When counting of votes started in all the states, the spotlight was on magnum UP. The anticipated result in this state was attributed to everything from demonetization impact to the measure of Modi wave and acceptability of development as a key to win the state mired by caste equations. As the trends poured in, a seemingly Modi wave seems to have roared in to a giant mega tsunami. UP had a sweeping effect of Modi and BJP won more than 300 seats in an unprecedented mandate.
However, as much light was on Lucknow, Modi surge in another Hindi heartland had a more damaging onslaught. The hill state of Uttarakhand was expected to go into the BJP kitty. But the sheer magnitude of it was something again like UP, a complete magnum opus. The party won 58 seats and decimated its principal rival in the form of Congress. If a post mortem must be performed to decode the reasons for the BJP to clinch a historical victory, we may also have to examine the rationale behind the Congress drubbing.
If victory of BJP in this state is to be caricatured with symbolism, it could be incumbent CM Harish Rawat losing both the seats he contested. It had more bearing after effect considering before elections, Rawat was portrayed as Bahubali trouncing BJP candidates. And as the water recedes, Congress is picking up the pieces as the BJP has surmounted a monumental watershed.
Established in 2002, the hill state carved out from UP has political scenario in the assembly like an admixture of Goa and Tamil Nadu. What I mean is that two parties alternatively have enjoyed power like the way DMK and AIADMK do so in the Tamilnadu, but like Goa, parties come to power by a wafer-thin majority of sorts encompassing independents. On this backdrop, elections were fought between BJP who were riding on Modi wave and demonetisation without a CM face and Rawat who reportedly is the only CM in the state’s short history to have faced the maximum dissent.
BJP and Shah yet again tried and tested the NAMO brand here and it was applied on the ground even if major states like UP simultaneously required PM to focus more there. The PM addressed four rallies and tried to emphasize priorities that resonated with masses here such as emboldening tourism, creating more employment and promising transparency in contrast with Rawat govt which was mired in corruption allegations. BJP also roped in other star campaigners like Smriti Irani, Arun Jaitley and so on who extensively portrayed seriousness in central leadership to see a change in Dehradun. Impact of demonetisation mixed with other fulfilled promises by Modi like OROP pushed fortunes of BJP higher as defence community in the hill state is prominent.
BJP also had chosen candidates, giving tickets to Congress party rebels. This had undoubtedly a risk factor owing to a disgruntled lot of old timers. Nevertheless, the gamble worked and in fact it did in a state where elections are too close to call in terms of vote differences pertaining to a win or loss with parties just scrambling to form governments. Ticket distribution too was done much earlier than other parties which gave BJP a firm foundation to build a robust campaign craft and inspite of having a galaxy of leaders the party fought silently behind BC Khanduri and no CM face was projected.
Although a resurgent BJP was quite confident of wresting Uttarakhand, it could not have been more easy with the ruling Congress party in a complete disarray.
Anti-incumbency was not as bad as the way defections and dissidence in the local Congress unit was developing owing to an alleged high handedness of the CM. Elected as the CM by the party high command after much bickering deliberations, a lot of leaders leaving the party fold cost them dear. The other aspect also was election management unleashed by poll strategist Prashant Kishor having a disconnect with grass root party Congress workers which compounded with exit of stalwarts like Yashpal Arya. The leader who is known to have a sway in the Kumaon region created a vacuum along with the fact that nine other leaders in the past too had left protesting.
Inspite of all other reasons, Rawat had detrimental corruption charges attributed to him personally and his govt. Mining and liquor allotment scams which had reached the coterie of CMs advisors had a dampening effect on his image. But nothing was so damaging as Rawat seen in a sting CD that showed him negotiating a deal to buy dissidents. It was not surprising that he lost both the seats he fought and was a defining moment in the Uttarakhand polls.
Parties like Uttarakhand Kranti Dal or BSP which like RLD in UP were always trying to find niche with playing the role of being the kingmakers were washed out these elections. The contributing factor for the BJP may have been winning also at their expense which gave the BJP that unassailable surge to gobble the state.
The loss of Congress in Uttarakhand has the snapshot of all its usual shortcomings. Inner fighting, lack of enthusiasm amongst cadre, an arrogant self centred CM, a disinterested party high command and allegations of monumental corruption together ensured the state would give a decisive majority to the BJP. The grand old party seemed resigned to its inevitable fate.