On Sunday, Shiv Sena leader Sanjay Raut, who is also the editor of Shiv Sena mouthpiece ‘Saamana’, questioned whether Atal Ji’s death was announced late so that PM Modi could deliver his speech on 15th August without any disruption. He asked this question in an article in Marathi titled: “What is Swarajya?”. Sanjay Raut wrote, “Rather than our people, our rulers should first understand what is ‘swarajya’ (self-rule). Vajpayee died on 16 August, but from 12-13 August, his condition was deteriorating. To avoid national mourning and lowering of flag to half-mast on Independence Day, and also (because) Prime Minister Narendra Modi was to make his elaborate speech from the Red Fort, Vajpayee left this world on 16 August (or his death was announced).”
Needless to say that Raut was criticized for this tasteless statement. But if we analyse closely, this is not the first time Raut said something that enraged the nation. It has been a part of Raut’s long list of misadventures.
A politician is known by the advisors he keeps. A political conduit harbors a very important role in polity. He basically lacks a mass appeal but imbibes that necessary brains and skills to take political decisions. If intelligent, a political brain can take you ahead by leaps and bounds. Nevertheless, if toxic he can also bring your downfall and hence he assumes a very coherent position.
One of the biggest examples of a supposed downfall may have been the way Sharad Yadav was influencing Nitish Kumar. It not only threatened Kumar’s hold over the state of Bihar but also compromised his political prospects. Kumar broke alliance with the BJP and that had dented his standing in Patna with RJD or Lalu capitalizing on the sidelines. Nevertheless, good sense prevailed and Kumar was able to come back into the NDA fold after unceremoniously breaking grounds with the RJD. This is where Sharad Yadav started sulking but Kumar overcame this hurdle to have a ghar wapasi.
Nitish Kumar could break away from the shackles of Sharad Yadav and his influence but another Sharad Yadav is brewing in another state. Shiv Sena during the times of Bal Thackeray had tremendous hold over the state of Maharashtra. Now this is not just in terms of votes or numbers but also in lieu with the socio and cultural dominance the Sena harbored. After his death a lot of things have changed in the Sena for bad. And all these suppositions have been attributed to Sena MP Sanjay Raut.
Raut has been the editor of Sena mouth piece Samna and had been a part of Uddhav Thackeray’s inner coterie. Perhaps Raut and his antics were diluted when Bal Thackeray was around. Today, the Sena stands in a precarious situation post Bal Thackeray demise and Sanjay Raut has firmly established himself as the most prominent influencer in the Sena core team.
Sanjay Raut has been an admixture of many politicians and strategists. He is wily like Amar Singh and has the necessary arrogance of Sharad Yadav. Until now the barbs laid by Sanjay Raut or the Sena chief was mostly pertaining to their ill misgivings against the BJP.
Sanjay Raut even praised Congress scion Rahul Gandhi and deemed him capable of running the nation adding that the Modi wave is losing its sheen. Along with the qualities of Amar Singh or Sharad Yadav, Raut has even now imbibed the qualities of Digvijay Singh who happens to be in the inner circle of Rahul Gandhi’s team.
Although Sena has made such statements in the past, this one was more damaging to its prestige in terms of supporting the Congress. Sanjay Raut and his consolidation in the Sena will hurt their prospects in the long run. Following are the reasons why a Sanjay Raut controlled Sena will lose hold over the state of Maharashtra and perish.
Firstly, the Sena was a guerilla party which catered aggressively to the Marathi Manoos cause and later to Hindutva. Praising Congress will surely take away this glare from the Sena which now will conform to pseudo secularist policies. After the congress jibe, Uddhav Thackeray did say about Hindutva to perhaps reaffirm its status as a saffron outfit. However, that nullifies when you meet and discuss politics with somebody such as Mamata Banarjee.Nevertheless, the new found love for the Congress and trying to done the Hindutva hat cannot go hand in hand. This will seriously take away from the ideals that were laid down by late Bal Thackeray.
Secondly, even subtly going away from the Hindutva cause might alienate their existing aggressive cadre. This may also make the youth join BJP as then it will remain the only party which will cater to the Hindutva cause. This will severely dent Senas organizational prowess and make it more vulnerable to lose ground. The party has already lost a lot of ground at the grass root level and the rural areas.
Thirdly, if the Sena becomes loosely connected to its cadre and workers, it may create defections in the future. Even if Sanjay Raut is daring the BJP to go alone, a break up in the alliance will severely affect Senas electoral prospects. Sena ministers in the BJP govt may just defect once the formal alliance is broken owing to the whims and fancies or arrogant posturing of a few Sena leaders. In the advent of a snap poll, Sena may have to bear the hammering as BJP has recently emerged stronger not just in municipal elections but also the polls to elect sarpanch and otherwise.
Fourthly, the Sena needs the BJP to survive in the state. Nitish Kumar realized that and his political fortunes were salvaged as he came back to the NDA fold. Sanjay Raut and his barbs are hurting the alliance to take it to a new low everyday and this make further plummet the relations at a certain point of no return. During the 1990s, it was the BJP which needed the Sena and this was realized by somebody like Pramod Mahajan who imbibed smoothness in the relations in lieu with ideology and respect. Sanjay Raut needs to take a leaf out of the same as Sena badly needs the BJP now in reality to gather all the lost ground.
Lastly, as I mentioned before, the Sena is a guerilla party which was highlighted by its aggressive cadre and Bal Thackeray in the past. Now, the party has attained the dynasty or high command like structure which is instilled inside by leaders such as Sanjay Raut. Those were the times when people used to meet Bal Thackeray directly and they believed he would solve their problems. He had a touch with the masses and the classes. Sanjay Raut and his coterie have made it like Congress culture and this is hurting Uddhav Thackerays image. Even if they may make statements supporting Hindutva, Sena cannot have the best of both the worlds.
As CM Fadnavis rightly pointed, Sena cannot be in the govt and opposition both. Its imperative for political brains to instill sense rather than court foolhardiness and this is something which Sanjay Raut needs to understand. Amit Shah is despised by the Sena but they should learn something from him. The modern day Chanakaya has played his cards well and taken BJP to an astounding dominance. If Sena wants to emerging again in Maharashtra, it needs to shed its new damaging image and leaders like Sanjay Raut needs to ponder rather than evoking fresh barbs every now and then.