With just a few weeks left for the upcoming Lok Sabha polls, all eyes are set on states which can play an instrumental role in the formation of the government. Uttar Pradesh for its massive contribution of MP’s, 80 out of the total 543 to the Lok Sabha, has been crucial in the formation of government. However, irrespective of its massive contribution, Uttar Pradesh has not always proven to be the a king-making state.
Past data shows that parties winning a considerable number of seats in Uttar Pradesh have not always been able to form the government. Since 1989, which can be seen as the beginning of coalition fronts taking the ruling position, 50 percent of the time the party with a considerable number of seats in Uttar Pradesh failed to form the government or getting any cabinet positions as supporting members.
In 1991, 1996, 2004 and 2009 parties with most seats in Uttar Pradesh had failed to form the government. The fact that out of the eight general elections since 1989, parties which got maximum seats in Uttar Pradesh failed to form the government is an counter-intuitive statistic. Seen from a different perspective, parties which did not get win a big number of seats in Uttar Pradesh went on to form the government.
Incoherency in facts and realities has been plaguing political discourse with undue importance given to aspects which statistically have not been up to the perception that they create. The importance of Undivided Andhra Pradesh, which has been underplayed for long, is sure to impact government formation, like it has for most of the past general elections.
The 1999, 2004, 2009 and 2014 general elections give out a clearer picture of how present day Andhra Pradesh and Telangana have been critical in formation of the Government. Over the years the largest party emerging in the states has either formed the government or has been part of the Government.
NCBN in 2014 had reiterated the point; TDP joined the NDA to form the government. TDP was also given cabinet posts as part of the Government. 2019 presents interesting situations in these states, with KCR sweeping Telangana in the assembly elections last year is looking good going ahead in for the 2019 general elections. However things do not look good for NCBN, who has been struggling to save ground in Andhra Pradesh. Andhra Pradesh also goes to assembly elections for 175 seats in the state assembly, with the general elections for 25 parliamentary constituencies in the state. Naidu who allied with the Congress for the 2018 assembly elections in Telangana also faced a crushing defeat. Jagan Reddy led YSRCP is also poised to make electoral gains in Andhra Pradesh
Joining hands with the congress has been disastrous for the TDP, continually losing support of the people; many claim that ‘Mahakutami’ the alliance between TDP and Congress had compromised with the basic principles of the TDP.
With two huge anti-Congress fronts forming in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, chances for Congress to have considerable leverage in the government formation is set to decline further. This is proving to be a huge opportunity for the BJP. The 2019 general elections will be the first after bifurcation of the state, which further increases the number of variables that can have an impact on the outcome. However the outcome for the Congress is surely not comfortable. In another jolt to the Congress former Congress leader P Sudhakar Reddy from Telangana on Sunday joined the BJP in the presence of party president Amit Shah.
“Due to the failure of local leadership in Telangana, I was badly defeated in the last elections. The parliamentary elections are going on under their leadership again,” said Mr. Reddy. TRS and YSRCP are anticipated to side with the NDA rather than the UPA post elections which can be critical in the formation of the Government and seal the fate of 1.3 billion Indians.