The recent coup- or whatever it was- in Turkey left a distinctly unpleasant smell in one’s nostrils. Mostly because it reminded many of this small fire that had broken out at the Reichstag in Berlin a few decades ago. Wise investors are also buying up cutlery stocks as quick as they can- foreseeing a possible demand for long knives in the near future- but enough ink has been spilt discussing Turkey in these past few days. Instead we are going to talk about a place very near Turkey- and yet so so far away.
The World is very much like a living creature. And like a living creature, it has arteries and veins. Cutting any one of them can have enormous repercussions.
One of the most important of these veins is the Bab el Mandab– the Gate of Tears- the strait that joins the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. This route has served as the principal gateway between Asia and Europe for the better part of 3000 years- and even now is arguably the most important waterway in the World after the Straits of Malacca. The most inconvenient wars going on at present- ones that are hardly being mentioned in World media for reasons I will discuss later- are those in Western Yemen and Southern Sudan. At the heart of both, lies the struggle for the control of this most vital waterway.
These wars feature in no primetime slots. They attract little public discussion in the West- let alone in India. They figure in few strategic discussions and fewer opinion pieces. This is despite the fact that in case of Yemen alone:-
- Control of Western Yemen gives the victor the most defensible positions in the Arab peninsula- from which they can strike out at will as west as Ethiopia and as east as the UAE.
- Control of Western Yemen allows the victor to block the Bab-el-Mandab straits- through which 15% of the Global oil trade passes every day.
- Control of Western Yemen gives the victors access to some of the finest agricultural land in the Arab peninsula.
This is the same case with the one in Southern Sudan as well- despite the fact that:-
- South Sudan holds the third largest proven oil reserves in Africa- and possibly the single largest in total.
- South Sudan controls the entire flow of the Nile and the most direct access between Black Africa and the Arab World- as well as the rest of the World.
- Most importantly- the people of South Sudan were the target of a decades-long genocidal campaign which, as is usual, went mostly unnoticed in the rest of the World as well.
The Yemeni are Semites- and look much like us people from India, ranging from dark brown to pale white. The South Sudanese are Blacks. The former are mostly Shia. The latter, Sunni. The former have an established history as a nation-state dating back millennia. The latter got independence barely a decade ago. The former have little oil. The latter, tons of it. So- what’s common to them?
At present, a massive attempt is ongoing to prepare the Saudi Kingdom for an oil-less future when alliances and ideology would count for more than naked financial power. No one knows exactly how much oil is left in Saudi Arabia but given the development of fracking and renewables- as well as the resilience of these technologies during the recent low crude oil rates- there’s a huge chance that the nadir of Aramco Light Crude is close. In this case- about a year ago, the Saudis had pulled off the greatest diplomatic coup the Arab World had seen since the Baathist Renaissance in the 50s. The Baathists are long gone now- and their ideals of Socialism, Secularism, and Arab Nationalism with them- but the Saudis did seem to have read up on their history.
Sudan was convinced to break its traditionally strong ties with Teheran in exchange for over $1 billion of Saudi investment- and the backing of NATO, important because the government of Sudan has been often accused of war crimes by international observers. Qatar- a nominal Iranian ally- joined the Saudi alliance. So did Oman, Turkey, Pakistan, almost all major Sunni powers. NATO – as usual- remained as complaint and obliging to see the Saudis dominant over half the World as usual. And why was this alliance- the strongest force seen in the Islamic World since the fall of the Ottoman Empire- created?
Control over Yemen, then South Sudan- and thus the Bab el Mandab.
I have already listed multiple reasons why such an economic move might be beneficial for Saudi Arabia- but there is no need to fixate on possibilities. The Saudis have been investing publicly in such economic considerations as well. Until recently, the region was supposed to be the centre of one of the largest engineering projects ever attempted- the so-called Bridge of the Horns, to be built at a cost of $20 billion by the Bin Laden Group and creating an urban ecosystem of nearly 10 million people over Yemen and Djibouti. The total trade possibilities easily exceed $100 billion annually- and would also serve to provide Saudis a direct route from Jeddah to Port Sudan to Juba- and then the African heartland. In one shot, the Saudis have the potential to replace France and China as the primary trade power in the heart of Africa.
So what went wrong?
Simply out- the great Saudi coalition, the mightiest military-political Islamic alliance seen in almost a century- lost.
