One of the everlasting significance of municipal elections in Maharashtra were not the BMC polls. It was Solapur which experienced a political turmoil after nearly four decades. Modi wave now transformed into a BJP surge along with a demonetization flow decimated a Congress stronghold since 1964. As BJP is tectonically shape shifting into a pan India role, its wresting everything in its path. The party albeit known as national was mostly confined to Hindi heartlands. Its foray now into south and toppling Tarun Gogoi in Assam to break into the north east has made it into a national alternative in the real sense of the term.
BJP will again hope to bust a Congress bastion when it is frantically trying to make an impact in the north-eastern state of Manipur.
The state known for the heroics of Mary Kom and the exploits of Iron Sharmila, is hitherto unknown when it comes to CM Okram Ibobi Singh who now is vying hard for his record fourth successive term. With elections scheduled in two phases for electing the constituent assembly, the ruling Congress is firefighting a massive anti-incumbency with a resurgent BJP on the verge to make heavy in roads. Ethnicity in the form of Meitei, Naga, Kuki and Pangal form a diversified electorate with Meitei majority and an indigenous total of many tribal groups constituting about 20 percent population in Manipur. Ibobi is credited with being suave and wily to manage the state with varied groups in dispute, fighting defections, overcoming perils of an economic blockade and bouts of heavy ethnic insurgency. The ‘Armed Forces Special Powers Act’ or AFPSA imposed in the state owing to the same has seen rising extra judicial killings correspondingly to his tenure. Insurgency in the state of Manipur has been plagued with various forms and formats ranging from those secessionist groups who want to separate Manipur from India to those mired by ethnicity in lieu with merging the state with Nagaland. The tensions between the majority Meitei and the minority hill tribes have brewed a seething dis balance to arrest growth and potential in the state. Under the backdrop of this violence and rising unemployment, the economic blockade called upon by the United Naga Council has affected prices of food and medicines to rise sky high. CM Singh has an arduous task of coming back to power promising a reversal of this background which is also mired by threats from militant groups to tribal politicians of refraining from accepting Congress tickets to stand for elections.
There are two other additional road blocks the incumbent CM is facing in the form of Iron Sharmila and the BJP. Iron Sharmila after ending her decade long fast has proclaimed to convert activism into politics to achieve her tangible objectives of revoking AFPSA and highlighting systemic corruption. Since Congress under Ibobi has been in power here for a decade, it’s certainly going to face the ire of Sharmila’s anti graft crusade. Ibobi is contesting from Thoubal where Iron Sharmila broke her fast and may become a canvassing point to posture her political might. This may be a replication of Anna Hazare and his Lok pal agitation hitting the scam ridden UPA where the Manmohan Singh govt had to bear the electoral after effects of the burgeoning crusade.
The real challenge however directly to the throne would be from the BJP. The biggest advantage for the BJP here is having no tumbling skeletons whatsoever to defend which gives enormous space and elbow room to position itself as an effective alternative. Rallies by PM Modi and the door to door campaigning by Amit Shah has demonstrated party’s seriousness in putting its stamp here. Promises to lift the economic blockade under NAGA accord, boosting hydro electric potentiality of the state and exploiting tourism to its fullest magnanimity, all packaged under the umbrella of development is echoing in the form of a rebooted substitute. The laurels of demonetization that has helped BJP sweep elections in many states can also be a trump card here with the BJP state leader Choba Singh claiming the policy choking monetary supplies of the militants.
With respect to stopping the BJP onslaught, Congress in its characteristic peculiarity will be banking on minority votes which has an impact in deciding outcomes in atleast ten to twelve odd seats. Manipur is a microsomal mixture of many ethnic communities and Meitei Muslims or Meitei Pangal hold a political weight. The Congress state govt had announced a reservation of 4 percent for Muslims in govt jobs which it will try to advertise with the rise of the BJP to be countered with minority vote consolidation. Manipur Peoples Party or the Trinamool Congress (which won seven seats in 2012 but couldn’t keep its flock together) may dent their vote bank but other factors may make it worse. Nevertheless, the community is discontented with successive state govts and with the formation of a strong BJP-led NDA government at the Centre, a new political wave was imbibed by Manipur. Renewed BJP clout in Indian politics found supporters from all sections of Manipuri society including Meitei Pangal community. Peoples Resurgence and Justice Alliance started by Iron Sharmila is also in the fray for Pangals and this will make the ruling Congress a bit strenuous to ping on their last hope.
A revival of the forgotten king, Ningthou Leishamba Sanajaoba in form of sharing dais with the BJP President in a rally at Imphal somehow looked symbolic for the state anticipating a change. CM Ibobi Singh practising nepotism (his wife is an MLA and his son too is contesting) provides a contra distinctive narrative to a dynastically flourishing past. With exit polls predicting an increased vote share for the BJP with a decisive edge over the Congress and a neck to neck contest ensuing a hung verdict, another Solapur akin bastion in the northeast just may be up for grabs.