The landslide victory of Trinamool Congress in the recently concluded Bengal panchayat elections marred with violence and intimidation came with a red flag for Mamata Banerjee. Firstly, because of the BJP’s emergence as the second largest party in the Panchayat polls despite attacks, threats and violence against BJP candidates and all sorts of malpractices employed by the TMC from booth capturing to the looting of Ballot paper boxes to win the elections. Secondly, panchayat poll results show that the BJP has gained a significant clout in the former Maoist stronghold- districts such as Purulia and Jhargram. The BJP has won more than a third of the gram panchayat seats in these two Maoist stronghold districts that too with the backing of the tribal population. This means that the BJP has spread its wings beyond the urban centres. It is all set to emerge as the principal opposition party in the state before the 2019 parliamentary elections. TMC’s dominance won’t go unchallenged. It will face a serious opposition from BJP.
The rural population is anguished with Mamata Banerjee, especially the tribals. The tribals are the biggest victim of leftist atrocities. They voted for TMC in the hope of a better future. But TMC also dumped them. And now, they are dumping the TMC and voting for BJP. In the tribal regions of Jhargram and Purulia, anger against TMC is such that the TMC, which stopped others from filing nomination and fielding candidates, could not field its candidates in some seats and in many seats it was not able to even campaign. The tribal population either fielded their own candidates or they voted for BJP candidate en-masse. Independent candidates secured victory over 1,900 seats and arose to be third highest after the Trinamool Congress and the BJP. A large number of these winner candidates are rebels from within the TMC. This is not a healthy sign for Trinamool Congress as well as for the dreams and ambitions of Mamata Banerjee.
Mamata Banerjee has been making efforts for a very long time to unite and gather regional parties against the BJP in the next year’s Parliamentary elections. But, a closer analysis of the panchayat elections reveals she might be facing difficulty in her own state. Many senior leaders like Mukul Roy have left TMC and joined BJP. In panchayat elections, a huge number of TMC dissenters contested against the party and won. This shows TMC leadership’s lack of control and that the party is plagued by factionalism. One of the key challenges for Mamata Banerjee would be to hold her party together and protect it from falling like house of cards. The road to Bengal legislative assembly and the lower house of parliament goes through the three-tier Panchayati Raj elections. Panchayat poll success provides a party fertile ground for its further expansion. The left and the Congress party have become further irrelevant in the state after the panchayat elections. So, the only principal opposition is the BJP. It is being said now, had the polls been free and fair, the BJP would have bagged more seats. In recently concluded Karnataka elections also it was evident that the BJP has performed well in rural areas. The reasons for rural populace’s attraction towards BJP in recent elections are multiple. One of the reasons for this is farmer-centric schemes launched by PM Modi government. BJP’s graph has only risen both in Karnataka and West Bengal. BJP is expecting to do well in tribal stronghold districts like Bankura, Jhargram and Purulia. The work done by RSS cadre, factionalism in TMC, growing irrelevance of the left and the Congress, dissatisfaction among people against Mamata government might work in BJP’s favour and they might end up getting more than 20% votes in the 2019 General elections.