In the wake of the ongoing Indo-Pak conflict, tfipost.com has learned that India will not allow Pakistan to use Captain Abhinandan Varthaman as leverage against India. The pilot was yesterday captured by Pakistan after his fighter jet landed in Pakistan-controlled territory. He was chasing Pakistan’s F16s which had flown into India, and despite having a much inferior fighter jet at his command, he managed to shoot one down. Unfortunately, he landed in Pakistan-controlled territory and was picked up by the Pakistani military.
Pakistan seeks to deescalate tensions with India, after realising that they have rubbed India the wrong way and that India seeks revenge. Pakistan’s terrorists had killed over 40 CRPF Jawans in Pulwama, putting in motion a cycle of hostilities. Unable to lose face after India flew into its territory and bombed it killing 300 terrorists, it attempted to violate Indian airspace and target Indian military establishments. Although this was an extremely short-sighted decision considering India has vowed to avenge her martyrs, despite losing an f16 fighter jet and its pilot, it managed to capture Captain Abhinandan Varthaman.
Now in its attempts to deescalate the tensions, Pakistan has sent feelers to India. Essentially, it has conveyed that it is ready to release the captured Indian pilot if India agrees to come to the table and resolve the issue through dialogue. Simultaneously, it has activated various ISI assets in India to demand for peace, and to blackmail the Indian people emotionally in the name of Captain Abhinandan Varthaman. Pakistan believes that since they hold him captive, and since their ISI assets are at work, they hold a leverage over India.
But India has other plans. Firstly, India knows very well that this so-called leverage is nonsensical. Pakistan is duty-bound to return the captured pilot according to the Geneva Convention, and with international pressure mounting on them, India knows that irrespective of whether India comes to the table and hold dialogues with them or not, India’s pilot will be returned safely quite soon.
Be that as it may, India has taken the call not to play into the hands of the Pakistanis and their ISI assets in India. In their calculations, they have refused to consider the captured pilot as leverage that Pakistan holds over India’s head. Essentially what this means is that India will continue to act against Pakistan in the way that it deems fit, and the question of de-escalation and dialogues will not arise. India will continue to hit them where it hurts, irrespective of the fact that an Indian pilot is in their custody.
This is an extremely shrewd decision. Pakistan’s ISI assets have been unable to whip up the sentiment that they wanted to across the country, and Indians continue to stand solidly behind the government. By calling Pakistan’s bluff and refusing to acknowledge the pilot as leverage, India has given itself a free pass to continue taking whatever action it deems fit against Pakistan.
This is likely to stump the Pakistanis. Leverage only works if your enemy also acknowledges that what you consider to be leverage is really leverage. For Pakistan, this has stopped working already. They are under pressure to follow the Geneva Convention and return the captured pilot soon. But irrespective of whether they return him, their efforts at de-escalation and at saving their skin have flopped massively. India still retains the right to hit Pakistan however it wants. The advantage remains with India.