BJP is not out of the game in Karnataka yet, as Amit Shah is trying to keep H. D. Kumaraswamy away from the seat of Chief Minister. Karnataka BJP has asked that a Lingayat should be made Deputy Chief Minister in Karnataka because out of 222 MLAs, 58 belong to this community. The party is trying to point that Congress doesn’t respect the Linagayats despite the fact that they are the most politically dominant community in the state since independence. Lingayats comprise 9.8 percent of state’s population according to 2015 census conducted by Siddaramaiah government.
BJP performed excellently in Lingayat dominated Bombay Karnataka region in the Karnataka Assembly elections. Lingayats voted en mass for BJP as they were sidelined during the previous Congress regime. The guiding philosophy of Chief Minister Siddaramaiah was to work for AHINDA coalition — comprising communities of minorities, backward classes and Scheduled Caste and Tribes, as was evident in every budget the government presented in the assembly. The other major party in the coalition, JD(S) is primarily a Vokkaliga community party which constitutes 8.17 percent of the state population. Vokkaligas are second most powerful community in the state after Lingayats, and Kumaraswamy belongs to the Vokkaliga community.
The alliance of JD(S) and Congress is not sailing through well as there are conflicts between leaders of these parties. In the Congress party itself D K Sivakumar, who is a prominent leader from the Vokkaliga community does not look eye to eye with ex-Chief Minister Siddaramaiah. While Sidhharamaiah was CM, he tried to promote Lingayat leaders at number two position in his government but D K Sivakumar resisted this move successfully. He played a crucial role in the formation of this government as the MLAs were captivated in resorts after the results of the polls had been declared. He is known as the savior and muscle man of the Congress party, as during Rajya Sabha elections in Gujarat, the Congress MLAs were put under his charge in his resorts so that they could not change sides. He also enjoys good relations with the Gandhi family and therefore may get more prominence in this government, which will not go down well with Siddaramaiah who sees himself as the most powerful Congress leader in the state.
The problems do not stop here for the coalition, as JD(S) patron H. D. Deve Gowda and Siddharamaiah have very bad personal relations. They have not been on talking terms with each other since 2005, when Mr. Sidhharamaiah left JD(S) to join the Congress. Today, the desperation to keep the BJP out of power may have brought both leaders on same floor, but they are not expected to sail along for a long time. The other problem is with power distribution, as the JD(S) does not want to give DK Sivakumar a prominent position in government because he comes from the Vokkaliga community which is the main support base of the party itself. H. D. Kumaraswamy sees DK Sivakumar as a rival who could wipe out his own support base. The coalition is currently planning on giving the Deputy Chief Minister’s post to Dalit Congress leader G Parameshwara. Dalits constitute almost 19.5 percent population of the state, but other communities are not happy with this decision.
Congress is desperate to carry out this loveless relationship because it believes that Karnataka is the best place to prove that Amit Shah and his so-called Chanakya politics can’t succeed in South India. It also wants to save Congress President Rahul Gandhi from the embarrassment of losing the very first state after becoming the party president. BJP national president Amit Shah said, “The public mandate is not with the Congress. The BJP is the party with the largest number of seats. All attempts these anti-public parties have indulged in to stop BJP from forming the government will eventually backfire because it does not have public support we are the largest party. More than half of Congress ministers and the JD(S) actually could not demean itself for celebrating victory of 37 seats.”
Now that master strategist Amit Shah has successfully planted the idea among the Lingayats and Tribals that they are being ignored by the alliance in terms of power distribution, it will be interesting to see whether some MLAs will cross the floor to come to BJP. The plan of BJP is expected to be fruitful sooner or later because the power distribution between the Congress and JD(S) is creating feuds among their own MLAs. There is still a good chance that Kumaraswamy is kept from sitting on the Chief Minister seat if the BJP is successful in their attempt to put a Lingayat in the post for the Deputy CM.