Coalition in Indian politics has evolved with time. On the contrary, alliances ran Indian polity those days in the 1990s. Today after the emergence of BJP as the only pole in politics with a simple majority, political landscape has changed dramatically. Even at the state level a single party rule has been reinstated in majority of the states. In some few states nevertheless, alliances are still governing. As a matter of fact, alliances those days were formed firmly entrenched in ideological leanings. Today they have become a mere convenience to share the spoils of power.
The relationship between the BJP and the Shiv Sena can be attributed to the same. Love and hate in any alliance is understandable. But their bonhomie has changed over the last few years. The nuances of Hindutva have been replaced by coming together merely for convenience. Those were the days of Pramod Mahajan and Bal Thackeray when relationship was based on mutual respect and a common platform. Today in the era of PM Modi-Shah Combine and the next generation of the Thackerays, a lot of hostility has penetrated in the relations.
The default political setting in the alliance earlier always used to be about the Sena having the larger share. It played the role of a big brother even if nationally the BJP yielded supreme. Today the BJP after emerging as the single largest party in the assembly elections has changed the whole equation. An acrimonious Lok Sabha election of 2014 was followed by a bitter divorce for assembly where Sena and the BJP fought elections separately. Nevertheless, the Saffron partners buried the hatchet and formed a coalition govt. However, the bad blood between them continued to stay. The Sena started criticizing the BJP for its policies, mocked leaders like CM Yogi and even went to the extent of questioning things like foreign policy. The BJP never responded to the barbs except for once when CM Fadnavis mentioned that there are invisible hands which will save his govt in the advent of such an eventuality.
Sanjay Raut, the editor of the Sena mouthpiece and a Rajya Sabha MP has been on the forefront to reflect the views of Matoshree. He has been quite aggressively vocal about BJP and its policies. Uddhav Thackeray had famously said about how his ministers in the govt are carrying resignation letters in their pockets. Following those lines, Raut has fired a fresh salvo where he has again spoken about withdrawal of support to the Fadnavis govt. The entire row over supremacy in the state seems to be reaching its climax. And the cabinet reshuffle seems to be the breaking point. In the recent cabinet reshuffle, other NDA allies were not given more cabinet berths. Raut openly retorted that they were not consulted and it is a murder of the NDA. Adding fuel to the fire, the rumors of Narayan Rane joining BJP has further plummeted relations to the point of supposed no return. Rane was in Sena before joining Congress and is hated by the Sena rank and file.
These latest barbs were accompanied with talks about the possibility of withdrawal of support and questions if they can do it.
So will withdrawal of support by Shiv Sena be a blessing in disguise for the BJP? There are five reasons as to why this pullout may benefit the BJP.
Firstly, in any advent of the Sena calling it off, midterm elections will be looming around the horizon even if BJP manages to get support from other parties. This will help the BJP when the Modi wave is yet to wane and is wholly strong. In a scenario of such snap polls, the people will vote for stability and the BJP is the only party to come close to the same. Anti incumbency has not trickled in and popular measures of the Modi govt are in the offing.
Secondly, those recently held municipal corporation elections have clearly demonstrated the inroads made by the BJP where it went on to win eight out of ten corporations. They nearly displaced the Sena for the BMC by just falling short by a tender margin of two seats. Vote share increased and some municipal bodies like Solapur and Latur became BJP strongholds when in actuality they merely had a presence. Any event of a snap poll will undoubtedly benefit the BJP which is evident with the kind of results in elections all over.
Thirdly, the people will favor BJP simply because state centre bonhomie will be maintained. The Sena is very much against the policies of the BJP in centre. So they rising to power will create hurdles in the smooth functioning of the state and derail a better form of federalism. People will see how Mamata has opposed the Modi govt which has impacted the overall governance of West Bengal and so they may opt for a stable BJP govt in Maharashtra.
Fourthly, it will be like a JD (U) scenario in Bihar. Even if Nitish was or was not interested in going back to the BJP, his party workers and cadre wanted to align with the BJP. Here in Maharashtra, the Sena already has ministers in the Fadnavis govt and they would be reluctant to resign as they are enjoying the spoils of power. This may adversely create divisions within the party and may induce defections in the future which will harm the Sena by all means. The party barring Mumbai, failed to perform at other places and it’s ability to survive in competitive state polity will suffer in case they have to go for elections again.
Lastly, the Sena derives power from the BMC. All its financial muscle power is symbolized by its ability to control BMC since decades. In case of a breakdown in the alliance, BJP will pull out from the BMC which will loosen it’s grip over the prized corporation. In case of BMC polls happening again, this time the BJP may just sneak through and topple the Sena applecart. Without the BMC, the Sena will find it impossible to survive politically. The people in the city of Mumbai are already disgruntled and they may show their disappointment by taking away their citadel.
If the NCP gives an outside support to the BJP, the Sena will have too much to lose again in any advent of that prospect. Even if BJP will be questioned on its position to take support from Pawar, the Sena will be out of reckoning in the state politics.
Unfortunately, the Sena can revitalize their fortunes by remaining in alliance with the BJP. Nitish Kumar realised his folly and did a ghar wapasi when he understood the perils of breaking with the BJP. Sometimes the opposition by Sena seems bitterer than even Congress and it comes across as a nemesis of the BJP. With growing hostility now seemingly reaching a point of break up, the dynamics of Maharashtra politics will undergo a sea change. Another regional player after SP, BSP will be on the verge of biting the dust.