When Prime Minister Modi announced a nationwide lockdown exactly twenty days ago with the intention of breaking the chain of the spread of Coronavirus, a question that hovered in many minds was what after the lockdown? Entering a lockdown was relatively easy for policymakers because all economic activity had to be brought to a halt, except necessary supplies, in a pre-planned manner.
The post-lockdown strategy was always a tricky issue, as the benefits of the lockdown could have easily dissipated if normalcy was restored in a single stroke. On the other hand, the economic shutdown cannot be continued indefinitely and some measure of normalcy has to be restored sooner or later.
How far India will be able to carry the benefits of this lockdown that has restricted the number of cases across several parts of India depends a lot on the post April 14 strategy.
We are getting the first hints of how we will be approaching social distancing once the present leg of the lockdown announced by Prime Minister Modi on March 23 comes to an end tomorrow.
As per inputs, the Centre is likely to demarcate the country into Red, Orange and Green zones, depending upon the number of Coronavirus cases in the demarcated areas. Red zones, of course, referring to zones that have the highest number of COVID-19 cases and are at risk of developing greater clusters.
Orange zones, being the ones that are at moderate risk and finally Green zones are the safe zones with no COVID-19 cases. Limited services might be allowed in such zones so that economic activity can start picking up to some extent.
In the Red zones that will include hotspots or districts with Coronavirus clusters, there will be strictly no activity and a complete lockdown will prevail, whereas in Orange zones- those where there has been no increase in the number of positive COVID-19 cases, limited public transport will be allowed, along with harvesting of farm products.
In Green zones, the Medium and Small-Scale Enterprises (MSME) will be allowed to function but with strict social distancing norms in place as well as in-house lodging facilities. Agricultural activities will also be allowed to restart in the Green zones.
According to Economic Times, officers who attended the marathon four-hour long conference between Prime Minister Modi and the Chief Ministers have revealed that schools and colleges would remain shut but some small-scale industries and liquor shops might be allowed to function.
An exception is likely to be made for liquor shops, as most of the Chief Ministers have been arguing that liquor is major revenue-generating source for their states, however, sources say that malls and restaurants would continue to remain closed.
While there is believed to be near unanimity when it comes to extending the 21-day lockdown till April 30, there are already some indications of the lockdown getting somewhat relaxed.
The government has reportedly decided to get the economy back on tracks by allowing fifteen industries to re-commence operations, along with trucks, repair services, and street vendors as the country moves into what is being anticipated as the extended lockdown phase.
Industry Secretary Guruprasad Mohapatra wrote to Home Secretary Ajay Bhalla that the lockdown has been in force since March 23, “however, it is felt that certain more activities with reasonable safeguards should be allowed once a final decision on extension and nature of lockdown is taken by the Central government. These new activities are essential to improve economic activity and provide liquidity in the hands of the people.”
These services and industries are, of course, going to be allowed to reopen in the context of the categorisation of the country into Red, Orange and Green zones. What this means is restoration of economic activity in safe zones as compared to severe lockdown tantamount to sealing in the affected areas or the high-risk zones.
Some states have already taken up this model suggested by the Centre, which falls in line with Prime Minister Modi’s mantra “Jaan Bhi, Jahan Bhi” which he gave to the Chief Ministers during the marathon conference. What Prime Minister Modi meant was that India will safeguard public health as well as its economy in a major balancing act as we move out of the first phase of the lockdown.
In Maharashtra, the lockdown has been already extended to April 30 and the state has also been demarcated into three zones- Red, Orange and Green as per the Centre’s recommendation.
Eight districts have been placed in the Green zone, districts with upto 15 COVID-19 cases have been placed in the Orange zone and as many as eleven districts have been placed in the Red zone in the worst-affected state of India.
In the Union Territory of Jammu & Kashmir as well, the administration has declared 20 villages as “Red zones”. The state has a total of 207 Coronavirus cases and with declaration of Red Zones, the Union Territory seems to have adopted the Centre’s suggestions for the post April 14 Coronavirus strategy.
Meanwhile, sources say that the Chief Ministers remained opposed to large-scale inter-state travel during the Prime Minister’s conference with all the Chief Ministers. Thus, only limited domestic air and train services will be allowed and that too in select sectors with upto 30 per cent passenger capacity. Metro services could also restart in cities like Delhi but only at 30 per cent capacity in order to maintain social distancing.
In cities like Delhi, where public transport services are currently operating the bare minimum, such services could be enhanced from minimum to optimal.
In the coming days, we are going to witness a shift from the complete 21-day lockdown to a more strategic and critical period of limited lockdown that will seek to ensure economic recovery while still maintaining the spirit of social distancing.
What the categorisation also does is, help the authorities specifically recognise high-risk districts that need all the attention. Greater surveillance and aggressive isolation of the Red zones will allow life to come back to normal in the Orange and Green zones. The Red zones will themselves turn Orange/ Green with passage of time.
India cannot afford to forgo social distancing, but it also cannot afford to shut down indefinitely. The mighty Dragon is trying to strongarm countries across the world and India is no exception.
The way People’s Bank of China acquired 1.75 crore shares of India’s lending major HDFC, it is clear that Beijing will target Indian companies that have suffered setbacks due to the ongoing economic slowdown triggered by Coronavirus and the inevitable lockdown.
India has come out of the Coronavirus Pandemic quite successfully till now which places it in a position to lead the world order from here on, but if India has to make the most of it, then it must ensure that its economy starts limping back to normal. From here on, India will continue observing social distancing but some measure of economic activity will also be restored.