Politics in this country has evolved over the years. New parties entering politics are using activism as a plank. AAP was a by-product of Lok Pal agitation and fighting corruption was purportedly its ideology. Today it stands exposed with neck deep reverses of everything it had promised to change. And the effect is visible on its electoral performance all over.
When AAP sounded its poll bugle for the states of Punjab and Goa, it seemed the party was on the brink to spread and become national. This is exactly how it was portrayed during 2014 General elections. However, its attempts to launch itself as an alternative was demolished under the weight of an impending Modi wave. Its fresh effort to re-launch itself failed miserably yet again as it had to lose deposits in both the states it contested. Punjab was touted as the next Delhi for AAP. But the quest to come to power was replaced by a brutal consolation to be placed as distant third.
The biggest problem with team AAP was their inability to consolidate in Delhi before nursing ambitions to spread into other states. Any seasoned politician will dream of national prospects only if he is firmly entrenched politically into his home state. Kejriwal on the other hand is adopting too much haste in trying to parachute himself into national politics and in this process, is losing out on his own turf.
Delhi established faith in AAP as they gained foothold in their maiden assembly polls. But the party formed under the ideals of anti-corruption emblem and fighting main stream parties quickly made up with Congress to form a coalition govt. Despite a monumental betrayal, AAP still managed to romp home in the next assembly elections but this time in an unprecedented fashion. Their handsome victory raised a lot of eye brows even raised hopes of AAP fighting BJP at the national level. Losses in assembly elections in Delhi and Bihar had subtly started raising questions about Modi Shah domination. This little advantage opposition had secured was ended by Modi wave coming back in style and substance in subsequent elections.
AAP had made big promises and every party does so in its manifesto. However, the rate at which they back tracked from them was certainly a new discovery in Indian politics.
A victorious AAP began showing signs of a main stream polity as opponents of Kejriwal were purged, lot of money was spent in campaigning and leaders were caught in sex scandals and scams. Even its flag ship socialist project in the form of Mohalla clinics failed to live up to its expectations and were under scanner too of the vigilance commission. All these actions were mixed with Kejriwal and his tweets or rants with respect to PM Modi. They were made at regular intervals under media spotlight which perhaps helped him gain footage and publicity. The aura he had faked during the Lokpal agitation fell deep down even below the levels of politicians like RJD chief and this together had impact in fortunes of AAP in other states.
The biggest setback for AAP was not Punjab or Goa. In these states, they can at least argue saying they had fought elections for the very first time. A Delhi by poll of Rajouri Garden is the centerpiece of AAP decline. It was not really about the loss but the sheer magnitude of the same. AAP candidate lost his deposit and perhaps much significance was attached to its fall out. The outcome of a single seat however is going to reflect upon the overall prospects of AAP in the incoming MCD elections. AAP was piggybacking on expected anti-incumbency as BJP has ruled MCD for years. This factor, however, seems to have diluted owing to the much-famed defamation case which has exposed Kejriwal very badly. More than the outcome, the focus was put on the legal fees which was burdened on the tax payer. To deflect the attention from the entire morass, ‘fictitious tampering of EVM’ was raked up and used to question recent BJP win in states like UP.
A win for AAP in Rajouri garden may have boosted their morale but a BJP win has made the saffron party confident of coming back to power in the MCD. Demonetization and popularity of PM Modi has already helped BJP in capturing many election bound states. The test here in MCD for the BJP would be of repeating the feat in an anti-incumbency laced municipal body. With parties like Congress calling this by election as a referendum for AAP govt, the psychological after effect of the defeat will be immense. This may be taken as a reflection of peoples anger against the AAP Govt.
When PM Modi was anticipating a national role, he vouched for it only after securing a spectacular governance show in the state of Gujarat. Leaders like Nitish Kumar and Mamata are harboring those dreams but their attention towards the centre has weakened their hold over the states they are governing. Arvind Kejriwal is from the same breed but went a step more further. His national ambitions without securing ground in Delhi has sabotaged his party everywhere and now it’s affecting Delhi.
The people of Delhi had tremendous faith in AAP and it was evident with respect to the scale of win in assembly. But by polls are a fundamental turn around and has indicated discontent and disappointment against AAP. With not so easy MCD elections looming in the corner, a party struggling to remain regional and dreaming of becoming national is now on the verge of reducing itself to just a Mohalla party.