Arvind Kejriwal is going to dump Delhi again in the first half of 2017, or possibly, before.
Now, I cannot afford sources everywhere like Kejriwal, nor this is any speculation, but an analysis that comes from an observation of almost half a decade in which I have witnessed the theatrics of Kejriwal at various stages. Imagine giving an H.C. Verma authored Physics book to a DJ in Hauz Khas Village; that is exactly what happened with Kejriwal in 2015. He fell for the cover of the book, and did all he could to have it, but once he had it, it made absolutely no sense to him.
AAP and their goons do not understand politics. This can be attributed to their performance in 2014, in which anyone and everyone willing to offer a favorable comparison for AAP against Modi, were offered a ticket. I still can’t let go of the disturbing scenes when Gul Panag was running from home to home in my city, begging for votes, and yelling for a revolution against a party that wasn’t even in power. What they understand is activism
If Arundhati Roy wrote ‘The God of Small Minded Thugs’, Kejriwal would feature in it as the holy figure. AAP knows how to yell, how to create chaos, how to curse, how to scrutinise without offering any solution, as it would require the usage of a brain.
Today, Delhi is suffering from a plague of poor governance. People are dying each day from diseases that were otherwise unheard of in the city from a long time. The infrastructure is in shambles (well, not the digital one, you know; 2 words, ‘Ration Card’).
Recently, a video went viral where a woman was seen taking to the streets amidst a traffic jam caused by the protesting AAP, or as we may call them PAAP. The roads are in dire need of repairs, power cuts were abundant in the season that passed, and who can forget that painful image where women were seen combatting for a bucket of water.
So, what does the current scenario mean for the Delhi Population? If social media is any proof, the people are angry, and the last time people were angry like this, an established political family was reduced to shambles and was left fighting for its own existence. While the defeated leader does well down south, helping people as she would like to have in Delhi, the people here continue to suffer day and night
If Delhi were to go to elections today, Kejriwal wouldn’t be able to win even half of the seats, forget 67. The voters still rallying behind him are the ones he pays for, from the slums. Free stuff for illegal occupancy results in a vote bank, who knew?
Lately, AAP has had a significant reduction in its interest for Delhi. The programs and schemes introduced earlier haven’t yielded much, and there has been nothing new for the upcoming winters.
Compared to the last year, Kejriwal has been quite static in terms of Delhi, and this is the image, that of a weak CM, he cannot afford to have with just 18 months to go before the country starts preparing for the 2019 National Elections. AAP, irrespective of their jailed MLAs, would look to create a dent in the vote share. However, they would need to ride high on a certain momentum for that, which is going to come from the 2017 State Elections.
Unfortunately, India doesn’t vote on merit, but on memory and perception. In 2014, AAP and Kejriwal weren’t accepted as a national party or figure, but with upcoming elections in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Goa, Uttarakhand, and Manipur, they would look for an opportunity to change all this. Memory and perception are going to be created by pointless theatrics (which, for the sake of our women, I hope, are less sexual) and blaming the PM for almost everything. No rocket science in this, the AAP is going to do all it takes to be in the news.
AAP and Kejriwal are not necessarily seeking a victory in states except Punjab and Goa, because their win lies in being a speed-breaker, a blockade, for the BJP. They can ally with Congress, with Mamata Banerjee, with Laloo Prasad Yadav, as evident, and they won’t shy away from playing the second fiddle to anyone who strives to have a new PM in 2019.
So, what does AAP has to gain from the state elections in 2017.
Starting with Manipur, around which AAP is yet to create any fuss. With their digital section of AAP Manipur still coming to existence, one can assume that AAP would be looking to seek a presence in the North-East by building one here. They could raise the issue of immigrants, of the neglect that the region has had to face in the past, but most importantly, this could be the first step for Kejriwal to project himself as a leader in the North-East.
Given his expertise with politics of divide and rule and the area’s weak immunity to it, one can only guess the consequences.
Uttar Pradesh, where not even Kejriwal can think to win, but one can be assured that the issue of beef and Kashmir would be raised to divert the Muslim vote bank away from developmental agendas of the BJP.
There would be theatrics in play to pull the Dalit vote bank away from them too. The vote bank might be diverted to any state party, but Kejriwal, with his media presence, is going to ensure some flack for the BJP. As a leading political figure from the state told me, if BJP wins UP in 2017, they are destined to win India in 2019, and that won’t figure well with AAP.
Goa, where Kejriwal has already started his drama. One can attribute AAP’s interest in Goa to the scandalised life their goons have got used to. However, with a small but significant presence in Goa as of now, Kejriwal would be aiming to displace the BJP, even if it means having the ‘old dog with new look’ and a ‘Category 5 Moron’ by his side. The objective would be to displace BJP, nothing else, or best, reducing the vote share.
