In the initial days of the month of February, West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee had made headlines amid a bitter political confrontation with the Union government. The confrontation took place over the issue of CBI questioning of Kolkata Police Commissioner. This was not for the first time that we witnessed vocal Mamata Banerjee training guns at the centre and PM Modi. The liberal brigade and certain regional satraps propagated her as someone who could lead the grand coalition (Mahagathbandhan) and former PM HD Deve Gowda went on to say that the West Bengal chief minister has all the capabilities of leading the country. He clearly hinted at Mamata Banerjee being a probable PM candidate from the grand coalition.
One cannot rule out that the West Bengal CM might have been harboring the ambition of leading the grand coalition in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls. She was clearly eyeing something big. This also explains why she was so vocal about national issues. However, she has been relatively silent about the issues concerning national politics for around the past two weeks. Her silence might seem awkward but it is based entirely on political pragmatism and expediency.
Mamata’s sudden silence as far as national issues are concerned and a greater focus on West Bengal clearly show that she is now more concerned about West Bengal. Till now, she was pretty vocal about national issues and suddenly she seems more like a subdued leader. This suggests that probably for the first time since she emerged on the political landscape, she fears a possible defeat in the state of West Bengal. It is possible that the West Bengal CM inferred that there are realistic chances of her losing out in the state of West Bengal in the upcoming Parliamentary elections. In such circumstances, it is only reasonable that she has started focusing on state politics. This explains why she has not been speaking much about national issues in the recent past.
The sudden change in Mamata Banerjee’s subdued rhetoric comes in the backdrop of breakdown of Congress-Left alliance in the state of West Bengal. The much-hyped grand coalition has fallen apart in the state of West Bengal for all practical purposes. As stated earlier, Mamata was seen as someone who could lead the grand coalition. However, she has nothing to lead given that grand coalition has not materialised. Retaining popularity in West Bengal is now going to be an uphill task for Mamata Banerjee given that the upcoming elections will witness a four-cornered contest in the state.
Another issue that Mamata Banerjee is facing is the BJP’s rise in the state of West Bengal. TMC would hate to admit this, but BJP has consolidated its presence in a big way in the state and is set to make massive inroads in the state. Mamata Banerjee knows that things can go awry in the state of West Bengal and the TMC might suffer irreparable damage if the BJP is able to inflict humiliating damage on the Mamata led party. As such, her fears are not without substance. There will be no consolidation of anti-BJP votes given that the state will witness a four-cornered contest and the fact that BJP has emerged as a strong alternative in West Bengal gives the BJP a clear advantage. In the run-up to the Lok Sabha polls, Mamata Banerjee has understood that there is a need for course correction which explains her shift from speaking on national issues to state-centered approach.