With Samajwadi Party (SP) Chief Akhilesh Yadav and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) president Mayawati’s official announcement to bury the hatchet and join hands to defeat the common enemy, the politics of Uttar Pradesh ahead of Lok Sabha elections is set to witness twists and turns. Both the parties would contest on 38 seats in the 80-member Assembly. In the newly formed SP-BSP alliance, the Congress and Shivpal Yadav’s newly formed party have got no space whatsoever. However, Shivpal Singh Yadav had said that his Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party (Lohia) is ready to join hands with the Congress in Uttar Pradesh for the coming Lok Sabha elections.
In an interview to ANI, PSPL chief Yadav termed the SP and the BSP alliance as ‘Thugbandhan’ (alliance among thugs). He said, “This alliance is a ‘Thugbandhan’ and is for money. It is possible that money must have been taken before forging the alliance.”
Shivpal also said that no talks have so far been initiated with the Congress in connection with the alliance. He said, “There have been no talks with the Congress party as yet. The Congress is also a secular party and if it approaches us to defeat the BJP, we will lend our support.”
Earlier, the Congress had declared that it will contest on all Lok Sabha seats of the state, but it also hinted that the party was open for support from “like-minded” parties. The senior Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad said, “Everyone knows that parliament fight is between the Congress and the BJP. We’ll certainly take the help of like-minded-parties and respect such parties who are fighting the BJP.”
If the alliance between PSP (L) and the Congress becomes a reality then the state would witness a triangular contest between SP-BSP, PSP (L) – Congress, and the BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. It would certainly be a gain for the BJP if the contest becomes triangular.
There are plenty of chances that in order to gain some relevance in a state where it is politically irrelevant, the Congress might accept Shivpal Yadav’s offer. Akhilesh Yadav’s uncle- Shivpal Yadav- is an influential figure in the state. It is important to note that Akhilesh has been the face of the party for the last 7 years, but it is Shivpal Yadav who has the cadres and the organizational strength. Shivpal is a crowd puller and enjoys a good reputation among the old loyalists of the Samajwadi party. With his exit, the SP seems to have become weaker. Shivpal joining hands with Congress would act as an elixir for the politically irrelevant party. It will lead to the creation of two solid blocks and then there will be two claimants of Yadav and Muslim votes.
Also, the SP-BSP coalition may look viable at the leadership level but at the cadre level, it just appears as a formula for disaster. They lack a Nitish Kumar like figure to ensure the vote transfer as it happened in the case of Bihar. Also, it’s an open secret that all is not well between Dalits and Yadavs in Uttar Pradesh. There exists a traditional rivalry between both the communities and hence a seamless vote transfer in 2019 is just a remote possibility while the chances of huge cross voting are very high.
When it comes to forging an alliance, Akhilesh Yadav’s record is not at all promising. His bromance with Rahul Gandhi in the UP state assembly elections was proved to be completely disastrous for the party. Interestingly, in 2017 state assembly elections also, there was a triangular contest and the BJP had emerged victorious. A three-way fight has conventionally helped the BJP. BJP has won almost every election where there were 3 or more fronts involved. For instance, BJP clean swept Haryana where it was up against the Congress and INLD, emerged as the single largest party in Maharashtra where it was up against NCP and Congress, won Uttar Pradesh comprehensively where it contested against SP+Cong and BSP and even got itself in to a situation of forming government in Jammu and Kashmir where it was pitted against the NCP-Congress alliance and the PDP. It is expected that a three way contest would help the BJP again in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections also.