Uttarakhand, which BJP tried hard to pocket is going to be in AAP’s radar. Already, there have been numerous press conferences, each more forgettable than the last, and with AAP relying only on Kejriwal to boost their chances, it remains to be seen who would be left with the governance of Delhi.
Finally, Punjab, where AAP stands a slight probability of winning. I attributed this possibility to the nature of the Punjabis in one of my earlier articles. However, with the curious case of 63 imaginary CDs, and the shameless cases of molestation coming to light, AAP may witness its own faltering in the state.
BJP doesn’t have any contender in the state as of now, and AAP would be looking to pocket this state, even if it requires disrespecting the Holy Guru Granth Sahib.
Interestingly, Kejriwal hasn’t projected any CM candidate for Goa or Punjab. Yes, even BJP follows a similar strategy, but they have a pool of veteran politicians to turn to. Another critical aspect is that Kejriwal won’t allow any face to have powers that rival his in the same party. Tomorrow, hypothetically, if AAP wins any of the states, it will have a figure with more powers and freedom than Kejriwal in Delhi, and most importantly, a clean slate. This could be a direct threat to Kejriwal’s 2019 dreams as there have been many instances where his leadership has been questioned.
Kejriwal, as a CM in Delhi, and some XYZ figure, as an AAP CM in Punjab, UP, Manipur, Uttarakhand, and Goa, is something the former can never allow, for we have seen ample exits from the party when the former was questioned.
Alongside, after the debacle of Delhi, Kejriwal is craving for a clean slate. His best chances are in Punjab, and if he doesn’t win here, he is all set to lose Delhi in the future.
Kejriwal’s dream run in Delhi has come to an end, and now, his only hope lies in winning Punjab and establishing the presence in the other 4 states, in order to remain of some value before the country moves towards 2019 elections.
However, he cannot this sitting in Delhi. Even the mightiest rulers in Indian history had to move out of the comfort of Delhi to win hearts across the nation; compared to some greats, Kejriwal is just a sugar-coated political rat. Dumping Delhi won’t be a problem. With MLAs heading to the jail one after the other, AAP won’t shy away from blaming Modi or the Governor through shallow theatrics for simply ditching the population of Delhi for the second time. With his current image in Delhi, Kejriwal cannot woo voters in any of the 5 states.
Either they give up everything to win something, or they keep that little something to win nothing.
Given how things are all around, Kejriwal is in one huge mess.
Arvind Kejriwal is going to dump Delhi again in the first half of 2017, or possibly, before.
Now, I cannot afford sources everywhere like Kejriwal, nor this is any speculation, but an analysis that comes from an observation of almost half a decade in which I have witnessed the theatrics of Kejriwal at various stages. Imagine giving an H.C. Verma authored Physics book to a DJ in Hauz Khas Village; that is exactly what happened with Kejriwal in 2015. He fell for the cover of the book, and did all he could to have it, but once he had it, it made absolutely no sense to him.
AAP and their goons do not understand politics. This can be attributed to their performance in 2014, in which anyone and everyone willing to offer a favorable comparison for AAP against Modi, were offered a ticket. I still can’t let go of the disturbing scenes when Gul Panag was running from home to home in my city, begging for votes, and yelling for a revolution against a party that wasn’t even in power. What they understand is activism
If Arundhati Roy wrote ‘The God of Small Minded Thugs’, Kejriwal would feature in it as the holy figure. AAP knows how to yell, how to create chaos, how to curse, how to scrutinise without offering any solution, as it would require the usage of a brain.
Today, Delhi is suffering from a plague of poor governance. People are dying each day from diseases that were otherwise unheard of in the city from a long time. The infrastructure is in shambles (well, not the digital one, you know; 2 words, ‘Ration Card’).
Recently, a video went viral where a woman was seen taking to the streets amidst a traffic jam caused by the protesting AAP, or as we may call them PAAP. The roads are in dire need of repairs, power cuts were abundant in the season that passed, and who can forget that painful image where women were seen combatting for a bucket of water.
So, what does the current scenario mean for the Delhi Population? If social media is any proof, the people are angry, and the last time people were angry like this, an established political family was reduced to shambles and was left fighting for its own existence. While the defeated leader does well down south, helping people as she would like to have in Delhi, the people here continue to suffer day and night
If Delhi were to go to elections today, Kejriwal wouldn’t be able to win even half of the seats, forget 67. The voters still rallying behind him are the ones he pays for, from the slums. Free stuff for illegal occupancy results in a vote bank, who knew?
Lately, AAP has had a significant reduction in its interest for Delhi. The programs and schemes introduced earlier haven’t yielded much, and there has been nothing new for the upcoming winters.
