The Maharashtra assembly election, for which the date is to be announced by end of this week, is set to witness a fundamental shift in BJP-Shiv Sena alliance (popularly known as Yuti). For the first time in the last three decades, Shiv Sena is going to play the role of junior partner in the alliance, if it does not want to contest alone.
Devendra Fadnavis, the young Chief Minister of the state has made it very clear that BJP will play the role of big brother; the party said that it will not contest less than 153 seats. Therefore, Shiv Sena is left with only 117 seats, as 18 sets are reserved for other alliance partner, in the 288 assembly seat state.
“The seat-sharing negotiation between BJP and Sena is still under discussion. There is deadlock over both the formula and seats. But the BJP has made it clear there was no question of 50:50 seat-sharing deal. The BJP will contest more seats than Sena in the Assembly polls,” said a senior BJP leader.
The BJP-Shiv Sena alliance came into existence in 1989, when late Hindutva icon- Bal Thackeray and BJP national secretary came together to take on Congress. The deal was that BJP being a national party would contest a larger number of seats in general elections while Shiv Sena with limited base in Maharashtra, would contest agreater number of seats in assembly elections.
The alliance tasted success very soon, and overthrew Congress government in 1995 assembly election. BJP had contested on 119 seats, and won 65 while Shiv Sena won 73 out of 169 seats. The aforementioned formula of seat sharing continued till 2014 Maharashtra assembly election when BJP broke the alliance because Shiv Sena was not ready to give ‘equal’ number of seats.
Shiv Sena had benefitted from Modi wave in 2014 and most the seats the party won was in the name of prime ministerial candidate. Uddav Thackeray- the dynast who took over the reins of the party from Balasaheb is not popular among electorates, and has no standing of his own. Therefore, BJP had asked for ‘equal’ number of seats and its leader was more popular, and the party had greater chances of winning. But Shiv Sena denied leverage.
Following that, BJP contested alone, and won 122 sets while Shiv Sena managed to won only 63 seats, almost half of BJP. The parties came together in post poll alliance to form government, as no party had a clear majority. Devendra Fadnavis, the party MLA from Nagpur became the Chief Minister.
In the last five years, Fadnavis has crafted a development oriented leader image, with immense popularity of his own. The state party cadre is confident that the party can win the upcoming assembly election on its own, and therefore Shiv Sena is forced to play second fiddle. Shiv Sena lacks a popular leader, and organizational machinery to fight against the national party. If it decides to go alone, and field candidates against the BJP, the party will definitely lose heavily.
The aggressive stance of the party on seat sharing in Maharashtra is a lesson to BJP’s alliance partners in other states where the party had played second fiddle so far. This is a signal to Nitish Kumar led JD(U) in Bihar and Badal led Akali Dal in Punjab- BJP will no longer play role of junior alliance partner.
In fact, BJP’s relationship with ally JD(U) has been in troubled waters ever since PM Modi’s massive election victory in 2019. JD(U) was offered one cabinet minister rank in the run-up to the formation of the council of ministers, however, JD(U) given its expectation of getting more than one seat in the Union Council of Ministers had declined that offer. JD(U) jumped from just 2 seats in the 2014 general election to a total of 16 seats this general election, which they fought together with the BJP. Evidently, the alliance has helped JD(U) to improve its electoral standing by many folds, however, the BJP saw various strong seats being given to the JD(U) as part of alliance agreements.
There has been massive speculation that Nitish Kumar might take the leap and opt out of the alliance. For the BJP, the scenario of JD(U) taking off from the alliance might only further aid BJP’s electoral hold in the state.
In fact, the BJP workers want the party to go ahead alone for the 2020 assembly election or make JD(U) a junior partner, and therefore have the chief ministerial candidate from BJP. The party karyakartas have asked for a young chief ministerial candidate to replace the 68 year old Nitish Kumar.
A few days ago, senior BJP leader and former Union minister Sanjay Paswan echoed the sentiments of party workers and said Nitish Kumar “should now move to the Centre” and leave Bihar to “BJP and the second-rung JDU leadership”.
“Nitish Kumar has now been the Chief Minister of Bihar for over 13 years and there should be a change now even if it is a change for the sake of change. Nitish Kumar has done very well as Chief Minister but should now move to Centre and leave Bihar to BJP and second-rung JDU leadership,” said Paswan who currently MLC in Bihar Legislative Council.
JD(U) looks desperate to place Nitish Kumar once again on the Chief Ministerial seat. A few days ago, posters with slogan “Kyun Kare Vichar, Thike to hai Nitish Kumar” which literally translates into ‘Why think for a change, Nitish Kumar is OK as CM’ appeared on the streets of Patna. This shows that JDU wants to shunt any chances of Nitish Kumar’s removal from CM’s race in next assembly election.
Taking on the poster politics of JD(U), Paswan said, “We do not know where these posters are coming from. There has not been any NDA meeting and Assembly election is some time away. It looks to be the JD(U)’s sole decision to play up Nitish Kumar’s leadership again…”
Bihar CM Nitish Kumar, through years of deft political maneuvering had managed to position himself as ‘Sushasan Babu’ as a counter against the Jungle Raj practised by Lalu Prasad Yadav led RJD. His image as the ‘Sushasan Babu’ of Bihar stands severely battered after his government’s inept handling of recent tragedies- encephalitis and floods.
While he is famed to have brought ‘Sushaashan’ in the state but development still remains a far cry in the state. So far, he has ruled the state for 13 long years and Bihar continues to remain one of the poorest regions of the country.
It is the BJP which has the upper hand in Bihar and the party is in a much stronger position nationwide. Hence, the BJP-Shiv Sena affair should be a clear message for Nitish that BJP is no longer going to play the second fiddle in Bihar.