Coalition era had two poles in the form of BJP and Congress with each catering to its own set of allies. The partners on the either side jumped fences depending upon who inched closer to power. However few were loyal and the association in a coalition became seemingly more emotional rather than just issue or power based support. BJP and Shiv Sena had formed such a robust bond over its ideological miscibility and similar political philosophy. The alliance bloomed and overcame all convoluted political twists and turns to battle rough waters and emerge as all weather friends. However when Pramod Mahajan suddenly passed away , BJP perhaps had lost its irreplaceable master strategist. However along with his loss, his death marked a subtle upheaval in Maharashtra politics whose manifestation is visible wholly at the present. Mahajan was known to be an architect of the BJP Shiv Sena relations and a sort of a smoothing relief between the two saffron partners. Any differences in between were ironed out effectively and alliance continued undeterred into its longevity.
When Shiv Sena Supremo Bal Thackeray passed away, the relations further plummeted. There has been growing talks about the cap sizing balance in the relations behind the doors. When Pratibha Patil was nominated to run for presidency by the UPA, Shiv Sena echoing the Marathi identity ideologue decided to extend support. This was the first major crack which created a fault line in their alliance and this refused to normalise but instead got aggravated into long term bitterness.
As Narendra Modi was steering his way into Prime Ministerial nomination sulking some factions of his own party, the Sena set a cat amongst pigeons by vouching for Sushma Swaraj which they claimed was their late supremo’s favourite for the post. And as 2014 elections approached, Sena seemed nervous over the prospects of Modi becoming the Prime Minster.
Negotiations for seat sharing prior to Assembly elections were battle of sorts. With leaders like Mahajan or Munde seeking reconciliation now dead, the other leaders owing to Modi wave and sensing a simple majority became tough with the Sena. Alliance was broken nevertheless they cobbled together to form a govt where BJP had emerged as the big brother in the alliance.
There are three reasons as to why the Sena seems uneasy with the alliance which from an ideological camaraderie has nose-dived into a mere sake of political convenience.
Sena is wary of the hard hitting tactics of the Modi Shah combine and they are ambitious. All these years a more moderate faction was at the helm in the BJP and at the same time Sena was seen as the dominant entity in the relationship. The emergence of a new leadership in the BJP turned the tide. Previously the approach was soft and cautious as BJP was spreading its wings in Maharashtra. Modi wave seemingly gave them this new found confidence to negotiate boldly with respect to seat sharing and even the CM position. The current crop of state leadership in Maharashtra too is not in favour of pampering the Sena.
Secondly Shiv Sena which feels it’s the natural inheritor of the state’s legacy could not fathom to play a second fiddle. Playing the role of a junior partner in the state government have imbibed fears into the Sena leadership over its prized power citadel in form of the BMC. That is not just the matter of prestige but even financial backbone and is the nerve centre of their power structure in the state. As PM Modi unveils new populist measures, the Sena is worried this may impact the BMC polls scheduled next year and even replicate state government’s formula of BJP holding sway over the Sena.
Thirdly much of the bargaining chip with respect to the centre is in doldrums. With simple majority, Sena as a part of the NDA is just a show piece and hence the habitual bickering it demonstrated during coalition era now has no takers and this is affecting Sena politically.
So when much is being said about the demonetisation drive of the PM, opposition is divided with some even supporting the Modi govt over this issue. Sena inspite of being an ally has taken a counter view and the statements like the PM needs to embark on a surgical strike on black money in Swiss banks instead is a sheer act of desperation on the part of the Sena. Pot-shots at regular intervals, questioning policies with lack of logic yet fiery statements and joining the opposition ranks to protest in futile has become Sena’s way of grabbing attention in futile from the BJP.
And the Sena may be justified to worry. In the recently concluded Municipal council and Nagar Panchayat polls, BJP has performed well and is seen as an indication of polices like demonetisation.
Seen as a mini assembly polls to test Maharashtra government’s standing after assuming power , the results have not just boosted the state parley but also is touted as an vindication of the demonetisation drive by the Modi Govt.
It is more sensible for the Sena to adhere into the NDA frame work rather than flowing away from the mainstream. With the popularity of the Modi Government up scaling with more reforms on the way, taking an extreme position may do them more harm than help. Sena may have been inspired by Nitish Kumar in Bihar but there wasn’t a BMC in Patna to lose. From fostering a strong tie up to bringing it down into a mere arrangement; the alliance is fishing in troubled waters. The outcome of the BMC polls (where they have announced they will fight together) will further map the development of their relationship which is deteriorating with time.