In my previous article, I covered three states where BJP can make a mark in the form of establishing a much-needed political foundation. In this piece, I enlarge my scope to analyze few more states down south where BJP has no or low presence.
When it comes to states like Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Tamil Nadu, politics here is prevalent in the form of cultism. Blind worship and fan following mixed with cinema has been the trademark of these states in general. As 2019 is on horizon, BJP with its unprecedented victories all over would like to expand their influence in these states too.
Following is the analysis of BJP and its chances in the states of Tamil Nadu, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh where it is expected to improve and do well soon.
Tamil Nadu :
This state has been a regional stronghold with cultism in the forefront and Dravidian politics as the base. Even when Rajiv Gandhi won in 1984 general elections riding on a sympathy wave post Indira assassination, Tamil Nadu remained unaffected and continued to cater with regionalism. Following Jayalalitha’s death and the subsequent split in AIADMK rank and file, BJP has obtained an opportunity to enlarge its foot prints in the state where its presence stands at bare minimum. AIADMK is fighting a civil war of sorts for power and even the party symbol was up for grabs. EPS undoubtedly like Manmohan Singh of Sasikala Natarajan is fighting OPS who has revolted to push or protect the legacy of Jayalalitha. OPS has good relations with the BJP and as seen during Jallikatu issue or otherwise, the co-operation between the state and the centre was smooth. On the other hand, DMK is no different than AIADMK. The party is also prone to infighting. Since personality based cultism is the hall mark of politics here, vacuum created after Jayalalitha and Karunanidhi will not be easy to fill for their respective parties. Perhaps, this is where BJP can come in and use this opportunity to emerge as the third alternative. Nevertheless, managing to woo Rajnikanth may strengthen BJP like never.
The other important steps needed would be shaking its organizational structure in the state and advancement of cadre base. A three-day meeting of the RSS in Coimbatore, the first in the organization’s 92-year-old history, held in Tamil Nadu has ignited talks that the stage could be set for the saffron party’s push in the state. Even if this conclave was said to be routine, it may actualize a grand plan for the BJP to make inroads in the state.
Unlike north, a common Tamil on the street is still not very open to Sangh Parivar and this is something the RSS is planning to see and re-invent itself.
The bottom line is that the state of Tamil Nadu has 39 Lok Sabha seats and usually one party has a complete takeover of them in an election. In the long run, BJP can become a major force here and this state will serve as a crucial reserve for the Lok Sabha numbers.
Andhra Pradesh:
As the state of Andhra was divided and Telangana formed as additional state, this event still could not salvage Congress party’s fortunes in the elections of 2014. The state contributed hugely in terms of numbers which helped UPA stay afloat in power for ten years. Post UPA years and the state bifurcation has reduced Congress and up scaled TDP who has been in an alliance with the BJP. The 37th BJP Formation Day was celebrated at Guntur in which the leaders deliberated about the measures to be taken for the party to reach across all sections of society here.
The party is confident of being the single largest in the next elections and preparations are planned to resurrect it at the grass root levels. Even Amit Shah has publicly expressed his opinion about BJP emerging as a force on its own by 2019. A sticky issue between TDP and BJP is the allotment of special category status which is pending in the parliament. This issue may become a bone of contention for the BJP to snap ties and go alone as it has already made its intentions public. Unlike Tamil Nadu where the regional parties seem to be in a disarray, TDP is going good with a formidable performance in legislative council elections which coincided with BJPs spectacular win in UP. However, bifurcation of the state and promises of financial help may take centre stage in the state politics with 2019 in horizon. Anti-incumbency for Naidu and calls for special status will be key issues in 2019 and YSR Congress will try to hijack and take prominence. BJP must play its cards well to streamline its goals for 2019 and going alone may be a risk Shah is willing to take.
Telangana:
Perhaps one of the reasons to go alone in Andhra would be the temptation to go alone in the state of Telangana which may see BJP rising as serious alternative to TRS. With Congress in doldrums and TDP losing its political base here (12 of its 15 MLAs have joined TRS), BJP is trying to carve its own political space in the newly formed state. The primary objective of the BJP is to decimate MIM which is dominant in old city areas and Hyderabad LS seat.
The other objective is going solo and somewhere formulating a Maharashtra like scenario. “The model is like Maharashtra where despite being in sync with the ideology of Shiv Sena for the last 25 years, we fought alone”, Telangana BJP spokesman Rao has said.
There are two reasons which is providing fertile grounds for the BJP to make good progress in the state. Firstly, TRS govt under Rao has failed to deliver on its promises and anti-incumbency will be acute. The state in its infancy is expecting better development and the centre under PM Modi may push people into realising BJP is a better alternative. Secondly, the backward sections of the Muslims have been granted 12% reservations by the TRS govt. This may significantly cause a counter polarization which the BJP can secure as a catchment area to propel its growth here.
Telangana and Andhra Pradesh are somewhere connected and a political decision to go alone in the former may have far reaching effects on the other state. Severing alliance to go solo may be on BJP’s agenda for both these states. Meanwhile, Tamil Nadu is experiencing a political churning and BJP needs to capitalize on it to make inroads. With PM Modi juggernaut in full swing, BJP has the best chance to see itself make a ‘Karnataka like expedition’ in these three southern states.