prospects of the country for the next three decades are higher than the two competitors.
The young and skilled force and a strong decisive government that has no qualms with the Capitalist economic system shall push India’s economy to greater heights. The country is expected to post double-digit growth in the ongoing fiscal year, the only major economy in the world to do so. Moreover, given the democratic economic system and a large English-speaking population, the smaller countries around the world shall follow India’s lead instead of some authoritarian government that believes in imposition rather than cooperation.