With Jyotiraditya Scindia’s resignation from primary membership of Congress, the party might get wiped out from the state forever. The historical examples suggest that whenever the party’s tallest leader from any state deserts it, and joins the opposition or floats a new party; the chances of recovery for Congress are very little. It got wiped out from many states in similar fashion.
In West Bengal, Congress used to be the major opposition of the Communist alliance for decades, and with the entry of Mamata Banerjee, it had real chances of toppling the Communist parties from the state. But, dissatisfied with central leadership as it could not fulfill her ambitions, Mamata Banerjee floated a new party called Trinmool Congress and finished the Congress party. Today the grand old party comes fourth in terms of political clout in the state, after TMC, BJP, Communist alliance, and Congress.
Similarly, Congress could never make entry in UP and Bihar once it got wiped out in late 1980s. Today, it is not even a major opposition in these states and ranks fourth. In Bihar, Congress is fourth or fifth most important party after BJP, RJD, JD(U), and probably LJP too. And in UP, it ranks behind BJP, BSP, and SP.
In Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, it is still second most important party but in another Himalayan state (now a union territory), it was wiped out in similar fashion by the regional parties. In Jammu region, it was routed by BJP, and now it ranks fourth in terms of political clout in union territory of Jammu & Kashmir.
In Punjab, the party is ruling the state, and had been ruling party or the major opposition in its political history. However, AAP, which wiped out Congress votes in Delhi, is making grand entry in the state, and once Amarinder Singh falls, probably AAP will take over the Congress votes in Punjab too.
In Delhi, it is well known fact that AAP came at the expense of Congress while BJP’s vote share remained intact. In Rajasthan, Congress is the ruling party and has been either ruling or primary opposition so far. Same goes with neighboring Gujarat.
In Maharashtra, Sharad Pawar, party’s most powerful leader, left in late 1990s to float NCP as the Congress could not give space to his ambitions and since then Congress could not come into power in the state on its own. The party which ruled the states for majority of its political history except a decade is now reduced to fourth place with 42 seats in the 288 assembly, just like in UP, Bihar, West Bengal, and Jammu and Kashmir.
In Karnataka, it is major opposition but in the neighboring Kerala, it has to share power with many regional parties like IUML, Kerala Congress etc for opposition or for the government. Still it remains the second most important party with lesser clout.
In Tamil Nadu, the Dravidian politics wiped out the Congress and since last five decades DMK and AIADMK control the government and opposition.
In Andhra Pradesh, the grand old party could nurture the ambitions of Jaganmohan Reddy, who was asking for CM chair after death of father, but the Congress high command refused. Ultimately, Reddy floated a new party YSRCP in the name of his father and today Congress is reduced to fourth place in the state.
In Telangana it is still the second most important party but BJP is trying to push it to margins. In Odisha too, it is second most important party but BJP is trying to push it to third to grab the place of major opposition. In Jharkhand too, Congress is reduced to third place after JMM and BJP.
In Madhya Pradesh, the situation could be similar in the next few years. Madhya Pradesh was among the first states to have a non-Congress government after 1967 assembly election when all opposition parties came together to form the government of Samyukta Vidhayak Dal.
In 1977 too, Janata Party government came to power in the state. In 1990, BJP came to power in the state for the first time but the Congress came to power once again in 1993 and Digvijay Singh became CM. The party came to power once again with Singh’s infamous social engineering but lost in the 2003 assembly election. After that BJP came to power for next 15 years. It lost the power in 2018 by a thin margin given anti-incumbency of one and a half decades, and Kamal Nath was made CM despite the fact the Congress won due to efforts of Scindia.
But the grand old party could not nurture the political ambition of Scindia and now he had joined BJP. Had Scindia floated a new party, it was very much possible that Congress would have become third or fourth important party in the state, but it is still highly possible given the disarray in the party, as previous examples of many states like Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal suggests.