If the Indian National Congress envisages the national political mainstream like a desert, Karnataka would seem like that tinge of relief and oasis. Ever since it was defeated in the national elections of 2014, the setbacks have continued. The party seems to have lost touch or sync with the political reality of the day and seemingly its base is shrinking with every state election. Although a resurgent BJP seems to have really captured its dreamy imagination of a Congress free country, the ground reality is nothing different but in actuality a fulfillment of the same. Even if the BJP juggernaut may have been ambushed by Delhi or Bihar, the Congress come back was nowhere in picture.
After getting confined to a few paltry states as a subsequence of monumental Assam drubbing, Karnataka is the only major political kingdom they have in their kitty. However as the state of Karnataka has evolved with respect to its political landscape over the years to get stable Governments, Congress secured its now lone power centre of sorts amidst a major political upheaval in then ruling BJP.
Karnataka as with every state post independence India was a Congress bastion which opened avenues for other parties in the 1990s. Later it became a triangular contest where two national parties (a weakened Congress and an emerging BJP) were locked in a tussle with a splinter of the magnum opus of Janata Dal (Janata Dal secular). After Congress lost power in Bengaluru, political arena was splintered into a hung assembly like situation. BJP in its quest for realizing their ambitioned foray of breaking deadlock of a powerless south embarked on an uneasy coalition with the JD(S). Similar to the govt they had formed with Mayawati in Lucknow as a part of an experiment, this ideologically immiscible combine failed to muster into an effective governance package. Kumaraswamy and HD Deve Gowda tried to move away from the established common minimum program and power sharing solution to consolidate their sway but BJP pulled the carpet and fresh elections were called for.
B.S Yeddyurappa turned out to be a mascot and with his ever enterprising campaigning at the backdrop of providing a mandate driven simple majority govt and backstabbing by Gowdas proved to be very effective. However there is no denying Yeddyurappa carved himself the same poster boy niche his counterparts in other BJP ruled states had created. As a matter of fact, he sculpted his political might the way it was demonstrated by mass leaders there like MP ship heralded by Shivraj Singh Chauhan or Chhattisgarh captained by Raman Singh or Modi transforming Gujarat. In a similar coherent way, Yeddyurappa captured the imagination of a mass leader and galvanized voters to steer BJP into their first government down south. Whilst BJP had grown at the backdrop of its Hindi heartland, this southern expedition was a coup of sorts. However unlike other states there was one problem here. Yeddyurappa and his family were accused of receiving 40 crores as kickbacks to their trust from affiliates of a steel company. He was forced to resign as the CM on account of illegal mining episode and a CBI case was slapped on him owing to a plea by an NGO which hampered his flourishing political edifice. At the particular moment three reasons pushed his case to ouster. Firstly media hounding over him was similar to the one that was witnessed during 2002 and Modi. Secondly this case was in the main stream at a time when BJP was grandstanding over mega scams like 2G and hence it had to take a moral high position. Thirdly, an ensuing factional rift may have further accelerated and nudged his exit.
Owing to pressure from the high command he had to unceremoniously quit his Chief Minister ship and a sulking Yeddyurappa left BJP and formed his own outfit. Named as Karnatak Janata Paksha or KJP; the party managed to demonstrate the effectiveness of his exit even if it won hardly few seats. However it secured 10% of the votes which may have spoiled BJP’s applecart to gift the government to the Congress. Although now he has merged his party with the BJP and elected as state president, the damaging aspect was done in eroding the first saffron govt in south.
The lessons learnt in 2013 assembly elections which hampered BJP have given them much needed political insight to join hands with him again. Although perhaps the BJP central command was in a precarious position then under pressure to take a high moral ground on corruption, nevertheless subsequently they could have brought him back to the party fold when he decided to quit and float his own party. Although it was a slightly different situation, the resemblance was apt in lieu with the attitude of the high command over Modi in 2002. Although there was a tremendous pressure and calls for his resignation, the party high command didn’t buckle to the multifactorial goading which made Gujarat a BJP citadel for over a decade.
The same pattern may have fructified and replicated here in Karnataka but Yeddyurappa was not well treated.
A special CBI court in Bengaluru now has acquitted former Karnataka chief minister and state BJP president B S Yeddyurappa and 12 others on charges of corruption, criminal conspiracy, cheating and forgery that sabotaged his political career at peak. This has given him that much needed relief to fire power himself into CM candidature for the 2018 assembly polls and reclaim the erstwhile southern bastion for the BJP. There are many reasons he is indispensable. He has a tremendous mass following and knows the politics and pocket boroughs of the state at the back of his hand. He is known to be popular amongst farmers and is credited to have initiated schemes like Bhagyalaxmi, various welfare programs and was a farmer loan waiver. His hold and popularity amongst the Lingayat community is well versed and this could sway the vote share to a decisive mandate. Since he already has been given the mantle and the podium, he has considerable time to make up his lost ground and take on the Congress. While the Backward Classes and other communities benefited under Siddaramaiah’s rule, the Lingayats feel abandoned. The Congress appointed upcoming Lingayat leaders to important posts, but they seem insignificant in comparison to Yeddyurappa.
The Congress govt in Bengaluru is exactly portraying itself like a care free fiefdom committing blunders to hand over issues on a platter. Yeddyurappa has a range of them to cater to. The crumbling infrastructure, power supply woes, scams, nepotism and lacklustre form of governance is already amongst options to choose from. Cauvery water dispute will add fuel to the mess of its burgeoning problems as Yeddyurappa can highlight this as a part of governments mismanagement. The overwhelming drought with farmer suicides and the controversial steel flyover in Bengaluru to decongest traffic but opposed by citizens forum and CMs recent foot in mouth comments about so called saffron terrorism further will be added to the list of woes they have to overcome along with ensuing anti incumbency.
Karnataka assembly polls scheduled in 2018 are an evenly poised watershed contest.
The Congress is keen to clutch its last slipping straw of power and the BJP will be in full reckoning to wrest the state gleefully away in its quest to complete its mission of a Congress free India.
The trump card was Yeddyurappa and with his clearing in the graft cases the groundswell and the surge along with him is expected to give a shot in the arm for a prospect of reinstating the first BJP govt down south.