Bipolarity of Indian politics has been eroded by a thumping BJP victory in 2014. First time in thirty years, a simple majority was obtained. Nevertheless, a toothless opposition seemed to have come back resoundingly with Delhi and Bihar. However, their euphoria was short lived. BJP came back strongly to win north eastern states like Assam and gobble up biggies like UP.
A win in UP was a stellar performance. It not only helped BJP put a decisive state in its kitty but also rendered next Lok Sabha polls as a cake walk. The magnitude of the victory had enormous shockwaves across the political spectrum. Omar Abdullah tweeted expressing hope that the opposition will find itself in a better position to take on PM Modi in 2024. His skipping of 2019 was very significant from the political perspective.
Any form of a united opposition requires two essentials. Firstly, a strong mass leader who will be the face of the alliance and secondly, a unifying factor or issue. During Indira Gandhi and emergency, the fight against an authoritarian Congress had brought all factions in the opposition together. Emergency and suspension of rights were unpopular and became the glue to stick all the parties. Jaiprakash Narayan had presented that much needed cohesiveness to combine all factions of the opposition against Indira Gandhi.
Today PM Modi is enjoying immense popularity and the opposition just cannot find an issue that could galvanize them and mount a spirited comeback.
At the backdrop of BJP romping home in UP and possibly winning MCD elections, Nitish Kumar met Sonia Gandhi. The meet has triggered speculations of a developing political alignment of sorts.
Officially the conversation was said to be a matter of courtesy but sources say it cannot be without a political discussion.
Reportedly, Nitish Kumar and Sonia Gandhi had consultations regarding opposition parties coming together to challenge the BJP. Quite naturally this idea was based on their usual excuse of upholding secular credentials. And the first step in this process would be to finalize a joint candidate of the opposition for upcoming Presidential polls. Nitish wanted the Congress to take the lead for the same. The Left parties too are willing to pitch in and support in case a consensus secular nominee is zeroed upon by all the parties.
PM Modi is convincing the nation that Gujarat model of development is the way India can be governed. The opposition somewhere believes Bihar model of grand coalition may be the only path to counter Modi’s model. A presidential election may be the natural step to test such political experiment at the national level. However, there would be many other problems in the realm of fighting future elections and the big one in 2019.
There is no face in the opposition who can match the aura of PM Modi for the time being. Nitish Kumar is the most credible face but is in a precarious situation. Sonia Gandhi would want Nitish Kumar to be her gladiator and take Modi head on, but will the Bihar CM comply? Looks dicey. On one hand, Nitish Kumar wants to formulate a grand coalition but on the other hand his grip over Bihar is day by day slipping under the treachery of Lalu Yadav and RJD. Rabri Devi has already vouched for her son to be the CM. To put it more clearly, Patna is headed for a jungle raj. Nitish seems to have hinted a certain closeness to the BJP and has kept his one leg in the opposition camp. Overall, he is keeping all cards close to his chest. But this stance of not being firm somewhere may disturb the cohesiveness of the opposition.
Nitish Kumar like AB Vajpayee in erstwhile NDA has that image to lead a coalition of many parties with differences. Apart from Nitish, other regional players lack that acceptability to steer the front. Mamata is the most vocal anti BJP leader but her party is neck deep in corruption charges such as Narada scam. These allegations have blunted her effectiveness in combating the central govt. She is also worried about rising tide of BJP in her own state. Arvind Kejriwal is on the verge of losing MCD elections. His influence is on the brink of shrinking in his state of Delhi. AAP has national aspirations but now seems to be reduced into a Mohalla party. Naveen Patnaik has decimated his clout in Odisha and SP or BSP are completely marginalized after UP election loss. Although Mayawati has strongly recommended a grand coalition, it must meet practicality on the ground. Even if Congress was discussing possibilities of leading an anti BJP front, it’s not a national party anymore. With poor leadership and dwindling cadre at the grass roots, it has lost the power to galvanize a strong rebuke to the BJP in the form of any grand alliance.
Even if the alliance has no face, it could have cobbled up based on an issue. Unfortunately for them, PM Modi has left no elbow room for them to capitalize on any subject. The way suspension of rights and corruption brought opposition together against Indira Gandhi, there is no discontent or scams against PM Modi. On the contrary, his popularity is rising.
Every day is not Sunday and so every election against BJP cannot be won based on an experimental grand alliance tried in Bihar. Subsequent elections have made it clear that winning Patna was an aberration subjected specifically to that state. The biggest problem a grand coalition will ever face is the dearth of issues and opposition to popular policies like demonetisation. Inevitability, ‘EVM fraud’ like lame excuses will be put and an alliance of convenience will be made for a reason which the parties in opposition are in denial.
The idea of a grand alliance is nothing but clutching straws to survive politically. Holding hands to prevent drowning is not going to serve any purpose. With the lack of a credible face and a uniting issue, this coming together of parties for presidential polls may be a mere salvaging factor. There is a political vacuum in the opposition and forming a grand coalition will not achieve in filling the gaps.
Recently Congress leader Mani Shanker Iyer said if Congress joined the proposed coalition, PM Modi will be consigned to history. His predictions have always worked the reverse way. His words may be echoing the fate of all the political parties.