It seems that Uttar Pradesh is going out of hands for the grand coalition. The recent rift within the Akhilesh Yadav led SP seems to be final nail in the coffin as far as the Mahagathbandhan’s chances in the politically crucial state is concerned. The party strongman broke away from the Akhilesh Yadav SP last month and announced the formation of a break-away group, Samajwadi Secular Morcha. He also invited “all those who are not being respected in the SP” to join his newly formed outfit. He is now set to launch his own party. This goes on to show that the rift has widened beyond the reach of any conciliation efforts and the SP is now a completely divided force.
Initially, it seemed that this rift had been caused by a family dispute leading to further factionalism but now it seems that there were certain larger forces at play which created this rift. First indications came when the Yogi government allotted the 6 Lal Bahadur Shastri Marg bungalow to the SP rebel. This was the same bungalow that had been vacated by BSP supremo Mayawati 4 months ago. It had been allotted to her as the chief minister of the state and was vacated on the orders of the Supreme Court. Now, the Yogi government is likely to extend Z-plus security to the founder of Samajwadi Secular Morcha, Shivpal Yadav. Sources have stated that an alleged security threat could be the reason why the Yogi government is likely to give his recommendation for a Z plus security. A recent Intelligence Bureau report stated certain security issues of the SP rebel. The Yogi government seems to be clearly appeasing Shivpal Yadav and is trying to widen the rift within the family and by extension the SP, beyond any chances of repair.
The BJP has clearly seen through the fault lines within the Yadav family and is now exploiting them. In fact, deputy chief minister Keshav Prasad Maurya has even said that Shivpal Yadav should merge his party with the BJP. This clearly shows that BJP is extending support to the faction that has parted ways with the SP and is now trying to ensure that the SP remains a highly divided organisation. Shivpal Yadav is a heavyweight politician who enjoyed quite a bit of cadre support. He can naturally command the loyalty of a number of ground party workers. Now, with chief minister Yogi Adityanath showering gifts upon him and giving him tacit support, one can easily expect a number of SP workers to switch sides. Looking at the bleak future of the Akhilesh Yadav led SP and the tacit support that Shivpal’s party will enjoy, they will be inclined to change sides and desert the SP.
This clears the way for BJP in the state as far as the 2019 Lok Sabha polls are concerned. The political circumstances are completely in favour of the BJP. A divided and depleted SP cadre and an almost non-existent BSP are no match for the BJP. The Congress is not worthy of even being considered. Moreover, this depleted organisations will also most probably not entering a pre poll alliance further dividing among themselves their vote banks. Both Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav have given indications that they are not ready to form any kind of alliance with the Rahul Gandhi led Congress. The BJP is set to sail through Uttar Pradesh in 2019 just like it did in 2014, or perhaps even better its 2014 tally.