78 years old Sheila Dikshit has been announced as the UP CM candidate for 2017 assembly polls. Born in a Brahmin family in Punjab, Mrs. Dikshit lost badly in 2013 Delhi state assembly polls and couldn’t even save her own seat despite being the CM of the region for three consecutive terms.
Her downfall began soon after the first serious charges of corruption levied against her regarding misuse of 3.5 Cr rupees allocated by Central Government. However this proved to be the first of many corruption charges that she faced before being unceremoniously thrown out of her position by electoral mass of Delhi.
Sheila Dikshit was married to son of Congress stalwart Uma Shankar Dikshit who shared a close relationship with Nehru family and also became a central minister. It is this connection that makes Mrs. Sheila Dikshit call herself as the ‘Bahu of UP’.
What Made Congress Choose Sheila Dikshit over others?
Religion and caste play an important role in UP elections. Congress, with no credible record of development to show and marred by mountainous charges of corruption is relying solely on caste equation to grab some seats and play spoilers on others.
This is clearly evident with the announcements of state party functionaries in the last few days. Raj Babbar has been made the president of UP Congress Committee. Babbar belongs to Sunar community which is listed as an OBC community in western Uttar Pradesh. Nevertheless he faced a massive defeat while contesting 2014 LS polls against VK Singh in Ghaziabad. However fact that the person who himself managed to get 1,91,222 votes as against Singh’s 7,58,482, is somehow deemed fit to lead the party in state only shows the drastic lack of capable people in the party.
Another promotion in Congress has come in form of Imran Masood, the controversial hate monger from Saharanpur in Western UP who has been elevated to the position of Vice-president in an attempt to woo Muslim voters.
Self-proclaimed flag bearer of non-divisive politics Congress, is entirely depending upon their old formula of divide and rule by attempting to segregate Muslim-Brahmin and OBC votes.
However with a no-achievement tested failure as State President, a tainted criminal as his deputy and a humiliated corrupt leader as its face, Congress party’s chances of doing some magic in UP are as gleam as Samajwadi Party’s probability of getting away from dynasty rule.
What it means for BJP?
The BJP’s winning equation usually constitutes of upper caste, a section of OBC’s and Dalits.
Dalits form close to 21% population in Uttar Pradesh. By and large Dalit voters were seen as core supporters of Mayawati led BSP, however this myth was broken in consecutive elections of 2012 UP assembly polls and 2014 Loksabha elections. In 2012 Dalit support for BSP went down by 23% and contributed to a huge victory of SP candidates in most sub-regions.
In 2014 LS election Jatav (Mayawati’s own caste) support for BSP declined by 16% and overall Dalit support was down by 35% points.
Another 18% vote share belongs to Muslim community. The community is disenchanted by SP and has a reputation of voting in en-masse. BJP looks forward to tapping this vote base through its inclusive politics of development. Thumping victory of Assam where Muslims formed 34% of population is seen as an encouraging example.
Nevertheless around 13% Brahmins may hold the key to an electoral shift in Uttar Pradesh. The community seems to be confused for now and is widely known in UP for doing tactical voting. Announcement of a Brahmin face as CM candidate in form of Sheila Dikshit by Congress might look like a master-stroke to many but her image of being an outsider may not work in party’s favour. She might be a daughter-in-law of UP but apart from exchanging garlands on this land, her connection is extremely limited.
India’s grand old party Congress has now been out of power in Uttar Pradesh for 27 years and with another five on the cards, these attempts of polarization seem only like a desperate move where Congress’s masks of hypocrisy are falling off and edge-less daggers are being drawn with a hope of honourable defeat.