We had Assam Elections figured out correctly before any Exit Polls.
Assam 2016 Results: Fates Sealed
Assam 2016 Results – The electoral jamboree in Assam has come to an end. The fate of candidates such as Tarun Gogoi, Sarbananda Sonowal, Himanta Biswa Sarma, Badruddin Ajmal, Prafulla Kumar Mahanta, Hagrama Mohilary and many others has been sealed in the EVMs. The two phases of polling in Assam saw an enthusiastic turnout of 78%, while the second phase saw a record turnout of 82%. The high turnout in the polls has set the rumour mill ticking on the decision of the Assamese electorates. The main contenders in the elections this time were Congress led by their old war horse, Tarun Gogoi, an ebullient BJP led by Union Minister Sarbananda Sonowal and All India Democratic United Front led by perfume baron, Badruddin Ajmal. The BJP, apparently learning from its past mistakes, put in place an alliance with the influential Bodoland People’s Front and the Asom Gana Parishad. It has also tried to fight the elections on local issues and has moved away from its strategy of putting Modi at the forefront. The Congress and the AIDUF, in spite of earlier talks of a pre poll alliance, contested elections separately.
The last state elections in Assam, held in 2011, had thrown up the following results-
Indian National Congress- 79- 39.4%
All India Democratic United Front- 18-12.6%
Bodoland People’s Front-12-6.1%
Asom Gana Parsihad-9-16.3%
Bhartiya Janata Party-5-11.5%
Assam 2016 Results: The Modi Wave in 2014
Assam had historically been a Congress bastion, except in the years when the Asom Gana Parishad, under its charismatic leader, Prafulla Kumar Mahanta, dwarfed the Congress. The AGP has formed the government in Assam on two occasions, in 1985, at the height of the Assam movement and in 1996. However, the influence of the party has, for several years now been on the wane. The vote share held by the AGP has declined from 29.7% in 1996 to 16.3% in 2011. The Congress under Tarun Gogoi leadership has been at the helm in Assam since 2001 and faces a strong anti-incumbency. The BJP has been successfully able to make inroads into Assam over the years. In 2014 elections, Modi wave was able to sweep aside the Congress. 2014 Lok Sabha election results had thrown up the following results-
Indian National Congress- 3-29.6%
All India Democratic United Front-3-14.8%
Bhartiya Janata Party-7-36.5%
Elections to Urban Local bodies held in 2015, also demonstrated the growth of BJP in Assam. BJP dominated election results in all 3 regions of the state- Upper Assam (223/457), Lower Assam (94/194), and Barak Valley (43/95).
Assam 2016 Results: The Two Phase Elections
The two phases of elections held in Assam in 2016, mirrored the demographic and linguistic divide in the state. Phase 1 of elections, held on 4th April cover 65 seats located in Eastern half of Assam, Barak Valley and the two hill districts. Demographically speaking, Upper Assam is predominantly populated by Assamese Hindus, who form the core vote bank for the BJP. BJP won 4 of its 7 Lok Sabha seats from this region, while Congress won 1 seat. Barak Valley including the towns of Silchar and Karimganj is dominated by Bengali speaking Muslims. AIDUF and Congress won 1 seat each in this region. The Autonomous hill district of Dima Hasao and Karbi Anglong was also won by the Congress in 2014. To summarize, Phase 1 of Assam legislative elections, 2016 was made up of 8 Lok Sabha constituencies, of which 4 were won by the BJP, 3 by the Congress and 1 by the AIDUF.
The second phase of elections, held on 11th April covers 61 seats located in the Western half of the state. Of the 6 Lok Sabha constituencies that make up this region, BJP had won 3, the AIDUF had won 2 and an independent had won from the Bodo constituency of Kokrajhar. The Western half of Assam includes districts such as Dhubri, Goalpara, Barpeta, Darrang etc., which are dominated by Bengali speaking Muslims. The Bodo dominated regions of Assam are also a part of Western Assam. Indira Gandhi loyalist, Devakanta Barooah came up with the Ali-Kuli-Bongali vote bank that the Congress had carefully cultivated over the years. Ali, referring to Bengali Muslims, Kuli, referring to Adviasis and Bongalis, referring to Bengali Hindus- all three communities have drifted away from the Congress. Bengali Muslims, predominantly Bangladeshi illegal immigrants have gravitated towards Badruddin Ajmal’s AIDUF, while many tribals and Bengali Hindus have switched loyalties to BJP. Incidentally, the Ali-Kuli-Bongali votebank holds sway in at least 90 of the 126 Assembly seats.
Assam 2016 Results: What the pollsters say?
Going by the trends so far, it seems that BJP is all set to form the government in Assam. This can be attributed to the following reasons-
- Spill over of Modi wave
BJP’s success in 7 of the 14 Lok Sabha seats will inevitably influence Assam 2016 Results in Assembly Segments. While many blame the BJP for not doing enough to fullfill the tall promises made back then, there is no reason to believe that BJP has substantially lost ground ever since 2014 elections.
- Change in BJP stratgey
The entry of former Congressman Himanta Biswa Sarma (the pioneer of the INC-BPF alliance) was a masterstroke by Amit Shah. Himanta Biswa Sarma, widely seen as Tarun Gogoi’s right hand man is someone who will be able to sway voters to vote for the BJP. Additionally, the party learnt from mistakes in Delhi and Bihar and chose to stick with a local face. Sarbananda Sonowal, widely credited for success of the party in the Lok Sabha elections is a local face that the Assamese electorate can relate to.
- Mahagathbandhan
For a change, BJP has shunned arrogance and has embraced ground realities. The Alliance with the AGP, which is widely recognized as a spent force, but can be a crucial vote cutter nonetheless and the BPF has meant that the BJP has been able to consolidate the Assamese voters. The opposition Congres and the AIDUF, will inevitably end up dividing the Bengali Muslim vote. This can be a shot in the arm for the BJP led alliance.
Many observers are comparing the 2016 elections with the elections held in 1985. That election too was dominated by the illegal immigrant issue and ended up polarizing the Assamese and the immigrants, leading to a thumping AGP win. In essence, the question to be asked is this. When Assam 2016 results are finally out on 19th May, will the BJP alliance end up with a simple majority, or will Congress and Tarun Gogoi go the same way as Sheila Dikshit in Delhi. All having been said, the huge turnout, some estimating it to be close to 85% indicates that a big change is in the offing.