Compared to the last year, Kejriwal has been quite static in terms of Delhi, and this is the image, that of a weak CM, he cannot afford to have with just 18 months to go before the country starts preparing for the 2019 National Elections. AAP, irrespective of their jailed MLAs, would look to create a dent in the vote share. However, they would need to ride high on a certain momentum for that, which is going to come from the 2017 State Elections.
Unfortunately, India doesn’t vote on merit, but on memory and perception. In 2014, AAP and Kejriwal weren’t accepted as a national party or figure, but with upcoming elections in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Goa, Uttarakhand, and Manipur, they would look for an opportunity to change all this. Memory and perception are going to be created by pointless theatrics (which, for the sake of our women, I hope, are less sexual) and blaming the PM for almost everything. No rocket science in this, the AAP is going to do all it takes to be in the news.
AAP and Kejriwal are not necessarily seeking a victory in states except Punjab and Goa, because their win lies in being a speed-breaker, a blockade, for the BJP. They can ally with Congress, with Mamata Banerjee, with Laloo Prasad Yadav, as evident, and they won’t shy away from playing the second fiddle to anyone who strives to have a new PM in 2019.
So, what does AAP has to gain from the state elections in 2017.
Starting with Manipur, around which AAP is yet to create any fuss. With their digital section of AAP Manipur still coming to existence, one can assume that AAP would be looking to seek a presence in the North-East by building one here. They could raise the issue of immigrants, of the neglect that the region has had to face in the past, but most importantly, this could be the first step for Kejriwal to project himself as a leader in the North-East.
Given his expertise with politics of divide and rule and the area’s weak immunity to it, one can only guess the consequences.
Uttar Pradesh, where not even Kejriwal can think to win, but one can be assured that the issue of beef and Kashmir would be raised to divert the Muslim vote bank away from developmental agendas of the BJP.
There would be theatrics in play to pull the Dalit vote bank away from them too. The vote bank might be diverted to any state party, but Kejriwal, with his media presence, is going to ensure some flack for the BJP. As a leading political figure from the state told me, if BJP wins UP in 2017, they are destined to win India in 2019, and that won’t figure well with AAP.
Goa, where Kejriwal has already started his drama. One can attribute AAP’s interest in Goa to the scandalised life their goons have got used to. However, with a small but significant presence in Goa as of now, Kejriwal would be aiming to displace the BJP, even if it means having the ‘old dog with new look’ and a ‘Category 5 Moron’ by his side. The objective would be to displace BJP, nothing else, or best, reducing the vote share.
Uttarakhand, which BJP tried hard to pocket is going to be in AAP’s radar. Already, there have been numerous press conferences, each more forgettable than the last, and with AAP relying only on Kejriwal to boost their chances, it remains to be seen who would be left with the governance of Delhi.
Finally, Punjab, where AAP stands a slight probability of winning. I attributed this possibility to the nature of the Punjabis in one of my earlier articles. However, with the curious case of 63 imaginary CDs, and the shameless cases of molestation coming to light, AAP may witness its own faltering in the state.
BJP doesn’t have any contender in the state as of now, and AAP would be looking to pocket this state, even if it requires disrespecting the Holy Guru Granth Sahib.
Interestingly, Kejriwal hasn’t projected any CM candidate for Goa or Punjab. Yes, even BJP follows a similar strategy, but they have a pool of veteran politicians to turn to. Another critical aspect is that Kejriwal won’t allow any face to have powers that rival his in the same party. Tomorrow, hypothetically, if AAP wins any of the states, it will have a figure with more powers and freedom than Kejriwal in Delhi, and most importantly, a clean slate. This could be a direct threat to Kejriwal’s 2019 dreams as there have been many instances where his leadership has been questioned.
Kejriwal, as a CM in Delhi, and some XYZ figure, as an AAP CM in Punjab, UP, Manipur, Uttarakhand, and Goa, is something the former can never allow, for we have seen ample exits from the party when the former was questioned.
Alongside, after the debacle of Delhi, Kejriwal is craving for a clean slate. His best chances are in Punjab, and if he doesn’t win here, he is all set to lose Delhi in the future.
Kejriwal’s dream run in Delhi has come to an end, and now, his only hope lies in winning Punjab and establishing the presence in the other 4 states, in order to remain of some value before the country moves towards 2019 elections.
However, he cannot this sitting in Delhi. Even the mightiest rulers in Indian history had to move out of the comfort of Delhi to win hearts across the nation; compared to some greats, Kejriwal is just a sugar-coated political rat. Dumping Delhi won’t be a problem. With MLAs heading to the jail one after the other, AAP won’t shy away from blaming Modi or the Governor through shallow theatrics for simply ditching the population of Delhi for the second time. With his current image in Delhi, Kejriwal cannot woo voters in any of the 5 states.
Either they give up everything to win something, or they keep that little something to win nothing.
Given how things are all around, Kejriwal is in one huge mess.