A SP BSP alliance being discussed in Uttar Pradesh?

As soon as the exit poll numbers came in, it was clear that there is a massive saffron surge on its way. Barring the lone exception of Punjab, where BJP plays the junior partner to Shiromani Akali Dal, all other states show clear advantage BJP. While BJP looks set to sweep Uttarakhand and Goa, it is expected to take comfortable leads in Uttar Pradesh and Manipur. Now these are desperate times for the BJP adversaries and desperate times, as they say, need desperate measures.

One such desperate move seems to be a possible SP BSP alliance.

Listen to this very crucial statement by UP CM Akhilesh Yadav

While Akhilesh Yadav repeatedly mentioned that he is Confident of Samajwadi Party’s thumping win in Uttar Pradesh, he also mentioned that said nobody wants President Rule in the state. On being questioned if SP wishes to form an alliance with the BSP, in case it doesn’t get majority, Yadav hinted that it is better to join hands with Mayawati than to see the state under President Rule and remote controlled by the BJP.

Akhilesh Yadav spearheaded SP’s spirited electoral campaign against the BJP and the BSP while party patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav merely appeared in guest roles. It is clear that is it Akhilesh Yadav who is calling the shots. One must remember that Mayawati has been averse to joining with the SP because of many reasons, one of which is the infamous guest house episode. One must also understand that the problems that Mayawati has are with Mulayam and his brother Shivpal Yadav. With Akhilesh at the helm of the affairs, BSP would be somewhat comfortable negotiating. Of course, the common rhetoric in that case would be alliance of secular forces to keep communal elements at bay.

But BJP shouldn’t be worried. BJP should get a comfortable majority on its own. In one of my previous analyses, I underlined the role of other OBC (Non Yadavs) voters. They constitute 29% of the total electorate and most of them are aligned towards BJP.

The general feeling is that SP couldn’t get non-Yadav OBC support, BSP couldn’t get non-Jatav Dalit support, Ajit Singh couldn’t gather Jaat support and Muslims were divided between the two supposedly secular blocks. While most exit polls put BJP below 200, my analysis says that it should clock anywhere between 260-300 seats.