JD(S), the Karnataka based party of former Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda, is set to be buried forever as most of the senior party leaders are hitching their bandwagons to ruling BJP or the major opposition, Congress. HD Kumaraswamy, son of former Prime Minister Gowda, was chief minister of the Congress-JD(S) alliance government from 23 May 2018 to 23 July 2019, which was formed in desperation to keep BJP, the single largest party in the 224 seats legislative assembly, out of power.
However, after almost six months out of power, the party is in disarray, as the Congress party, which offered it the CM post despite having a larger number of seats, is poaching one after other senior leader of the party. The Vokkaliga community, the majority support base of JD(S), now finds D K Shivakumar of Congress party more suitable to be the community’s leader than members of the Gowda family.
Karnataka’s politics is majorly divided between two communities and two regions, with North Karnataka being dominated by Lingayat community- which has tilted to BJP under the leadership of B. S. Yediyurappa- while the South Karnataka is dominated by the Vokkaliga community which has traditionally voted for JD(S) but is now aligning with D K Shivakumar led Congress.
Some other senior JD(S) leaders are also looking to join BJP, the ruling party in the state. As per reports, GT Deve Gowda, who defeated Siddaramaiah of Congress on a JD(S) ticket, might join BJP now or ahead of assembly polls.
GT Deve Gowda was disgruntled by the party decision to allot him higher education ministry while he was looking at some portfolio related to rural development. He was also not happy with rising stature of SR Mahesh, who also comes from his district, in the party. He asked for a ticket for his son in December bypolls, but the party leadership did not oblige. Dissatisfied with these reasons, he has stopped attending the party meeting and gatherings. He also met with BJP national general secretary (organisation) BL Santhosh a few days ago, which augmented the speculation of him joining BJP in near future.
JD(S) has been an important player in the politics of Karnataka for almost two decades, winning 18-21 per cent votes in 2004, 2008, 2013, and 2018 assembly election and double-digit vote share in general election. In the 2013 assembly election, the party won 40 seats and 37 seats in 2018. However, the party’s tally was reduced to 34 after it lost all seats in the by-polls.
The alliance with Congress proved fatal for JD(S) as the community found DK Shivakumar more capable and shifted to grand old party. Shivakumar, who comes from the Vokkaliga community, raised the community’s interest and issues prominently, and proved an important role in running the alliance for more than a year. He is a more astute and cunning politician than Kumaraswamy is by any metric, and therefore, the core voter base of JD(S) is set to shift to Shivakumar led Congress.
The bypoll results have proved that the JD(S) has lost its core voter base in the form of Vokkaligas. Losing its core voter base is catastrophic for any regional satrap. While the BJP and the Congress have loyal vote banks, it is the regional parties, especially small regional parties like the JD(S) that must cling to their core voter base in order to remain politically relevant. However, much to its disadvantage, the JD(S) has ended up disenchanting its core voter base itself. The Deve Gowda led party has lost favour with the Vokkaligas, its core voter base and that might have just sealed its fate.