The recently concluded MCD elections seemed to foreshadow the demise of the AAP for many, with each of those with such an opinion proliferating it with great conviction.
But away from the, frankly, mindless contemplation and speculation about the fate of a party set to remain in power for nearly three more years, much analytical prowess was directed toward assessing why the AAP lost as pathetically as it did in the first place, and unknowingly threw up an important issue, for among the plethora of reasons offered, one stood out as a very tiny, yet precious symbol of electoral ignorance.
The Rajouri Garden by-poll was heralded incessantly as the event would inspire a grand swing of opinion at the behest of the AAP, while it received an equally mind-numbing amount of coverage prior to the elections and was projected as the event that would decide the municipal elections.
Even if one were to take a backseat and accept that this might be the reason AAP was handed that horrifying loss, it would be prudent to ask the essential question – why?
Why have, for decades, pre or post electoral polls – be they opinion, exit, or else – been perpetuated as the one facet of our electoral system that can make or break a party’s campaign?
Have not our voters a brain of their own, or elections too, like most other things in our country, nothing but a stage for our countrymen to display their unabashed herd mentality?
Like any other issue that plagues India, perhaps this too could be blamed on illiteracy. After all, the myth of the opinion “swing” belongs to the same burrow of misguided compulsions that have often persuaded the Indian electorate to put in place governments ‘out of sympathy’.
An opinion poll or the like would be nothing but beneficial if influencing the public to try and understand the views of the side they’re voting against, rather than dismissing it based on pre-conceived notions.
For most of the Indian electorate, though, it doesn’t trigger an interest or curiosity to understand why the majority seeks to vote the way it does, but rather abandon one’s own, individual judgment in favor jumping on the bandwagon.
Furthermore, it’s been established an unholy amount of times in the past that many in our nation’s electorate uphold the fantasy that elections can somehow be capable of being black and white competitions to choose the best candidate, and that the majority is probably voting for the apt candidate.
The ‘right’ vote won’t win you a cheque and a handshake from Amitabh Bachchan, no matter the degree of conviction that yours was the “superior” candidate.
In light of these reasons, it’s, to an extent, understandable as to why these pre-electoral polls are often disgraced by institutions such as the Election Commission, that too with a government sanction rallying it.
Thus, it might be of worth to also pose an existential question to these facilitators of the dreaded opinion “swing”, and if they’re even worth keeping.
For politicians, the polls have become recently what EVM’s had been to them for the past decade, nothing but an excuse to present at the end of an incompetent showing in any election.
For the population, it’s perhaps a reflection of the current political sentiment, while the mainstream media treats publishing opinion and exit polls as a matter of right.
When analyzed individually, the opinion and the exit differ greatly in terms of their effects.
An exit poll, being nothing but a post-vote enquiry, serves perhaps to cut down the time in which a citizen finds out his/her potential government, although these predictions can be, at times, bizarrely off the mark.
Also, something that only functions to serve a voter who deems attending a Sunday night buffet more important than finding out election results isn’t all that necessary.
Lazy? Yes. Even mildly important to the electoral system’s functioning or the retaining freedom of press? Not a chance.
The opinion poll, as mentioned earlier, can be important in convincing the public to, at least, afford the other side a thought by making an individual realize that his/her candidate of choice doesn’t command a majority, and thereby compelling them to understand why.
Though, this function of the opinion poll has been diluted to its very core by the mainstream media. Far from an essential reflection of opinion, these polls differ meteorically from each other in regards to whom they herald to be the public’s choice, while their incessant publications prior to an election don’t exactly aid the situation either.
Moreover, these polls have devolved to become a source of competition between contemporary media houses, with the firm that posted the least inaccurate predictions earning bragging rights, considering that none of them are ever right anyway.
Taking into account the repercussions involving any electoral procedure around the world, there have been a significant amount of scholarly theories concerning polls, too. The most prominent one, though, is highly critical.
The boomerang effect theory purports that potential voters can often harbor complacency if opinion polls display their candidate of choice to be in the prime position, thus compelling them to not go out and vote.
Considering the fact that this encapsulates the events that transpired in the run-up to the American Presidential elections last winter, it would undoubtedly be imprudent for anyone to disregard this theory entirely.
And then, back to the original topic, these polls might not be impervious to shaping voter opinion after all, though the blame for that doesn’t lie within their inherent nature, but rather with our treatment of them.
Although, the electorate must not be the only source of ire, either. The establishment too, with its half-hearted attempts to eliminate the poll phenomenon entirely, perennially remains on the tightrope of keeping the electorate satisfied on one end and the reformers happy on the other.
And, the election commission’s belief that simply outlawing an activity a majority of the electorate intentionally chooses to indulge in refuses to confront the reasons which make it such a gnarly menace in the first place. The establishment should, instead, emphasize greatly the need for comprehensive voter education, for the common man remains unaware of the influence any elected government exerts over him.
That blind ignorance has such a tight noose around the neck of an independent citizen’s highest and most essential right is telling of our democracy’s inability to achieve potential.
Education, thus, both electoral and general, was advocated by an entire generation of politicians as something that would make the world’s biggest democracy, its greatest.