According to a Times Now survey, the Congress Party will gain 19 seats and the BJP will lose around the same number of seats in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. There are total of 65 Lok Sabha seats in these three states out of which the BJP is likely to win 43 seats and the Congress 22 seats. In 2013, the BJP had won 62 seats and the Congress 3 seats.
As per @TimesNow survey, Cong will gain and BJP will lose 19 LS seats in Raj, MP and Chhatisgarh.
If this is correct, will Cong cross the 50 mark? There's aren't too many other states where it can increase its tally of 2014.
— Vinod Sharma (@vinod_sharma) October 8, 2018
If the survey is correct then the Congress party is likely to cross the mark of 50 seats but it seems except Punjab, they are nowhere in a strong position, their allies are leaving them, hope of any grand alliance against the BJP looks extremely bleak and the Congress is desperately in search of issues to attack the government. There desperation is clearly evident in the way in which the entire party is desperately trying to project Rafale deal as some sort of mega scam. The Congress is combining heaven and hell to woo the electorate. However, so far it has only suffered abject failure on both the fronts. So, the moot question is if the Congress party is really going to cross the mark of 50 seats then from where will these seats come from.
In 2014 general elections, in all the states the Congress party failed to cross the double digits on its own. In Arunachal Pradesh, Haryana, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Lakshadweep, Puducherry it won 1 seat. The Congress in Telangana, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Manipur, and Uttar Pradesh won 2 seats. In Punjab and Assam, it won 3 seats. In West Bengal, the Congress party won 4 seats. In Karnataka, the Grand Old Party won 9 seats. In Kerala, UDF coalition led by the Congress party won 12 seats of which 8 were won by the Congress party.
Even if for the sake of the argument we accept the exaggerated projection of the Congress party winning 22 Lok Sabha seats in the upcoming general elections in these three states then also the picture of the Congress party in the days to come does not looks promising. Except these three poll bound states Punjab is the only state where the Congress party is strong and the state has only 13 seats. If we assume that the party will bag all the 13 seats then also its grand total will be 35 seats. In Uttar Pradesh, the Congress in best case scenario is likely to win only two seats. That will take its tally to 37.
In the crucial states of south all is not well between the Congress party and its alliance partners. For example in Karnataka, since the unholy alliance of the Congress and JD (S) has come to existence, a constant tug of war has ensued between the two over one issue or another. It’s quite funny to see that the parties that vowed to fight the BJP together are fighting with each other since the beginning of their alliance.
According to media reports, Congress is planning to go solo in Karnataka this time for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections leaving its coalition partner Janata Dal (Secular). If reports coming in from the state are to be believed, Congress is planning to field candidates from all 28 Lok Sabha seats in the state for the upcoming 2019 Lok Sabha elections. A senior Congress party leader from the state told The Sunday Standard, “At present, we are preparing to fight all the 28 Lok Sabha seats, We have started meetings of our district and block level leaders. The senior leaders, including those from the AICC, are monitoring. Parliamentary candidates are being sounded. We are getting ready parliament constituency-wise…We are all working together.” The Congress leader also expressed belief that the JDS too would have begun preparations of its own for the Lok Sabha polls in the state. The national party seems to be running high on the victory it has achieved in the recently conducted local body polls in the state. Congress party bagged the highest number of seats in the local body polls in which there was no coalition between the JD (S) and the Congress. While BJP came second in the local body polls, JDS had to contend itself with the third spot. The state leadership of the Congress was not happy with the post-poll alliance with the JD (S). As the things are going it would be no exaggeration to say we might witness a Bihar like episode very soon in Karanataka as well. If it happens then it would only benefit the BJP.
In Kerala, this time it’s going to be a tight contest between LDF coalition vs UDF coalition vs the BJP. This time it is highly expected that the BJP will milk some share of seats. The BJP will surely open its account in the upcoming general elections in Kerala. In 2014 general elections, the BJP got 10.3% vote share but it failed to win a single seat. In 2016 Kerala state assembly elections, the BJP got 15.10% vote share and won 1 seat. The BJP has done a lot of ground work in these years and the vote share in the upcoming general elections would only register increase and would also translate into seats as well. Kerala is very important for the BJP. The BJP has paid a lot of attention to Kerala. Kerala has representation in PM Modi cabinet. Alphons Joseph Kannanthanam from Kottayam is currently serving as the Union Minister of State for Electronics and Information Technology, Culture, and Tourism, in office since 3 September 2017. In addition, the Congress seems to be on the losing end given the unprecedented surge of Hindu Unity in the wake of Sabarimala verdict.
The Congress party should not hope of getting anything substantial from northeast. Almost entire northeast is saffronized. The BJP’s one after another sweep in the northeast states has brought the northeast to the forefront of the country’s policymaking. Now, the northeast receives ample media attention. It has become politically and strategically more important. PM Modi’s “Vikas Model” has benefited the North East greatly, which explains why BJP is suddenly becoming popular in the North East. Northeast has 25 Lok Sabha seats and the BJP is likely to win more than 20 of them.
In West Bengal there is rebellion going on in the Congress party which further exacerbate its chances of winning any seat in the state in 2019. In the West Bengal Panchayati elections, the Congress party came on fourth position and the BJP emerged as the second largest party. The TMC secured first position by adopting undemocratic means. In these 4.5 years the BJP has made deep inroads in West Bengal and the clout of the Congress has only decreased. The Congress contested West Bengal state assembly elections in coalition with the Communists but their coalition failed to make any impact. Only party which is position to challenge TMC’s might is the BJP. It’s very unlikely that the Congress will win four seats; its tally will only reduce in 2019.
In states like Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Tamil Nadu regional parties are very strong. In states such as Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, there is a contest between the regional party vs regional party. In Telangana TRS appears to be on the stronger turf.
In Maharashtra, everything is dependent on whether Shiv Sena and the BJP would contest in coalition or they would go solo in 2019 elections. If they contest together then NDA might emerge victorious on around 40 out of 48 seats.
As compare to 2014 elections, the Congress party’s future is bleaker in 2019. The Congress party’s alliance partners in other states are leaving its hands or are not comfortable in working under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi. Everyone wants to jump off from a sinking ship. No one is willing to stitch up alliance with the Congress party. It will cross the tally of 50 seats only by some moracle otherwise it is likely to remain below 50 in 2019.