Jan Ki Baat survey predicts huge BJP gain in Karnataka assembly elections.

The latest poll survey, conducted by Jan Ki Baat with the sample size of a 1.2 lakh respondents, says BJP is crossing 100 seats in Karnataka, a jump of 60 seats compared to the previous assembly elections. This means, the BJP would end up as the single largest party with a clear edge over the Congress. The survey says that the BJP could get anything in between 102-108 seats. PM Modi, Amit Shah and former Karnataka CM Yeddyurappa are campaigning relentlessly for BJP in the state. Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is also campaigning extensively for the BJP. From the very first rally, he has launched blistering attacks on the incumbent Karnataka CM. 

In 2013, BJP had bagged only 40 seats as compared to 2008 when it had won 110 seats. The survey has given both the Congress and the JD(S) double digits in terms of seat counts. The survey also states that the incumbent Karnataka Congress government could end up with 72-74 seats. In 2013, the incumbent Congress government came to power with a jump from 80 to 122 seats. The Congress Chairperson, Rahul Gandhi and Karnataka CM Siddaramaiah are leading the election campaign for the party in the upcoming Karnataka assembly elections.

According to the survey, the BJP could get 40% of the vote share while the Congress could end up with 38% of the vote share this time. The JD(S), the party which had bagged 40 seats in the previous elections, this time could end up with a vote share of 20% and between 42-44 seats. The survey also predicts ‘others’ could get 2 to 4 seats with a vote share of 2 percent. In the previous elections ‘others’ were limited to two seats.

The survey indicates a repeat of 2008, a hung assembly in the state as no party is getting a clear-cut majority of its own. In this case, JD(S) would emerge as a king-maker. It would be interesting to see whether Congress would be able to save its bastion like BJP did in Gujarat or it would suffer one more defeat under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi. According to the survey, the road to victory is very tough for the Congress. There is a huge distress among the people because of the pathetic rule of Siddaramaiah government in the state in the last five years. There is a considerable disenchantment among the people because of Siddaramaiah’s soft approach towards radical Popular Front of India(PFI) organization, being mute spectator to murders and riots taking place in the state, murders in dubious circumstance of IAS and police officers, deteriorating condition of infrastructure, minority appeasement, attempts to divide the Hindus, caste politics etc. Plus, the main opposition party, BJP is also not in a defensive position as they were in 2013. This is clearly evident by the fact that in a constituency like Chikkodi which is a strong Congress and JD(S) bastion, 1.5 lakh people are coming to attend PM Modi’s rally. This indicates that this time, momentum is in BJP’s favor, no matter how much opposition parties deny it.

So, Congress’ own misrule, mistakes, anti-incumbency and lackluster approach towards governance coupled with strong BJP, might swing the election outcomes against the Congress.  People also want strong development oriented government in the state. And the BJP also wants to return to Karnataka again, as it is geographically very important to BJP. Given the fact that BJP has very little presence in Southern Indian politics and Karnataka is considered as a gateway to south Indian politics. This is why it becomes more important for BJP to win Karnataka if it wants to increase its clout and reach in Southern India.