Betting is illegal in the country but the betting market is thriving nonetheless and its mood is indicative of general trends. Politics and sports are the two most popular causes of betting markets which have a huge underground industry in India. Though discouraged, the betted odds are often the most prescient indicator of popularity in the particular field. In the countdown for the Lok Sabha elections, the same is being done for the two main contenders of the Prime Ministerial post- Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi.
According to a report by Dailyhunt, Aajtak’s team went to Falodi in Rajasthan, a region infamous for its notorious betting activities, with an extensive intelligence network. Speaking to the team, a bookie stated, “Their intelligence network is widespread all over the country. The network collects data which the bookies analyse and on the basis of the analysis, the odd rates are decided. The same is being done for the upcoming general elections.”
According to the analysis, PM Modi will once again repeat his term with the NDA government getting the required majority votes. BJP was expected to get 195-198 seats but after the success of the Balakot air strikes, the current anticipation has shot up to 260 seats. While, NDA is expected to get 300-302 seats. In Rajathan, BJP is envisaged to get 20-22 Lok Sabha seats out of a total of 25 whereas in UP, they are likely to get 55 seats.
The odds are highly in favour of the NDA government with the going rates are pegged at 1 rupee. It means that on betting 1 rupee, a better will get a dividend of 1 rupee. This, when compared with the going rates of the mahagathbandhan alliance display the picture wherein on betting 1 rupee, the better will get 5 rupees, should the unlikely event of a mahagathbandhan government happens.
Looking at the Prime Ministerial post, while the odds on PM Modi’s return are pegged at 15-20 paise, on Rahul Gandhi its 25 rupees. This indicates that if Modi wins, the 1 rupee bet will get a dividend of 20 paise whereas if Rahul Gandhi is elected as the Prime Minister, 1 rupee will yield 25 rupees as dividend. In short, the odds are overwhelmingly in PM Modi’s favor.
The odds are a result of excruciating market research and data analysis. The odds on PM Modi are astronomical, hence having a very low amount of yield. While for Rahul Gandhi, the odds are are quite unlikely, as indicated by the high yield. Regardless of the legality aspect of the exercise, if anything, the data at least indicates the mood of the nation. It can be conclusively established that the citizens believe that PM Modi’s return is almost certain.