It won’t be incorrect if one says that except the Communists representing the leftist ideology and right to centre (purely in Indian context) BJP, all other political parties in India are simply ‘family controlled’ businesses. Then there are AIADMK and BSP, which were not exactly a family business despite being fiefdoms of individuals. In case of BSP, Kanshi Ram groomed Mayawati to be the future leader and so there were no problems. In AIADMK, however the insecurity of the ‘All-in-One’ leader, whether it was Puratchi Thalaivar MGR or puratchi Thalaivi Amma, no clear succession was announced.
It was people’s preference that transformed Jayalalitha into Amma. If Jayalalitha, who was not related to MG Ramachandran had to stake and fight to gain control over the party post his death, Sasikala assumed control over not only party, but also on the Government, and the succession is almost like a planned succession. The finesse Sasikala displayed in ‘taking over’ the party and government put many political heirs to shame.
For the records, Paneer Selvam resigned from the post of CM of Tamilnadu, and AIADMK MLAs have requested Sasikala to rule the state. Sasikala’s takeover act reminded me one long forgotten Telugu idiom “Water spreads beneath a mat in such a way, one gets to know about the situation only when the mat is submerged”. Normally, any political transition is associated with some fight and bloodbath. Struggle for power in political parties, even while controlled by a single family often spill over into the streets, the latest example being the Samajwadi Pari-War played in the streets of Uttar Pradesh.
Of course, much was said about Sasikala. But, the public didn’t vote for her. In fact, the reactions from general public on Sasikala are almost negative. Despite being in the centre of state’s polity and administration, she remained a shadow of Jaya. However, this shadow is only much powerful. Sasikala and her family, extended to include her caste (main and associated) have been called ‘Mannargudi Mafia’ for long.
There was not a single news in the last three decades about Sasikala that did not create negative waves for the party. Stalin, heir apparent of DMK questioned her accession. Maybe he was doing the job of opposition. But, there are many others including the ordinary ‘Tamizhans’, who question her coronation.
Well, it is a complex legal, moral question. She could become the CM, for the simple reason that majority of MLAs supported her. When Narasimha Rao assumed charge, he too was not an MP. On the other hand, Rajiv Gandhi, though was an MP was made Prime Minister within hours after the assassination of Indira. God knows whether there was a voting in the Congress Parliamentary Party. A letter from CWC was all he needed. Of course, then there was Giani Zail Singh. Even there are example of people with no prior political experience becoming rulers of states, and the glaring example is of Rabri Devi.
Sasikala is an unpopular leader (if at all she can be called a leader!) not only in the state, but even within the party cadre. How then, she could become the CM? The answer is simple. GREED!
As is with all parties, the mass leader and vote puller of AIADMK was the only person, who sadly is no more. As of now, there is no other person in AIADMK, who could ensure the party a win in the elections. On the other hand, the government has not even completed its first year and it is politically unwise to let the party split and go for elections. It is in the interest of individuals, read MLAs, majority of whom cannot win on their own to prevent the government from fall. Meanwhile, they may recover expenditure of last elections and earn funds for future ones. Had there been a single person in the party, who could channelize the ‘sympathy wave’ created for Amma, it would have been another thing.
Well, there is one person, who at least in part may channelize the sympathy for Amma, but that person is not in the party. Deepa Jayakumar, who bears a striking resemblance to her aunt, Jayakumar has already declared that she would not hesitate in claiming the political legacy of her aunt. Displaying true political manoeuvres, Sasikala didn’t even allow Deepa to visit the ailing late leader. However, it appears that her brother Deepak was easy to manage, as he participated in the last rites of Jayalalithaa. Expectedly, Deepa upped her ante against Sasikala and declared she may not be averse to don the political attire.
For the time being however, Sasikala may take control of the government. Paneerselvam resigned, despite his impressive approach to recent events in Tamilnadu, as he could not command the support of majority of party MLAs. If anyone thinks BJP may try to rock the boat, they are least interested. For one, as long as the government runs on majority, it would be unconstitutional for BJP to act against it. Second, but primary reason is that BJP gains nothing from immediate elections. It suits to BJP if AIADMK under Sasikala would cooperate with it in the parliament. In any case, like Congress, BJP too stands to gain anything from elections. What is the point of offering the state to Stalin, who is a known adversary to BJP?
Sasikala may run the government for the remaining tenure. However, in the last year, when MLAs expect to get elected for another term, she may have to face some kind of revolt. Though, she could successfully contain any public disagreement between various factions, it is a question of time for these differences to come to the fore, for only a leader with public support can control internal factionalism in all parties. The mystery that surrounded the death would linger on Sasikala’s political career and would continue to haunt her. Despite Dr. Beale’s public notification that Jayalalitha died of cardiac arrest, the behaviour of the Mannargudi Mafia in the two months before Jaya’s death remain to be answered. And Deepa would be questioning Sasikala of this in public and Sasikala has no answers except swearing her loyalty to late Amma.
If Sasikala governs the state and provides good administration, well, that is sufficient for the people to vote for her again. And the way she managed so far hints that she is not as novice as people are being told by the opposition, but a crude schemer of political coups. The way Sheela Balakrishnan, trusted officer of Jayalalitha was shown the door may put speculations about the way Chinnamma functions. During Jaya’s time, it was Sheela Balakrishnana, former cabinet secretary of Tamilnadu was at the centre of the government.
One year before elections, however Sasikala may broker a deal with Deepa and makes her the face of the party in the next elections. Mind you, this may happen only if Sasikala fails to deliver good governance. But, as the core administrative team of Jayalalitha that oversaw much acclaimed initiatives of recent past is already dismantled, one may expect an incoherent government in Tamilnadu. The control of Sasikala, her family, extended family, people from her caste and associated castes would be holding a strong hold in the government. As she would be facing Stalin, one of the formidable rivals in the state with vast political and administrative experience, it would be interesting how she would be handling relations with DMK.
As Thevars (Sasikala’s caste) is known to have strong adherence to local deities and practices, influence of Hindu seers on AIADMK is expected to grow. Maybe BJP could guide AIADMK through some indirect way. But, for sure, in the politically divided castes of Tamilnadu, Sasikala would be causing much resentment.
A PIL was filed as Supreme Court to prevent Sasikala from swearing in as CM, in lieu of the fact that Supreme Court’s decision to declare verdict in the Disproportionate Assets case against the combine of Jayalalithaa and Sasikala. It appears the sudden removal of Paneerselvam (whom BJP prefers to deal with) was only to provide a constitutional armour around Sasikala, in case the verdict turns to be negative. As of now, BJP is confused and Governor postponed his return to Chennai to conduct swearing in ceremony. But, neither the court, nor the BJP has any legal base to deny Sasikala from donning the cloak of constitutional authority that is rightfully belongs to a CM.
Politically, unless she is convicted by the Supreme Court, the move to delay her accession would create a sympathy for her. Knowing all this and to keep BJP in a tight spot, Sasikala is now ambitious to dive into the political sea before waters get more turbulent. If the court convicts her, again Paneeerselvam may get the chance to occupy the ‘ladies seat’ that the CM post of Tamilnadu has become (courtesy: WhatsApp).
Incidentally, Chinnamma denotes ‘Step Mother’ also, among its various usages. Maybe Sasikala would be the Step Mother to the people of Tamilnadu. And everyone knows how the average step mother treats her children.