After Bihar now it’s Tamil Nadu. The NDA Empire is all set to triumph another state and this time with mere two seats (Tamilisai Soundararajan of BJP & T. R. Pachamuthu of IJK). If I would have said this before 5^th December 2015 then I could have been called a fool. But after the demise of Selvi Jayaram Jayalalithaa, the equations have changed.

Post Amma AIDMK

After the demise of Amma, the state has seen a lot of downs, and the political infighting within the AIADMK has given ample opportunities to other parties to spread their agenda.

The DMK, which is the opposition party in the state, won back a lot of its vote share in the 2016 state election, and in the last few months MK Stalin, who is the acting president of the DMK, has been able to garner a lot of public support. The AIADMK in the state elections had managed to get 54.6 per cent of the vote share and the DMK was close behind with 37.8 per cent vote share.

With the absence of charismatic leader like J Jayalalithaa and a war within AIDMA is unable to handle growing image of Stalin in state and PM Modi in the centre. They have a tough choice to make

• Getting along again despite of differences.
• Letting BJP enter Tamil Nadu (Which has always been a dream of BJP)

Unification of AIDMK

Led by O Panneerselvam and E Palaniswami, the two factions have been fighting for the last few months after the death of Jayalalithaa. Sasikala, on the other hand, is already in jail. AIADMK Deputy General Secretary TTV Dhinakaran has reportedly set an August deadline for the merger and indicated that he will take up the effort if the others on either side failed to do the job. Dhinakaran, the nephew of jailed party chief VK Sasikala, had announced stepping aside from party activities in April this year after a section of ministers revolted against him and Sasikala. He was later arrested by the Delhi Police in a bribery case over the AIADMK’s ‘Two Leaves’ election symbol. However, on being released on bail last month, he said he would resume party work. He had also said Sasikala told him to wait for two months to see if the merger happens.

After almost 60 days of silence, controversial AIADMK deputy general secretary T T V Dinakaran 0n 4^th August said efforts to bring together the divided factions of the party together are on.

Timing

With an eye on the cabinet reshuffle scheduled in August its evident that deadline is set and they will have to come together before that and get on board. The political Pundits are anticipating AIDMK might get 3 central berths. Once Minister and two ministers of states are all set to join the cabinet from Tamil Nadu if we had to go by series of the tweets from Republic TV

Tough Choice to make

Former Chief Minister O Panneerselvam had put the precondition that Sasikala and Dinakaran must be removed from party posts and kept away from government for any merger to happen.

Former education minister M Pandiarajan reiterated OPS’ demand, saying that the merger can happen only under the leadership of OPS. But chief minister Edapaddi Palanisami has dug in heels and insists that he remains the chief minister, which is where the talks were getting stuck, party sources said

“Demand for a probe into death of J Jayalalithaa and ouster of Mannargudi family are the two preconditions that are absolutely non-negotiable,” Pandiarajan said.

OPS will in all probability form another committee to discuss merger modalities, sources said.

But Dinakaran himself has ruled out a merger and is standing in the way of a reunion. He asserts that he was acting on behalf of general secretary VK Sasikala who is in jail in Bengaluru. So precisely its Amit Shah Vs Dinakaran.

Amit Shah is known as Chanakya of BJP and he has a mammoth task in hand to reunite both the fraction of AIDMK and keep VK Sasikala influence away.

Fortress in Making & Amit Shah the Chanakya of BJP

“If Amma was here she would have been really happy and would have showered us with her blessings. Wherever Amma might be her blessing will always be with the people of Tamil Nadu,” said Prime Minister Narendra Modi at Dr APJ Abdul Kalam memorial’s inauguration in Rameshwaram.

This is the 3^rd time in 8 months PM Modi was in Tamil Nadu and this makes it quite evident that it’s a fortress in making. Lot of analyst say that the real power of BJP is the grass root workers of the RSS and BJP which has got deadlier with the charismatic leadership of PM Modi & Master Strategist Amit Shah.

March19^th Coimbatore, City hosted 3-day RSS annual meet from March. The Annual meeting of Akhil Bharatiya Pratinidhi Sabha (ABPS), highest body for policy formulation and decision making of RSS was conducted. It was inaugurated by RSS Sarasanghachalak Mohan Bhagwat and Sarakaryavah (General Secretary), Suresh Bhaiyya Joshi. About 1,500 elected representatives of RSS, State level office bearers of RSS, National office bearers of Sangh affiliated (Sangh Parivar) organizations attended the meeting, which held at Amrita University on the outskirts.

Activities of organisations like Sevabharati, Samskrita Bharati, SAKSHAM, Kreeda Bharati, Vidya Bharati, ABVP, BJP, BMS were submitted in the meeting. The conference discussed the prevailing situation, including political and social issues and take efforts to solve them, the release said. This is for the first time the annual event of RSS being held in Tamil Nadu.

Why Tamil Nadu is important?

In Tamil Nadu Congress was in power until 1967, but later due to the rising hand of DK due to the ambitious leadership of Dravida Kazhagam, founded by Periyar and nurtured by leaders Anna, Karunanidhi and MGR, DMK came to power in 1967. After which the regional parties AIADMK and DMK had been in power.

People who understand the Tamil Politics know that it’s based on language. Congress has lost the whole country because of Scams but Tamil nadu still believes in DMK and that is the real issue. With Junior & Senior Chitambram in the Legal claws, ED will soon go after the 2G guys and if they get into power it will be difficult to get them to justice.

This is the chance:

It’s a now or never chance for BJP. The vacuum which has been created with demise of Jayalalithaa and ever old Karunanithi, and that requires a mighty and charismatic leader to hold up this beautiful state which is still connected to its values and has a unique identity on the glorious Indian Map. Its known fact if AIDMK gets unified then the state government will last for its complete tenure till 2021 and by then the fear of Tamil Nadu that if BJP will come into power Hindi will be imposed on them will be gone.

Jaya undoubtedly had an iron grip on state affairs and Modi’s lunch visit to her in 2015 soon after he became PM showed Amma’s sway and the present situation in the state is reflective of the void her death caused in “Amma Nadu” and for the AIADMK. Will Modi be able to fill that void and create another saffron wave? Well, the answer is only a matter of time.