Congress government in Karnataka is set to be flattened by Modi storm

The counting of the votes is going on, but visible trends largely indicate BJP led NDA is going to be sweeping the Lok Sabha seats in almost all the states in the country. South India has never been a strong front of the BJP and yet trends indicate that BJP is getting a thumping majority in at least the state of Karnataka. According to the latest trends, BJP led NDA is getting 24 seats in the state whereas Congress-led UPA is getting 4 seats.

JD(S) and Congress have formed an alliance together in the state post the assembly elections. They had prevented the more popular BJP with a maximum number of seats (104) from forming the government. JD(S) with the least number of seats (37), riding on Congress‘ desperation, was successful in grabbing the chief minister’s post despite Congress being the major contributor to the post-poll coalition with 78 seats. In this regard, Karnataka currently has a JD(S) and Congress government at the state level with HD Kumaraswamy as the Chief Minister. However, as the trends indicate, the alliance has been completely ousted from the state in the Lok Sabha elections because of BJP. HD Deve Gowda, the original pioneer of the family is trailing behind BJP candidate G. S. Basavaraj in the constituency of Tumkur. His grandson, Nikhil Kumaraswamy is too trailing behind independent candidate Sumalatha, whom BJP is supporting. If the family itself is failing to garner the support of the voters, what can be expected from the other leaders? Mandya has been in the family since 2009, moreover, having 7 assembly segments which are in the party’s kitty and yet Nikhil has failed miserably. Nikhil was being viewed as an outsider by the people, which the party ignored because he was ‘family’.

With the dismal performance of the alliance in the Lok Sabha, their alliance at the state level is also evidently breaking apart. This alliance with no ideological basis has been facing turbulent waters situation since its inception. Several incidents indicting towards possible cracks in the alliance have surfaced. After the exit polls, predictions indicating Congress’ dismal performance had sparked off dissent from within the grand old party and with the alliance as well. Senior Karnataka Congress leader Roshan Baig had stated outrightly that Kumaraswamy wasn’t allowed to function in this government with Siddaramaiah stating that he is going to be the CM. He also said that seats weren’t given to Christians and only one seat was given to a Muslim in Karnataka which led him to believe that he has “been used”. He also proceeded to call KC Venugopal ‘a buffoon’, Siddaramaiah ‘arrogant’ and Gundu Rao ‘a flop show’. Other than Baig, at least four Congress MLAs led by Ramesh Jarkiholi had already indicated towards joining the rebel train. 

Karnataka Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy has also indicated the rising differences in the alliance. Kumaraswamy had recently cancelled his Delhi visit where he was supposed to meet other top opposition leaders of the anti- Narendra Modi camp. He had also given a call to Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao and looking at the circumstances of the phone call, it was inferred that Kumaraswamy is considering being a party to the federal front which KCR is mobilizing.

The analysts have argued that differences within the party as well as with the alliance partner JD(S) have become too much to sustain the coalition government and on top of this, the disappointing Lok Sabha results have become too much for the fragile alliance to handle. According to Republic TV reports, 17 MLAs in Karnataka want to quit. Moreover, there are strong rumours that JDS-Congress government in Karnataka is on the verge of a collapse as according to Republic TV, the CM may resign.

From the grim picture that has been painted, it can only be construed that the alliance is in tatters, accusing one another for the miserable performance. Now, with the Lok Sabha polls, it is only a matter of time till HD Kumaraswamy loses his support if he doesn’t resign first.