BJP’s tsunami in Karnataka Bypoll is a reflection of how things are going to turn out in Maharashtra

In what ought to be described as a major shot in the arm for the BJP, the party has won in 12 out of 15 legislative constituencies that went to bypolls in the state. With this the BJP has maintained its majority in the Karnataka legislative assembly. The party needed to win a minimum of seven out of the 15 seats that went to bypolls in order to maintain majority and for the BJP government to survive. However, the landslide victory has ensured that the Yediyurappa government is able to sail through in the 224 member Karnataka Assembly. 17 seats had fallen vacant after disqualification of the Congress-JD(S) MLAs who had turned rebel during the days of the Congress-JD (S) government in the state.

Out of the 17 vacant seats, 15 had gone to bypolls and after this victory the BJP sits comfortably in the Assembly given that it already had 105 party MLAs and the support of one independent MLA taking its tally to 106 MLAs. Now, with the likely addition of 12 MLAs, its tally is going to go upto 118 MLAs in the 224 member Assembly. This is a severe jolt for the Congress and the JD(S) who have been absolutely decimated. Dinesh Gundu Rao has reportedly resigned as the Karnataka Congress chief, whereas Siddaramaiah has also resigned as the Congress legislature party leader following the humiliating defeat at the hands of the BJP.

It is important to mention here that the Kumaraswamy goverment had lost the trust vote 105-99 in favour of the BJP, earlier this year. Before the political crisis had hit the coalition government, the Congress-JD(S) alliance boasted of 118 MLAs {78(Congress)+ 37(JDS) + 1(BSP) +1(IND) + 1(nominated)} in the assembly. However, a spate of resignations by the JD(S) and the Congress MLAs had triggered the downfall of the Congress-JD(S) coalition government.

Now, the Congress and the JD(S) have been further decimated after the bypolls, and this would have hurt the two parties in a big way. The resignations that immediately followed show how humiliating the defeat is for the Congress.

What makes this defeat that much more threatening for the Congress is the fact that while the Congress has lost in Karnataka, its tremors are also going to be felt in Maharashtra. Along with the Congress, the NCP and the Shiv Sena must have also been unnerved by BJP’s exploits in the state of Karnataka, because the events of Karnataka bear striking similarity with the recent political crisis in the state of Maharashtra.

The downfall of the Kumaraswamy government was a certainty owing to the unholy nature of the Congress-JD(S) alliance in the state. While the people of Karnataka had voted in favour of a BJP government, which fell just short of majority, the Congress and JD(S) which had no pre-poll alliance joined hands to form the government even though they had been discarded by the electorate. Ultimately, the two parties were not able to keep their house in order.

A government which had its basis in electoral betrayal could not survive for very long. In the state of Maharashtra, the electoral betrayal behind the NCP-Congress-Shiv Sena government is even more manifest and patent. The people of Maharashtra had voted overwhelmingly in the favour of the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance which comfortably crossed the majority mark. The BJP with 105 seats and the Shiv Sena with 56 seats got a combined tally of 161 seats in the 288-member Assembly. The electoral mandate was clearly in favour of Devendra Fadnavis as the Chief Minister of the state with Shiv Sena as the coalition partner. And this is what was promised to the electorate during the election campaign as well.

However, by joining hands with its ideological rivals the Shiv Sena betrayed the BJP, its own ideology and most importantly the electoral mandate. The NCP-Congress-Shiv Sena coalition government is thus functioning in defiance of the will of the people just like the Congress-JD(S) government was functioning in Karnataka. We have already witnessed an exodus of Shiv Sena workers to the BJP and a sense of disillusionment is already setting in.

Moreover, the three way division of cabinet portfolios in the state might end up creating a sense of dissatisfaction across all the three outfits. As such, it is not going to be easy for Uddhav Thackeray, who has already been overwhelmed by the manner in which NCP seems set to take hold of all the main cabinet berths, to keep a three-party alliance functioning and that too when it is based on political expedience rather than ideological semblance.

What should also send warning bells ringing for the coalition government in Maharashtra is the manner in which former Maharashtra CM has reacted to the BJP victory in Karnataka. He has tweeted, “In the very first chance they get, this is how voters react to opportunist politics & stealing of mandate by rejected parties by coming together for the sake of power! #KarnatakaBypolls result proves that people won’t tolerate if someone tries to play with public mandate & wish!”

Fadnavis’ reaction suggests that what happened in Karnataka might be replicated in the state of Maharashtra, and this does not seem far-fetched at all. Karnataka was a case of two opportunistic parties coming together to defy the electoral mandate, whereas deceit is even more patent in Maharashtra where a political outfit deserted its long time ally and pre-poll partner only out of sheer megalomania. The other two political outfits- the Congress and the NCP joined the coalition as a manifestation of political opportunism.

There are already signs of an exodus in the Shiv Sena and if the Maharashtra has to go for bypolls like Karnataka, then the BJP will again be at an advantage with public sympathy, even more than what we witnessed in Karnataka, for the party and negative sentiment against the three other parties. Karnataka has thus shaped up Maharashtra for yet another sharp political twist.