Is Shiv Sena heading towards a split?

Shiv Sena is a long-time member of India’s ruling National Democratic. But, during the last Maharashtra state assembly elections both the parties went their separate ways over seat distribution and contested elections alone. The Bharatiya Janata Party emerged as the single largest party in the elections, but in order to get the throne of Maharashtra both the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Shiv Sena coalesced again. Since then the Shiv Sena has been a ‘bitter frenemy’ of the BJP. It has failed to fulfil the role of a good coalition partner and acted more as an irritating opponent of the BJP.

Uddhav failed to realize the change of waves during the last Maharashtra assembly elections and still wants to act like a bigger partner in the coalition with the BJP. He wants to dominate the Maharashtra politics just like Balasaheb Thackeray used to do. But one thing he needs to understand is that he does not have the charisma like Bala Saheb. Bala Saheb was a man of principles while Uddhav is behaving like all other stubborn dynast politicians. That’s why his dreams to dominate Maharashtra politics were shattered. Uddhav is frustrated because Modi-Shah duo’s smart politics first reduced him to play second fiddle in the alliance, and now Fadnavis’ political acumen is pushing him to oblivion. His immature behavior and statements only show that he is still in the kindergarten of politics.

Uddhav Thackeray has continuously ranted against the Modi government and the BJP. Uddhav has been a complete failure as a politician. After the state assembly elections, the BJP focused on increasing its clout in Maharashtra and Shiv Sena in their blind hatred for the BJP ended up losing their footprints in Maharashtra politics. Under the questionable leadership of Uddhav Thackeray, Shivsena is increasingly becoming irrelevant in Maharashtra.

The words of Thomas Paine perfectly define the likes of Uddhav Thackeray. Thomas Paine had said, “One of the strongest natural proofs of the folly of hereditary right in kings, is, that nature disapproves it, otherwise she would not so frequently turn it into ridicule by giving mankind an ass for a lion.”

The next General Elections are around the corner and there are rumors in the political circles that Shiv Sena might go alone in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. If it happens, the Shiv Sena is unlikely to win anything on its own. It will be beaten everywhere either by the BJP or by NCP-Congress. All this will do help the Shiv Sena in satisfying its ego and maintaining an anti-BJP position, but politically and practically this would be a suicidal move. Sena would end up losing all political power and relevance. On the other hand, the BJP might still sail through though its winning margins won’t be as monumental. In fact, according media reports, the BJP president Amit Shah has asked its Maharashtra leaders to prepare a blueprint to fight for all the 48 seats in the state alone. The BJP have no problem in going alone. After the Maharashtra state assembly elections, the BJP contested many elections without Shiv Sena and it has delivered splendid performance in all those elections. In Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), the BJP faced Shiv sena and the NCP-Congress coalition and it surprised everyone with its splendid performance. The BJP ended the monopoly of Shiv sena in BMC. It had won whopping 82 seats out of 227 and Shiv sena managed to win 84 seats and thus forcing the Shiv sena to make BJP a partner in every major decision. The BJP has continued delivering outstanding performances in Zila Parishad elections and Gram Panchayat polls. With its performance, it has outsmarted Shiv sena, NCP and Congress.

Recently, the BJP swept the two Municipal elections held on July 31 in Maharashtra. In a historic victory, the BJP overwhelmed the Congress-NCP alliance in the Sangli-Miraj-Kupwad Municipal Corporation (SMKMC) elections which is traditionally seen as a Congress stronghold winning 41 of the 78-member House. Congress has been in power in this corporation for the past 20 years but this time around it was unable to stop the BJP despite forming an alliance with the Sharad Pawar led NCP. BJP also registered an easy victory in Jalgaon Municipal Corporation (JMC) winning 57 out of 75 seats. The BJP also went all alone in the Sangli elections and still registered a historic victory over the Congress-NCP combine. The BJP under Fadnavis managed to do all this despite the Maratha agitation and now the opposition including Shiv Sena have also realized there is no way to stop Fadnavis.

Earlier, in Nagpur, the BJP managed to win majority of the seats and also the post of civic chief in the newly formed Wanadongri and Parseoni municipal councils. The party won 19 out of 21 seats in Wanadongri. The NCP had to settle with one seat while an independent won one seat. In Parseoni, the BJP emerged victorious on 11 out of 17 seats. Shiv sena bagged 4 seats including that of the civic chief, while the Congress party managed to grab only two seats. The results show that the BJP is super strong in Maharashtra and way ahead of its rival when it comes to groundwork and popularity.

Now, there seems to be a rift in Shiv Sena because of its unabated debacle in the state and its supremo’s mindless talks and speeches. BJP ally Ram Vilas Paswan’s tweet indicates something like this. He tweeted that an MP of Shiv Sena told him that he supports the stand of Modi government on SC/ST act and that Uddhav may not be having knowledge on this act. 

Earlier, Uddhav Thackeray had described Modi government’s decision to strengthen SC/ST act as a step towards the division of society.

It seems that everything is not well within the Shiv Sena. Maybe, now its leaders are realizing that Shiv Sena supremo’s ego is causing damage to their electoral gains.  It would be no exaggeration to say that if Uddhav continues with his ego then he would only end up inviting a revolt against him or a breakaway in the months to come.