Congress’s epic defeat in Karnataka- voting pattern and analysis

At present the BJP is ruling in 21 states. The Congress is now only limited to 2 states and is facing an existential crisis. If the BJP manages to form a government in Karnataka which is almost certain, then the BJP will be ruling in 22 states, home to more than 75% population of the country.

Pollster Yashwanth Deshmukh posted the demographic trends from Karnataka. He tweeted the trends from raw unweighted file of C-Voter India. The data gives critical information on how different sections of Kannadiga society from Karnataka have voted on 12^th May. There are some confirmations on old equations and revelations on some new ones. He started off with the age old religion/caste matrix. As expected, the SC and minorities from Karnataka have gone for the Congress, OBC a split and Lingayat votes have gone for the BJP. The JD(S) has taken majority of the Vokkaliga votes.

Going by his analysis till now the Congress is leading on 28 SC/ST seats with 36.97% vote share, while the BJP is leading on 23 SC/ST seats with 32.9% vote share followed by the JD(S), which is leading on 10 SC/ST seats with 22.26% vote share. The SC/ST voters have been congress’ vote bank. Basically the Congress employs KHAM strategy, it stands for Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasis and Muslim to win elections. The BJP is leading on 40 Lingayat seats with 42.85% vote share and the Congress is leading on 19 Lingayat seats with 40% vote share. The Lingayats have been traditionally the supporter of the Bharatiya Janta Party and the Congress strategy of granting Lingayats separate religion status has not paid off, instead it resulted in Hindu Consolidation of votes. The BJP successfully convinced voters that the Congress is trying to divide the Hindus.  As expected the JD(S) took majority of the Vokkaliga votes. The JD(S) is leading on 18 seats with 32.98% vote share, where there is a strong presence of the vokkaliga population. The BJP is leading on 15 Vokkaliga seats with 29.57% votes. In the Vokkaliga belt, the Congress has got 33.53% votes but they didn’t resulted in winning the seats, the Congress is leading only on 8 seats. In the minority belt, the Congress has secured 44.25% vote share with a lead on 12 seats. The BJP in minority belt is doing well, it is leading on 9 seats with 44.56% of vote share.The JD(S) is leading on 2 seats with 8.03% vote share in the minority belt.

The Gender equation seems to be very interesting.It turned out that more number of females have opted for BJP than the Congress. So many images have surfaced on the internet showing female in large number attending BJP’s rally. In recent times the BJP has emerged as women friendly party, by giving key positions to women in Cabinet Ministry to Defence Ministry, External Affairs Ministry and Textile Ministry. The opposition parties attempt to brand the Bharatiya Janta Party by using unfortunate rape incident of Kathua rape case and Unnao rape incident, as anti-women and a party which shields rapist has failed drastically. Male voters are a virtual split. According to Yashwant Deshmukh, Elections in India are witnessing new ‘class’ groups emerging: housewives, students, middle class and so on. 

According to Yashwant Deshmuk the new generation of youths who have access to the internet and are educated are more likely to vote for Bharatiya Janta Party for its progressive policies. But people of old generation are stuck with old socialist policies of the Congress. 

The income group distribution is on expected lines. The low income and disadvantaged groups has supported the Congress in big numbers. Congress use its old tactic to woo the voters through freebies before elections. Poor and uneducated people cast their vote to congress for temporary benefits but at the altar of permanent loss. Siddaramaiah has also announced so many crowd pleasing schemes before the elections but then everything is  gone in vain.  As the Income bar goes up, so does the support for the BJP. The middle class people most likely support the BJP. The urban centres which mostly consists of the middle class, they are the strong hold of the BJP. 

The Education equation is working more or less on the traditional age old lines. Lower the education,more the support for the Congress. It has been seen less educated people vote more for Congress. Congress made crowd pleasing promises to them and unaware citizens fall prey to those promises and caste their vote to the Congress. But as the awareness level increases, higher the education level, more the support for the BJP. TheCollege going, graduates, first time voters mostly caste their votes in BJP’s favor. The votes of first time voters, college going youths and youths between 25 to 35 working in MNCs were the reason behind BJP’s landslide victory in 2014 elections. According to Yashwant’s analysis same happened in Karnataka also. The professionals, graduates, post-graduates voted for the BJP in large numbers. The middle levels of education are virtually split among the BJP and Congress. The BJP has edged over congress when the voters are educated. So the BJP should bring more and more citizens to education program. The Scientific minded, middle class educated, small businessman and technological people, they all are with the BJP.

Lastly, the occupation matrix reconfirms old equations, but also throws up few surprises. The Agriculture sector, farmers as well as farm-laborers, are supporting the Congress. This class is mostly illiterates and think for only short term benefits. The Congress retains them as their vote bank through money, a bottle of liquor, freebies etc. Probably this is why Congress kept this country poor. The self-employed and service class mostly go for the BJP.  But the surprise is the vote of the housewives & unemployed. They voted for the BJP in large numbers. This is probably  because housewives understand ground reality, for instance like prices of commodities, gas subsidy . The BJP led scheme like Ujjawala Yojana and toilet construction must have made a strong appeal to the women. College pass out who are looking for job opportunities and startups also voted for the BJP.  Since the BJP has come to power it has launched many schemes for employment creation and startup, for instance MUDRA YOJANA, Startup India and Make in India.

According to the latest updates, the BJP is leading on 104 seats with vote share of 36.2%. The Congress is leading on 76 seats with vote share 37.9% and Janta Dal (S) is leading on 39 seats with vote share of 18.4%. All the political drama is going on. The Congress has extended its support to JD(S). According to reports the BJP is going to meet the Governor of Karnataka and stake claim to form the government. It would be interesting to see whether its going to be one more state in BJP’s basket or another moral victory for the Congress.