Tomorrow is the judgment day in Karnataka Assembly. Days of political stalemate is expected to end tomorrow with the floor test. A three judge bench of Supreme Court ordered that a floor test be held tomorrow at 4 PM to decide whether the BJP has the required number of MLAs to continue in power. Congress and JD(S) welcomed the order of the Supreme Court. Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad said, “We congratulate the judiciary for saving the democracy and protecting the Constitution of India.”
The three judge bench comprised of Justice A K Sikri, S A Bobde and Ashok Bhushan also rejected the demand of secret ballot. Along with that, the SC also observed that BS Yeddyurappa cannot take any major policy decisions. It also disallowed Yeddyurappa from nominating any Anglo-Indian MLA till he proves majority in the Karnataka Assembly. BJP has stated that tomorrow it will prove its majority. However, truth is that it doesn’t have the required numbers. BJP, along with its 104 MLAs and one independent MLA, is still seven short of the magical number. So now the question is how would they prove their majority?
Following SC's order for floor test tomorrow at 4 PM, we want to make one thing very clear.
We are absolutely sure of our numbers and will decisively prove our majority on the floor of the house. If people's mandate has to be vindicated again, so be it. Bring it on!
— BJP Karnataka (@BJP4Karnataka) May 18, 2018
Looks like Amit Shah is already orchestrating a major coup to unsettle the Congress. According to a report by Republic TV, eight Congress-JD(S) MLAs are in New Delhi and in touch with the BJP. According to their report, there are not more than 65 Congress MLAs with the official Congress group in Hyderabad. In order to protect their MLAs from joining BJP, both Congress and JD(S) have kept their MLAs in resorts of Karnataka and Hyderabad. Mobile phones of MLAs have been also taken away and they are in 24×7 CCTV surveillance.
https://twitter.com/Shehzad_Ind/status/997373270788894725
Earlier as well, there have been media reports about MLAs leaving Eagleton resort citing health reasons. Another Congress MLA, Anand Singh, is also in New Delhi and has met with BJP leaders. It is said that they will go back to Bengaluru on Saturday aboard a special flight. Perhaps tomorrow is the last day of this ‘resort politics.’ It would be interesting to see whether this time also Amit Shah would be able to deliver for the BJP or not. JD(S) and Congress might end up losing the little bit of what they had retained after the elections due to the stance of their defector MLAs. Ahead of the floor test, there are several scenarios that can happen during the test on the House floor.
In the first case scenario, if BJP, along with Congress rebels, also manages to get two independent candidates then BJP would be able to prove the majority on the House floor.
The second possibility is that if the BJP manages to get six rebel Congress MLAs along with its 104 MLAs even then it will be short of majority mark of 112.
If none of these happen and the floor test results in tie then the Speaker of the Vidhana Soudha will cast the vote to decide who can form the government in Karnataka. In the worst case scenario for BJP, if none of the rebel MLAs of the Congress and JD(S) extend support to the BJP then the post-poll alliance of JD(S) and the Congress would come to power, unseating the Yeddyurappa government, a possibility which will be undesirable to the BJP as well as against the mandate of the people which clearly went in the favor of the BJP.