Of course, there is no doubt that BJP would try to gain political mileage from the demonetisation scheme. Demonetisation scheme may help BJP reaping political dividends, for two aspects. For one, this action was in line with the election promise of bringing black money back from foreign countries. To admit truth, Modi might have understood it may not be possible for him to break international treaties and get hold of the money that was stashed away. In the age of electronic transfers, it is very easy to shift money from one country to another country and all enquiry officers would do is globe-trot. Perhaps, this realisation had forced Modi to consider demonetisation as a measure to attack hoarders of black money.
Indian people have a tendency to pretend moral superiority. Though 99% of real estate transactions have some black component in the trade off, from being exposed to the socialist lectures on ‘the rich hoard black money’ makes them think that cash hoarding is an immoral act, especially against the nation. Still, they do and pacify their minds that they are not the only one doing this wrong thing. Moreover, the psyche of identifying with the ‘poor’ makes the masses abhor the rich. Though everyone wanted to become rich, they don’t consider themselves rich unless they join the league of Ambanis.
Narendra Modi has rightly exploited the weak point in the thinking of the masses. There may be many people who would be losing money, yet they are happy that others have lost more. Typical Indian mentality!
So, in theory, Narendra Modi should gain politically and win all state elections till 2019 and he shall win general elections in 2019. Only, the ride may not be so smooth.
Considering the advantageous situation first, BJP’s chances in Uttar Pradesh would increase by this action. With the ruling Samajwadi Pariwar is embroiled in an internal war, main fight may perhaps between BSP and BJP. And the demonetisation must have effectively erased the money bags of BSP. Of course, money bags of BJP also might have eroded, but they got the good will generated by demonetisation. While SP’s internal conflict increased the aura of chief minister Akhilesh Yadav, Congress is the party that is fully confused between Prashant Kishor, Shiela Dixit and Priyanka Gandhi, who was unwilling even to campaign. Better we not talk about Rahul Gandhi, his supporters who are against regular party’s wheeler-dealers. Though BSP was trying to take on SP based on better track record on Law and Order, BSP has its own set of problems. Behenji shall rely solely on her Dalit vote bank, for other communities of UP are not fully willing to support her.
Given these conditions, BJP should be having a smooth sail in UP, except for the fact that internal bickering in BJP is also not too trivial to ignore. Before elections, all parties would declare chief minister candidates and try to put pressure on BJP, but BJP cannot declare a single candidate. Perhaps, Modi may be ruing about why he did not split UP into four states, immediately after assuming office. Though the denomination issue would help gravitating voters to BJP, post winning BJP may face a herculean task in selecting its chief minister.
Though the demonetisation scheme was much lauded across the nation, one state where BJP may feel pain is Gujarat. In the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Patel community is at loggerheads with BJP. Led by Hardik Patel, the primarily business community now demands reservation in government jobs and educational institutions. It takes no great investigation to recognise how much money the community must have lost collectively, in the demonetisation scheme. Perhaps, some of the elders may be considering that siding with Hardik Patel had earned them the wrath of Modi. Though Congress largely depends on the weakness of BJP’s organisation to win the elections, recent entry of AAP would make it interesting. With their illogical memes and promising impossible things, Arvind surely would add some spice to the otherwise soft Dhokla, Gujarat elections have been. Amit Shah might have experience in the state elections, but he may need to concentrate solely on Gujarat to win state elections. Though winning UP gives BJP much needed stability in the Hindi heartland, losing Gujarat means losing credibility for the Prime Minister and may cast shadow on the national canvas during next general elections. So, Amit Shah may be present in Gujarat for six months at least before state elections.
Punjab elections have already turned into a grand circus. If Sidhu and Arvind Kejriwal are providing much needed entertainment on one side, Captain and Badal family play the role of wrestlers. Not seen in the picture is of course, BJP. Though there may not be much to gain for BJP from the win in Punjab, as the state would eventually be ruled by Badals, even if the coalition wins, BJP may opt out of the coalition and fight on its own. That way, perhaps BJP would retain its core group of voters. In Punjab, demonetisation may not be a priority issue for the state is already involved in many other bigger issues.
Speaking of next general elections, though the salaried community may largely support BJP, traders – big and small both, may not vote for the party.
If one sees the investment pattern, in the last two years, it is government investment on infrastructure projects that was largely behind the growth. As one used machinery dealer put it, Congress has a ‘Live and Let Live’ policy. Contrary to this is Modi’s ‘Na Khaaonga, Na Khaanedoonga’ policy. And for people who were comfortable in living by paying bribes, the sudden enforcement of moral guidelines are as bad as restrictions.
Long ago, when NT Rama Rao became chief minister, continuing his ideological attitude of ‘mass socialist hero’ image, he wanted all tradesmen to pay sales tax. There were teams from the sales tax department present at local merchants, counting daily business volume to average out annual tax liability. In protest, traders have shut down the shops in Vijayawada. Of course, the ever corrupt Congress called the action by Rama Rao, much like recent comment on demonetisation – draconian. Faced with opposition from all sides, NTR had to give up finally.
Even Narendra Modi now wanted to boost the collection of sales tax and thus bring many people under the tax umbrella. Though this would lead to reduction of taxes from current levels, where in only corporates and salaried sections are contributing, tradesmen will not accept to enter the tax gambit. Whether Modi and his team would consider expanding tax payer base by tackling the sales tax issue would be an interesting thing to observe. Even if he wanted to, Modi shall wait till next financial year, by when the ripples of demonetisation would subside.
Though there is not much opposition for BJP at national level, and Rahul Gandhi working hard for BJP, one may think BJP’s win in 2019 is easy. It is worth remember the situation in India in 2004, when BJP lost, despite a good performance by the then Vajpayee government. For that matter, the best of all prime ministers, PV Narasimha Rao could not win elections in ’96, though his win could have changed the course of our nation. So, Indians are equally capable of taking wrong decisions at right times. Even Churchill, who won the war for Britain could not win elections for his party. Yet, people remember Churchill more than Atlee.
Though good for the nation, these actions on the economic front would alienate Narendra Modi from much of his regular voter base. So, will 2019 mark end of Narendra Modi? Perhaps not. He may be rescued by the generals in Pakistan. Even if Trump proves ten percent of what he claimed to be, Pakistan would be facing tougher challenges on international and terror front. If America stops the classification of good and bad Taliban, immediate repercussions would be felt in Rawalpindi. Pakistan would be sliding into much debt in the coming two years. To cover its failure on economic front, they may start adventures at the LoC. And it would be much needed shot in arms for Narendra Modi and Manohar Parrikar. Notwithstanding its nuclear aggressions, Pakistan would lose another war in the second half of 2018.
Perhaps, this decisive win may catapult Narendra Modi back to the scheme of things and propel him to the top, once again. If he wins another term, he would be the first prime minister to have two terms, out of congress fold. If he wins in 2019, it may so happen, a slew of reforms would be unleashed immediately after the win, as he may not need time to settle down, as was the case in 2014.cti