Politics in Bihar with the advent of the 90s has affected the state economically, socially with law and order lodged in sort of an irreversible upheaval. Laloo Yadav ruled Patna with an iron fist to take it back in to the medieval ages. Rigging of elections became rampant, horse trading ruled the roost and kidnappings carved itself out as a profitable industry with no other sector ready to invest. RJD made Bihar its personally fledgling fiefdom with leaders donning the role of feudal war lords. The fodder scam was a symbol of nexus between criminals and politicians and slowly the tag of Jungle Raj was thrust upon it by the prevailing political circumstances. 2005 elections emerged as a battle of sorts and the decade long ruling monster was killed by a mandate bestowed upon two political parties.
BJP and JDU alliance as a part of the NDA were the oldest allies and seemingly unbreakable.
It was more than a decade long bonhomie that scripted NDA govts without any major conflict in the relations. JDU perhaps added that dilution factor in the right of the BJP that somewhere created stability in the erstwhile NDA. On the backdrop of a much needed change in Bihar, the coalition under the leadership of Nitish Kumar stormed into power displacing the prevalent Gunda Raj and the NDA found a foothold of much anticipated better governance in the Hindi heartland. The Nitish Govt with Sushil Modi as the deputy became engines of pushing Bihar out of a morass into making it formidably stable on the ground. Government was praised and in actuality after a decade, good governance superseded lawlessness.
The alliance completed a good first term and signaled subtly the end of Laloo’s political fortunes when they were re elected in 2010. The turnout and the outcome of the polls was overwhelmingly watershed. The NDA swept with 206 seats and RJD even failed to get those basic necessary required for acquiring oppositions official position. The combine almost ended RJD and made it into a history.
Even though cracks between BJP and its allies together constituting the NDA have been visible with respect to other parties, Nitish Kumar was to the BJP what Israel is to the United States. There has never been any bickering and even when in 2002 when other allies were pressuring the Vajpayee Govt to dismiss CM Modi, Nitish Kumar was tending towards a neutral approach. However, the elevation of CM Modi swiftly in BJP rank and file did create internal rumblings inside JDU as Lok Sabha polls of 2014 ascended in horizon. With prospects of Modi being the PM candidate of the BJP started doing the rounds, so did first cracks in the alliance in Bihar began to surface. Chants from the JDU camp about a consensus secular nominee were evoked and a break up after a much successful political marriage loomed in the vicinity of an election season. As Modi was elevated to be made as the election in charge, within a week Nitish Kumar severed his ties with the BJP and their role in the NDA came to an end.
There were practically three reasons why Nitish Kumar took this step. Kumar through his internal advisors within his party had aspired to become a PM nominee himself in the advent of a hung assembly and an ensuing political situation of being leader of the third front. Although he didn’t formally join it, the idea was to strive for it in a prevailing condition and in case NDA looked good to form a Govt and needs more numbers, that time a more consensus candidate can be discussed for his support. Secondly he thought of this as an opportunity to capture the political space of Bihar from its partner BJP to make it a unilateral JDU state. To assuage this strategy, he wooed minorities to play the secular card for opposing Modi. Thirdly Nitish Kumar belonged and affiliated himself to the Advani camp and somewhere the break point may have been nursed by those in the BJP who were ambitious enough to bring down chances of Modi being a PM.
From then JDU became one of the principal opponents of Modi govt after it assumed power in 2014. Although Kumar did resign after poor general elections, the state seemed to be going out of his grip with Jitaram Manjhi becoming something like a night watchman CM. As Bihar went to polls again, a grand coalition of sorts which encompassed so called secular entities including RJD was announced and it did manage to trounce the BJP and come to power.
Even if Nitish Kumar became CM again, this time the undercurrents of a Jungle Raj came to the forefront again with Laloo Yadav,s son becoming the deputy. Considering how ambitious Laloo has been, the chances of this alliance going the Kumaraswamy and JD (S) Yeddiruppa way as in Karnataka is surety yet just a matter of time. The final snapping point seems to have emerged when Siwan RJD MP Sahabuddin was released from the prison and Nitish Laloo slug-fest came out in the open. His bail was cancelled and supporters on both side proclaimed to teach each other a lesson. This fight over a tainted RJD MP was a subtle tug of war over the issue of goondanism in politics which RJD is accustomed to and Nitish Kumar is not.
So all the hoopla over back channel talks about re instating BJP JDU alliance in the NDA has muscle or its just a hearsay out of the recent friction between RJD and Nitish Kumar which is a part of any coalition alliance?
Firstly as mentioned above the primary nemesis of Kumar’s political fire fight has been the Jungle Raj of the RJD and so he is not comfortable working with them where ‘hooliganism’ is the crux of its policies.
The so called grand alliance was more of a relationship of convenience that was fructified to keep BJP out and stop Modi-Shah juggernaut in the name of political ego and brinkmanship. Nevertheless the shortsightedness of it curtailed the long term visibility of managing a tainted partner.
With many populist schemes and policies, Modi govt becoming increasingly popular, Nitish Kumar may have found the right time to seek rapprochement as when the alliance is re formed, it will give them much time to hone in before the elections in 2019. It will also help Nitish Kumar chart a better political future and seek ministerial aspirations in the center.
BJP on the other hand will get a better constituent in the NDA in the wake of uncertainty with respect to Akali Dal in upcoming elections in Punjab and the bullying tactics applied by the Shiv Sena over time. The issue of non acceptance on the part of Modi Shah will neutralize as the same duo will ferment JDU coming back and apart from this issue there was no mutual ill feeling between them at all. BJP will also get help with the support of JDU in its policies, a so called united opposition will lose one of its principal components and BJP will get to form a govt again in Patna that will further provide it impetus for 2019.
The steps needed to actualise the returning back of Nitish in the NDA fold may not be a hearsay but a serious possibility.
Nitish Kumar was one of those ardent supporters of the demonetisation policy unveiled by the centre and BJP on its side involved Sharad Yadav in a committee that is formed to commemorate a celebration that was meant for BJP stalwart Deendayal Upadhay. So as the talks of a back channel deliberation is doing the rounds, overtly both have warmed to each other to send a signal at corridors of power in Patna.
BJP JDU was much of a natural association which suited and conformed to each other’s political ideologies and jazz. Any alliance that prevents the rise of a Jungle raj may be welcome that pushed Bihar back in to the stone age. Nitish Kumar went berserk in 2013 and finally the harrowing experience of working together with Laloo just for the sake of posturing and convenience may have just outweighed his whatever differences he harboured with the Modi govt to put Bihar on the right track after many unnecessary back tracks.