In a massive blow to the Arvind Kejriwal-led Delhi government, on Sunday, January 21, President Ram Nath Kovind approved the recommendation of Election Commission to disqualify 20 AAP MLAs in connection with the ‘office of profit’ case. A notification issued by the law ministry quoted the president as saying that in the light of the opinion expressed by the EC, the 20 members of the Delhi legislative assembly have been disqualified.
“…Having considered the matter in the light of the opinion expressed by the Election Commission, I, Ram Nath Kovind, president of India, in exercise of the powers…do here hold that the aforesaid 20 members of the Delhi legislative assembly stand disqualified from being members of the said assembly,” the notification said.
The disqualification of 20 MLAs is a major setback of a rather unconventional political party which came to power promising corruption-free governance. The move will pave the way for bypolls in Delhi for 20 constituencies of the 70-member Assembly. The Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP, at present, has officially 66 members in the House, although some have since turned dissidents. The other four seats are held by the BJP. Even if 20 MLAs are disqualified, the ruling party will still have a comfortable majority in the Delhi Assembly.
The MLAs have moved court challenging their disqualification after President Ram Nath Kovind gave his approval to the ECI’s recommendation. In response, the Election Commission of India has submitted before the Delhi High Court that the petition of AAP MLAs against their disqualification in an office-of-profit case is liable to be dismissed as not maintainable since they challenge the ECI recommendation which is non-existent once the President has taken a decision on it.
If AAP fails to get reprieve from the courts, Delhi will have bypolls for the 20 seats. The only technical aspect is that now the Delhi Assembly Speaker will have to notify the 20 vacancies for the EC to announce the bypolls. Once the vacancies are announced by the Assembly, the AAP’s strength would go down to 46 from 66 in the 70-member House. However, it will continue to have a majority to run the state.
So, what is going to be the fate of Delhi Assembly after Bypolls ?
Well there are three possibilities:
1.) AAP’s Dominance continues
2.) BJP Resurgence
3.) Congress revival
If we analyze the current trends, recent surveys and statistical data, there are strong indications that the by-poll results will be more favorable to BJP. Let’s see, How?
1.) AAP is in for a Drubbing in Delhi Bypolls:
Improvement in public transport: The AAP had promised to significantly improve the public transport but the Kejriwal dispensation could not add even a single bus to the existing fleet of the DTC. There was no progress toward fulfilling the promise of ensuring last mile connectivity.
Wi-Fi in Public Zones: This was one promise that had lured Delhiites the most. “We will make Wi-Fi freely available all over Delhi…The Wi-Fi will be provided in public zones of Delhi. The internet and telecom companies have been approached and a high-level feasibility study has been done in consultation with them,” claimed AAP manifesto. But even after three years, the national capital still awaits free Wi-Fi services.
Installing 10-15 lakh CCTV cameras across Delhi: This was the another promise which Aam Aadmi Party failed to fulfill. AAP’s Delhi unit convenor Dilip Pandey had said, the national capital will get CCTVs at various places but, Delhiites are still waiting for this to implement.
No new jobs: The party had mentioned in its manifesto that eight lakh jobs will be created during the government’s tenure but nothing concrete has been initiated on this front.
After an emphatic win in 2015 Delhi Assembly election, currently the credibility of party has reached all time low. Inner dispute, defamation cases, accusations, dissents, unceremonious exit of leaders, controversies etc. have shattered the image of the party that brags to provide alternative to current political dispensation. Also, anti incumbency will play its part. Power tariff, free water and Mohalla clinics are the only achievments that AAP can talk about in the Bypolls campaign. It is clear that AAP has very limited achievements to boast about. Further, AAP’s debacle in MCD elections, its dismal performance in Punjab and Goa elections may very well continue in the forthcoming bypolls. Kejriwal looks set for another embarrassment.
2.) BJP’s Glorious Performance likely to continue
The winning streak of BJP post 2014 election and successful formation of governments in State after State clearly suggest that charismatic leadership of Modi and Shah duo is still on a roll. Strong economic measures and major reforms have equal number of fans and critics. Having said that, MCD election results, 2017 where BJP swept all three Municipal Corporations in Delhi reaffirms people’s faith in BJP leadership. In all probabilities, BJP will claim maximum number seats in the Delhi bypolls, but it is wishful thinking that BJP will be sole winner owing to the fact that people, chiefly the middle class is not happy with the current budget for 2018-19. Strong economic steps, even sops will be required to convince Middle Class families that constitute most of the population in Delhi to cast their votes in favor of them.
3.) Congress could stage a comeback in Delhi Bypolls:
Congress under the leadership of Smt. Sheila Dikshit had successfully run the Government for a long period of time. Major development works, building infrastructure and Metro train came under the regime of Congress. Though it cannot be denied that the last term of Smt. Sheila Dikshit was marred with scams and controversies but also it is true that she had to bear the brunt of people’s anger against central Government’s policy paralysis and numerous scams. At present, when Delhiites are feeling cheated by AAP and aggrieved with BJP’s stern economic policy, Congress may grab some seats, that will be a face-saving result for Congress Party that has zero seats in the Delhi assembly.
In the end, observing the current mood of people of Delhi, assessing data and statistics available and extrapolating persisting trends we may predict that the division of seats in Delhi Bypolls among these parties more or less will be as under:-
BJP: 10 Seats (± 2)
Congress: 06 Seats (± 2)
AAP: 03 Seats (± 1)
Others: 01 Seats (± 1)