The sudden turn of events in Maharashtra has left everyone stunned. The BJP government used Rule-12- for the second time in political history of the country- to end the President rule, and formed the government, with the help of NCP’s Ajit Pawar, who took oath as deputy chief minister.
The big challenge for BJP and Ajit Pawar is to prove majority in the assembly. The Governor has asked Fadnavis to prove majority till November 30.
There are three possible scenarios which could emerge as BJP tries to prove majority in the house.
First scenario:
The Maharashtra legislative assembly has 288 seats and any party or alliance needs support of 145 MLAs to form a majority government. In the first possible scenario, BJP will prove the majority with- 105 of its own MLAs, 8 to 15 Independents, and 25 to 50 MLAs of NCP. In this case, Fadnavis government will easily prove its majority and BJP-NCP alliance would run the government for next five years, possibly.
Second scenario:
In the second scenario- if NCP is able to retain the control of 49 MLAs, as claimed by the party in the press; it will be difficult for the BJP to form the government. Even if the party is supported by 5 NCP MLAs who are with Ajit Pawar, and 15 Independents go with it, BJP would need the support of at least 20 MLAs of Shiv Sena and Congress to form the government. It is very much possible that many MLAs of the Congress and Shiv Sena might switch sides which will ultimately pave way for Fadnavis to remain in power for another five years.
The MLAs of Shiv Sena have ideological affinity towards the cause of Hindutva, and on any given day, they would prefer supporting BJP over any other party. When two ideologically opposed parties come together to form government, it does not necessarily mean that the MLAs and party workers also join hands and discord among the MLAs and workers tend to surface soon.
The Shiv Sena MLAs enjoy very cordial relationship with Devendra Fadnavis and were happy with his tenure as Chief Minister. These MLAs will be the easiest catch for BJP, in case the party goes for the defection route.
Third scenario:
In the third scenario, Maharashtra CM Fadnavis might not be able to prove majority and he would have to vacate the chair. In that case, the Shiv Sena, Sharad Pawar faction of NCP, and Congress will get a chance to form the government in the state. This would be a big embarrassment for BJP and Amit Shah. Given the political shrewdness of Amit Shah, and his previous track record, it is very unlikely that BJP will concede so easily. Amit Shah will probably find a trick to outmaneuver the opposition parties, as he has done so far.