The Yemeni War hasn’t ended- but it is clear that the ill-armed, poorly- organized Houthis have not only holding their own against the far superior invading forces of the Alliance, but also defeating them and pushing them back. Further, military commitment has been patchy- with Pakistan opting to stay out of active war altogether. Even in South Sudan, things have been bad. Factionalism might’ve weakened the country- but it has also kept them relatively independent. Further, the South Sudanese have demonstrated a very courageous policy in regards to oil. When the Sudanese started overcharging them for refining their produce, the latter simply stopped producing oil.
All this might’ve been vexing to the Saudis indeed- since over the past year, a major component of their efforts have been directed at arguably the most successful Middle Eastern army in recent years- the Kurdis.
Who just so happen to be trying for independence from Turkey and Iran.
In hindsight, it is not unexpected for the Saudis to ditch the Turks for the Kurdis. Turkey’s economy is one of the best performing in the World right now. It is also one of the most fragile. Like the case of China I wrote about earlier- the Turkish economy is a giant bubble. A few months ago, Moody’s wrote: – The Turkish banking sector’s dependency on external wholesale markets could contribute to higher funding costs in light of a weaker international investor confidence. Banks also face challenges from a slower economic growth, increasing dollarization of liabilities and volatile sentiment towards emerging markets, all of which keeps the banking system on a negative outlook.’
The Turkish economy runs almost entirely on external borrowings- with account deficits only kept at bay with heavy influxes of European and Saudi money. Consumer debt is heavy- but given the stagnant Turkish population, expected future demand and productivity is low. Given that the Saudi Arabia is aging as well (their population growth rate is only slightly above replacement level; only a bit higher than Iran’s), the only Middle Eastern population growing fast enough to guarantee a strong market for the Saudi dream of an oil-less economy are the Kurdis.
In other news, the Iranians destroyed yet another ‘terrorist group’ on the Turkish border on 21st July. No one thinks this will be the last one.
When the Turkish bubble bursts- and the chances of that are high, given the added strain from loss of tourism revenues following the coup and growing right-wing nationalism among the Europeans- what will result is not a mellowing of tensions but a state of escalating violence between the Turks and the Kurdis. This will, naturally, spill over into Iran. One might wonder how long it would take for the mighty Alliance to then change its target from Yemen to Iran. The Iranians are fewer in number and grossly under-equipped and so, the most rational scenario for Teheran would be for a stray oil tanker to- stop- in the middle of the Bab el Mandab. Or the Persian Gulf. Goodbye Oil transportation. Goodbye, global economy.
BTW- in the past 3 years, the Pakistanis have arguably clashed with the Iranians as many times as with us. So, no one can rule out a nuclear card in the conflict as well. No one actually knows how bad a modern Nuke would be; the old ones were bad enough- but there are views that sufficiently powerful ones might even destroy global atmospheric trends. If the Pakistanis start losing- and their war record is horrible, the nukes might start flying. Goodbye Jet Stream. Goodbye Monsoons.
So, what role can India play in this region to defend her interests?
At present and given the current situation, very little.
Given we can barely do anything in Kashmir- let alone Aden- today, the conservative option is the best one. India must ensure that its Crude oil imports- about 75% of total demand- are as independent of travel through potential ‘veins’ as possible. Unfortunately this would mean reducing all imports from Saudi Arabian ports- which is almost impossible. So what options remain? Russian Crude- brought over from East Asia. Oman- provided it stays neutral during conflict. Venezuela- especially since they’re desperate now; their State Oil firms are moribund- but an offer to restore production in exchange for future supplies will benefit us in the long run.
But this is not to mean that India cannot take back the Straits. Yes- ‘take back’. The name of the gateway to the Red Sea- the Socotra archipelago– is of Sanskrit origin.
The Child’s War- which had ended with the utter annihilation of English forces- was sparked off by English pirates (or Captains of the Royal Navy; thus proving that the easiest way to be good is to be victorious) targeting India n shipping off Yemen. The Maratha navy was the most powerful force on the Arabian Sea for the better part of two centuries.
As I have already said- Yemen and South Sudan represent huge opportunities in this regard. India ’s soft power in the region is enormous- thanks to Bollywood- and fortunately, India enjoys good relations with both Sunni and Shia powers. Gaining access to South Sudanese oil- and thus, future investment possibilities- won’t be a cakewalk- but at least India doesn’t risk getting into war over it. A pipeline through Kenya and Uganda would cost far, far more than the existing ones in Sudan- but will also allow India to avoid any entanglements in the Persian Gulf region altogether. The only thing to do would be to deal with the Chinese investors already in the region.
And of course- praying that the nukes don’t start flying.