With less than a week left for the first phase of polling, citizens can barely contain their excitement. This is evident with the fact that numerous polls are being conducted with the voters heartily participating to gauge who the next leader will be. In this regard, a number of polls, organized by various news agencies and media organizations have been conducted. The poll findings convey the mood of the people and are indicative of general trends. Though the organizations conducting the polls are as different from one another as can be, they have one thing in common, i.e., the result. Every one of them has resulted in the NDA government coming back to power.
The latest opinion poll has been presented on Republic TV, conducted by the very famous and accurate opinion poll, Jan Ki Baat. Unsurprisingly, the poll has put NDA right on top of the list, giving it around 304 to 316 seats. Out of this majority, BJP alone is expected to get around 248 to 260 seats. UPA meanwhile has been given 126 to 117 seats out of which Congress is getting a meager 73 to 70 seats. The poll also mentions other alliances and parties which are expected to get 113 to 110 seats in the Lok Sabha elections.
Superior methodology has been used in the survey, which is, “Geo-strategically selected units through purpose sampling” and the interview technique used was “Structured, face to face interviews.” The opinion poll has been conducted between Feb 1st to April 2nd, 2019, with a sample size of 5 lakhs.
The Jan ki Baat polls have proven their accuracy in the past. In the Karnataka Assembly elections last year, the same opinion polls had predicated 95-114 seats for BJP and a mere 73-82 seats for Congress. This is precisely what happened with BJP securing 104 seats and Congress getting a total of 80 seats. Moreover, the accurate prediction was made during a time when Congress was holding a whopping 122 seats and BJP had a mere 40 seats.
The poll has come out with a clear NDA majority and is not so different from other polls conducted by the organizations. There have been several polls such as Times Now-VMR, IndiaTV-CNX, News Nation, India Today -Karvy, India TV – CNX, ABP News, and all these polls have come out declaring NDA in majority. Moreover, apart from the opinion polls, in the betting industry too, the odds are highly in favour of the NDA government.
The opinion polls are a result of excruciating market research and data analysis. The survey results indicating an NDA majority are astronomical, while the public is reluctant to consider Congress. Regardless of the non binding aspect of the exercise, if anything, the data at least indicates the mood of the nation. It can be conclusively established that the citizens believe that PM Modi’s return is almost certain.